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rfmcdonald) wrote2008-04-21 11:56 pm
rfmcdonald) wrote2008-04-21 11:56 pm
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[BRIEF NOTE] After Nepal ...
Nepali politics, increasingly unstable after the 2001 massacre of the main branch of the Nepali royal family by the crown prince himself dead by his own hand, after the abolition of the monarchy have gotten still more interesting with the sweeping electoral successes of Nepal's Maoists at the polls, as per Dhruba Adhikari ("A Maoist in Nepal's palace") at Asia Times
Coming so soon after the abolition of the Nepali monarchy, many Nepalis seem to fear that the Maoists might launch a creeping takeover and radicalization of Nepal, slowing expanding their power beyond the limits set out in Nepali law. Consequences for the people of Nepal aside, M K Bhadrakumar 's article "Nepal triggers Himalayan avalanche" suggests that a radical Nepal could seriously destabilize neighbouring areas of South Asia.
There is also Bhutan. An isolated Buddhist monarchy that has received quite a lot of redeserved praise for the monarchy's stage-managed introduction of democracy, Bhutan has a large Nepali population produced by the long history of Nepali migration. Nepalis might even constitute the majority population of Bhutan, although the regime's manipulation of census results makes it difficult to know what exactly is going on there. Growing state-directed nationalism aimed against Nepali traditions produced a wave of political protest among Nepalis towards the end of the 1980s, this wave ending in the expulsion and denationalization of upwards of one hundred thousand ethnic Nepalis. To these day, different governments are still trying to arrange for these refugees' resettlement.
What will happen when Bhutan's ethnic Nepalis, repressed by their government because of their ethnic and religious traditions, start to get ideas from their radical ethnic metropole? Nepal's monarchy has fallen; depending on the monarchy's skill sets, Bhutan's might not be too far behind.
The political party comprising former members of the Maoist insurgency (1996-2006) succeeded in garnering support sufficient to leave its democratic rivals far behind. The scoreboard on April 10 placed the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoists) on top with 119 of 240 seats in the first-past-post segment of the poll. The nearest rival, the Nepali Congress, was trailing with 34 seats while the moderate communist party, Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML), stood third with 31 seats.
Pre-poll estimates had put the Nepali Congress ahead of others, expected to be followed by the UML. The Maoists were expected to be reduced to an unenviable 50 seats. But all such predictions failed, to the pleasant surprise of Maoist leaders. On the contrary, their party looked set to win a majority of the 335 seats filled through proportional representation of the electoral system. The remaining 26 seats in the 601-strong Constituent Assembly are to be occupied by government nominees.
"We have achieved more than what we expected," Baburam Bhattarai, a senior Maoist leader, said in a newspaper interview published on Monday. Since his party was emerging as the leader among the three main contestants, it would be logical, he said, for them to head the next coalition government whose job is to assist the assembly to draw up a constitution that replaces the one promulgated in aftermath of first pro-democracy movement of 1990.
Coming so soon after the abolition of the Nepali monarchy, many Nepalis seem to fear that the Maoists might launch a creeping takeover and radicalization of Nepal, slowing expanding their power beyond the limits set out in Nepali law. Consequences for the people of Nepal aside, M K Bhadrakumar 's article "Nepal triggers Himalayan avalanche" suggests that a radical Nepal could seriously destabilize neighbouring areas of South Asia.
The poorest country in South Asia has suddenly catapulted itself to the vanguard of democratic reform and political transformation in the region. India, which basks in the glory of its democratic way of life, at once looks a little bit archaic and tired in comparison. After 60 years of uninterrupted democratic pluralism, vast sections of Indian society are yet to realize the potentials of political empowerment. The Nepalese people have come from behind and overtaken the Indians in expanding the frontiers of "bourgeois" politics.
Politics in India still meander through alleys of caste and parochialism and eddies of religious obscurantism and Hindu nationalism. The upper-caste Hindu elites in Nepal used to share social kinships with the Indian political elites. The Maoists have upturned Nepal's entrenched caste politics. The Indian electorate is yet to explore in full measure ideology-based secular political empowerment, which is the bedrock of democratic self-rule. Unsurprisingly, India's main opposition party, the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party, which thrives on Hindu fundamentalism, has been stunned into silence. It feels let down that a country that it dearly cherished as the world's only "Hindu kingdom" has taken to secular democracy with such panache.
The Maoist government will proceed to dismantle the pillars of Nepal's feudal structure and will take recourse to radical economic and political reforms based on distributive justice and egalitarian principles. That is bound to catch the attention of impoverished Indians in the sub-Himalayan belt sooner or later. The Indian states (provinces) bordering Nepal are notorious for their misgovernance.
There is also Bhutan. An isolated Buddhist monarchy that has received quite a lot of redeserved praise for the monarchy's stage-managed introduction of democracy, Bhutan has a large Nepali population produced by the long history of Nepali migration. Nepalis might even constitute the majority population of Bhutan, although the regime's manipulation of census results makes it difficult to know what exactly is going on there. Growing state-directed nationalism aimed against Nepali traditions produced a wave of political protest among Nepalis towards the end of the 1980s, this wave ending in the expulsion and denationalization of upwards of one hundred thousand ethnic Nepalis. To these day, different governments are still trying to arrange for these refugees' resettlement.
What will happen when Bhutan's ethnic Nepalis, repressed by their government because of their ethnic and religious traditions, start to get ideas from their radical ethnic metropole? Nepal's monarchy has fallen; depending on the monarchy's skill sets, Bhutan's might not be too far behind.