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  • Beyond the Beyond's Bruce Sterling is not convinced by arguments about radical electronic music.

  • BlogTO maps the lost streets and streetnames of Toronto, disappeared in the course of street consolidation and building construction.

  • James Bow doesn't like this winter.

  • The Frailest Thing's Michael Sacasas has a couple of interesting posts about here and here.

  • Joe. My. God. celebrates Michael Sam, a NFL draftee who has come out.

  • Marginal Revolution comments on the Swiss referendum victory that will be placing limits on labour migrants from the European Union, Gideon Rachman arguing at the Financial Times that the European Union shouldn't overreact to the unilateral Swiss redefinition of the relationship.

  • Peter Rukavina notes a historic ad in the Prince Edward Island press for a New York City hotel, the Hotel Martinique--rooms for two dollars a night!

  • Towleroad notes that the star of a Disney TV show featuring a same-sex couple, a girl 5 years old, has received death threats.

  • Window on Eurasia notes the arguments of others, one arguing that the absorption of Ukraine into Russia would destabilize that country, another suggesting that Kazakhstan
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Uffe Andersen's recent Transitions Online article describing how Bosniaks--briefly, ethnically Muslim speakers of Serbo-Croatian concentrated in but not limited to Bosnia-Herzegovina--living in Serbia makes for interesting reading. It's not only on account of the differences between the Serbian and Bosniak variants of Serbo-Croatian being minor, but on account of the potential implications for borders in the area. Bosniaks in Serbia are concentrated in the Sandžak region, a region with a slight Muslim preponderance straddling the current Serbian-Montenegro border. If Bosnia came apart, what might happen here?

In late February, high school student Ajla Bugaric took the stage in this city of roughly 100,000 to recite “Why Venice Is Sinking,” the poet Abdulah Sidran’s tribute to multiculturalism and the Bosniak nation.

“I look up into the sky above Venice,” Bugaric recited. “Nothing’s changed, in the last / seven billion years. Up above, is God. He / created the universe, in the universe seven billion / worlds, in each world numberless peoples, a multitude / of languages, and for each world - a Venice.”

The poem goes on to describe the Bosniak people, Slav Muslims who make up the majority in Serbia’s Sandzak region on the border with Montenegro, as “meek” or “peaceful.” It’s a message of national identity few Bosniak children will have heard in Sandzak schools, where the curriculum has traditionally focused on the Serbian nation and where – optional – classes in their mother tongue, Bosnian, are offered only twice a week.

But that's about to change. When the new school year begins in September, Bosniak primary and secondary students in Sandzak will be able to study in Bosnian and take new “national culture” courses in Bosniak history, literature, music, and art.

The poetry reading was part of a celebration on 21 February, International Mother Language Day, to mark the launch of the pilot program in 12 schools. The day was carefully chosen to start this “new era for the Bosniak people in Serbia,” Bosniak National Council President Esad Dzudzevic said in a speech.

Responsible for shaping local policy on culture, media, and education, the council is one of the several state-financed bodies representing Serbia's ethnic minorities. Dzudzevic called the new Bosniak curriculum – nine years in the works – among its most significant achievements, returning to Bosniaks “their self-confidence and self-respect as they get to know and value their language, history, and culture.”

And despite longstanding international concern that such a change could reinforce ethnic division in a region still struggling toward reconciliation after the Balkan conflicts of the 1990s, everyday Bosniaks are also enthusiastic.
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  • Centauri Dreams' Paul Gilster considers, after Freeman Dyson, the possibility of discovering extraterrestrial civilizations not from their transmissions but rather from their artifacts.

  • Discover blog Collideascape links to a paper arguing that ecosystems are not brittle, breaking down after a certain amount of disruption, but rather that they are more resilient.

  • The Dragon's Tales' Will Baird links to a paper examining the dynamics of the oceans of Earth during periods of global glaciation, and points to another suggestions that quantum mechanical spooky action as a distance propagates very rapidly.

  • Daniel Drezner notes the numerous reasons to expect that post-Chavez Venezuela will not become an American ally any time soon, for reasons rooted in the country's politics and culture. (Cf Cuba, of course.)

  • Noel Maurer, at The Power and The Money, reports from Mexico, where officials are unhappy that the American government isn't doing much of anything to deal with the flow of illicit cash from the United States to Mexico.

  • Torontoist pointed to MGM's proposed plan for a casino complex at Exhibition Place, on the waterfront at the foot of Dufferin Street.

  • Window on Eurasia reports from Ukraine, where the notion of legalizing dual citizenship--in practice, dual Russian-Ukrainian citizenship--is controversial for Ukrainians who fear this might undermine their country's statehood and independence.

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Far Outliers' Joel has recently posted two excerpts from the recent Imperial Spain: 1469-1716, implicitly contrasting the nature of the two polities--the Kingdom of Castile and the Kingdom of Aragon--that united to form Spain. Aragon was Mediterranean, mercantile, constitutional; Castile was none of these things.

First, a representative paragraph on Castile.

The Reconquista was not one but many things. It was at once a crusade against the infidel, a succession of military expeditions in search of plunder, and a popular migration. All these three aspects of the Reconquista stamped themselves forcefully on the forms o Castilian life. In a holy war against Islam, the priests naturally enjoyed a privileged position. It was their task to arouse and sustain the fervour of the populace – to impress upon them their divinely appointed mission to free the country of the Moors. As a result, the Church possessed an especially powerful hold over the medieval Castile; and the particular brand of militant Christianity which it propagated was enshrined in the three Military Orders of Calatrava, Alcántara, and Santiago – three great creations of the twelfth century, combining at once military and religious ideals. But while the crusading ideal gave Castilian warriors their sense of participating in a holy mission as soldiers of the Faith, it could not eliminate the more mundane instincts which had inspired the earliest expeditions against the Arabs, and which were prompted by the thirst for booty. In those first campaigns, the Castilian noble confirmed to his own entire satisfaction that true wealth consisted essentially of booty and land. Moreover, his highest admiration came to be reserved for the military virtues of courage and honour. In this way was established the concept of the perfect hidalgo, as a man who lived for war, who could do the impossible through sheer physical courage and a constant effort of the will, who conducted his relations with others according to a strictly regulated code of honour, and who reserved his respect for the man who had won riches by force of arms rather than by the sweat of manual labour. This ideal of hidalguía was essentially aristocratic, but circumstances conspired to diffuse it throughout Castilian society, for the very character of the Reconquista as a southwards migration in the wake of the conquering armies encouraged a popular contempt for sedentary life and fixed wealth, and thus imbued the populace with ideals similar to those of the aristocracy.


Next, one on Aragon.

It was typical of the medieval Catalans that their pride in their constitutional achievements should naturally prompt them to export their institutional forms to any territories they acquired. Both Sardinia (its conquest begun in 1323) and Sicily (which had offered the Crown to Peter III of Aragon in 1282) possessed their own parliaments, which borrowed extensively from the Catalan-Aragonese model. Consequently, the medieval empire of the Crown of Aragon was far from being an authoritarian empire, ruled with an iron hand from Barcelona. On the contrary, it was a loose federation of territories, each with its own laws and institutions, and each voting independently the subsidies requested by its king. In this confederation of semi-autonomous provinces, monarchical authority was represented by a figure who was to play a vital part in the life of the future Spanish Empire. This figure was the viceroy, who had made his first appearance in the Catalan Duchy of Athens in the fourteenth century, when the duke appointed as his representative a vicarius generalis or viceregens. The viceroyalty – an office which was often, but not invariably, limited to tenures of three years – proved to be a brilliant solution to one of the most difficult problems created by the Catalan-Aragonese constitutional system: the problem of royal absenteeism. Since each part of the federation survived as an independent unit, and the King could only be present in one of these units at a given time, he would appoint in Majorca or Sardinia or Sicily a personal substitute or alter ego, who as viceroy would at once carry out his orders and preside over the country's government. In this way the territories of the federation were loosely held together, and their contacts with the ruling house of Aragon preserved.


The contrast may exaggerate the differences between the two polities, but difference there actually was. Arguably modern Catalonian nationalism is one of the more notable consequences of the difference.
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CTV reports on the commemoration, at the battlesite in France, of the 95th anniversary of the beginning of the Battle of Vimy Ridge. The site of a Canadian military victory over the Germans in the First World War, the success of the Canadian offensive is frequently cited as one of the signal elements in the birth of a Canadian nationality.

I have some qualms about the battle's role as a reference point--Is referencing a bloody First World War battle as key to nationhood a good thing to do? Can Vimy Ridge continue to serve as a reference point with all of Canada's veterans dead? Given the opposition of French Canada to the war what does this imply?--but I don't see any harm in the commemoration as such.

Thousands of Canadians gathered at the site of the Battle of Vimy Ridge Monday, to mark 95 years since the fight in northern France that some say was a turning point in forging Canada's identity as an independent nation.

Veterans Affairs Minister Steven Blaney joined 5,000 young Canadians for ceremonies at the Canadian National Vimy Memorial, which overlooks the Douai Plain from the highest point of Vimy Ridge.

Blaney said he saw some students with tears in their eyes as they toured sites that were once trodden by soldiers from the four divisions of the Canadian Corps that launched their assault on this day in 1917.

"They are really carrying the sacrifice…we can see the emotion," he told CTV News Channel in a phone interview from Vimy.

Standing on the Vimy monument's terrace, it's possible to look down at an expanse of fields and hills, places where Canadians battled and died. Blaney said visiting the spot was a life-changing experience.

"It's not about the triumph, or only about victory. It's about the loss of a young nation," he said. "That's why it's so important."

Canada lost 3,600 men in their bid to capture the ridge that French and British forces had already fought the two years prior to capture at a cost of some 100,000 lives.

It took four days of battle for Canada to seize control of the entire ridge.
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I found out just now that Frank Jacobs, the writer whose map-themed blog Strange Maps became the enjoyable book Strange Maps, now blogs at the New York Times, in Borderlines. He blogs there about any number of unusual borders and their particular historical circumstances, writing with his usual erudition and humour.

Two posts stand out particularly for me. The first being is his January post "The Loneliness of the Guyanas". Guyana, Surinam (formerly Dutch Guyana), and French Guyana, located on the northeastern coast of South America between Venezuela and Brazil, are incredibly isolated from their neighbours despite long being part of one western European empire or another.

The area’s relative obscurity is not just name-related. With a combined population of less than 1.5 million, the Guyana Three are hardly a hotspot for news. If you know three things about French Guiana, it’s probably these: there’s a pepper (and a Porsche) named after its capital, Cayenne; the notorious French penal colony of Devil’s Island was located off its shore; and it’s the site of the European Space Agency’s spaceport, at Kourou. Suriname? Two things: the Netherlands traded it with the English for New Amsterdam, and it’s the only Dutch-speaking country outside of Europe. Guyana? The Jonestown Massacre of 1978.

But as a set, the three entities are a significant anomaly, and a case study in the way that geology and the environment can combine with geopolitics to shape a region’s history.

Since Belize won independence in 1981, French Guiana is the last territory on the American mainland controlled by a non-American power. But in fact, all three Guyanas are Fremdkörper in Latin America: they are the only territories in the region without either Spanish or Portuguese as a national language. These are coastal countries, culturally closer to the Caribbean.

Moreover, these shores are cut off from the rest of the subcontinent by dense rainforest. And that jungle remains virgin by virtue of the Guyana Shield, a collection of mountain ranges and highlands seemingly designed to conserve the interior’s impenetrability. The shield is best known for its tepuis: enormous mesas that rise dramatically from the jungle canopy and are often home to unique flora and fauna (tepuis feature prominently in Arthur Conan Doyle’s “The Lost World” and, more recently, the animated film “Up.”)


And even more paradoxically, the borders--or in some cases, the existence--of the Guyanas have been challenged.

Jacobs' most recent post, "All Hail Sealand", takes a look at the Principality of Sealand located in the English Channel and the phenomenon of the micronation.

The Principality of Sealand is a textbook example. Literally. Open any book or Web page on micronations, and you’re likely to see its unmistakable silhouette: a two-legged marine platform. Sealand is one of the first, arguably one of the most successful, and possibly the best-known example of modern micronationalism. It’s also one of the most intriguing experiments in state-creation in history.

Start with its geography, as it were: Sealand was founded on an abandoned World War II sea fort six miles off the coast from Felixstowe, in the southern English county of Suffolk. The installation, officially known as Her Majesty’s Fort Roughs, is one of the half dozen so-called Maunsell Forts, built during World War II to provide antiaircraft defense and abandoned by the British Army in the 1950s. Predictably, the hulks of concrete and steel left to rust in the busy waterways just off the English coast were accidents waiting to happen. In the deadliest one, the Norwegian ship Baalbek collided with Nore Army Fort, in the Thames estuary between the Isle of Sheppey and Southend-on-Sea, killing four people and destroying two of the fort’s towers.

The mid-1960s saw the re-occupation of some forts, this time by pirates rather than privates. Not cutlass-and-peg-leg pirates; these were of the broadcasting variety (though some swashbuckling was involved). One of the more colorful radio pirates was Screaming Lord Sutch, who established Radio Sutch in Shivering Sands Army Fort, a collection of outlandish huts on stilts also in the Thames estuary. “Britain’s First Teenage Radio Station” was quickly rebranded Radio City by its new manager, Reginald Calvert. Other pirate stations were set up at the Red Sands Army Fort and the Sunk Head Navy Fort, all competing with the more established, ship-based pirate stations, most notably Radio Caroline.

These heady radio days were hardly halcyon. The pirates took to the sea to operate on or beyond the fringes of the law. Arguments were settled by violence. Mr. Calvert was killed in a dispute over, among other things, radio crystals. In 1965, a group of feral DJs under the command of Roy Bates ejected a rival crew from Knock John Navy Fort; it then became the base for Radio Essex, the first pirate to broadcast around the clock. The next year, a conviction for illegal broadcasting forced Mr. Bates to abandon Knock John, which was located within the three-mile radius of British territorial waters, to Fort Roughs, which was just outside.

In response, the Marine Broadcasting Act of 1967 made it illegal for pirate radios, even those outside territorial waters, to employ British citizens. Mr. Bates promptly declared independence, probably hoping to circumvent the strictures of the act. Henceforth, he would be Prince Roy, ruler of the Principality of Sealand.

Mr. Bates never got around to resurrecting his radio station. The accident of statehood turned into his core business. On the Web site, noble titles are for sale (“Lord, Lady, Baroness — from £29.99”). Until 1997 it even issued passports (Mr. Bates suspended the practice because of widespread fraud). Over the years, Sealand’s supposed sovereignty has attracted the interests of some who seek sanctuary from the law, from gambling operators to, more recently, WikiLeaks, which was examining whether to move its servers to the principality.


Sealand's struggles to gain recognition as a sovereign principality, so far fruitless despite claims, are intriguing.

Go, read.
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The protests in Libya are going to be revolutionary indeed. Will the Great Leader meet justice, rude or otherwise? I can't speculate, although the expected analogies with Romania in the late 1980s strike me as promising too much for him: Ceausescu was at least appreciated by Western powers as an autonomous power within the Soviet bloc, making things easier during the Cold War in a certain pleasant unexpected sense, but Muammar Gadaffi's post-2003 transformation just brought him up to the bare minimum expected of a responsible state.

Last night Toronto time, his son Saif al-Islam delivered a live speech to the Libyan people. Besides demonstrating the failed flirtation with Libyan dialect noted earlier and the typical contempt felt for the subjected people by the dictator, one element that came out during the live-tweeted speech was an emphasis on Libya's fragility and divisibility.

We have arrested tens of Arabs and Africans, poor people, millions were spent on them to use them by millionaire businessmen. There are people who want to establish a countries in parts of Libya to rule, Like the Islamic Emirate. One person said he is the Emir of Islamic Emirate of Darna. The Arabic Media is manipulating these events. This Arabic media is owned by Arabs who are distorting the facts but also our media failed to cover the events.

[. . .]

It is no lie that the protesters are in control of the streets now. Libya is not Tunis or Egypt. Libya is different, if there was disturbance it will split to several states. It was three states before 60 years. Libya are Tribes not like Egypt. There are no political parties, it is made of tribes. Everyone knows each other. We will have a civil war like in 1936. American Oil Companies played a big part in unifying Libya. Who will manage this oil? How will we divide this oil amongst us? Who will spend on our hospitals? All this oil will be burnt by the Baltagiya (Thugs) they will burn it. There are no people there. 3/4s of our people live in the East in Benghazi, there is no oil there, who will spend on them? Your children will not go to schools or universities. There will be chaos, we will have to leave Libya if we can't share oil. Everyone wants to become a Sheikh and an Emir, we are not Egypt or Tunisia so we are in front of a major challenge.

[. . .]

Before we let weapons come between us, from tomorrow, in 48 hours, we will call or a new conference for new laws. We will call for new media laws, civil rights, lift the stupid punishments, we will have a constitution. Even the Leader Gaddafi said he wants a constitution. We can even have autonomous rule, with limited central govt powers.

[. . .]

What is happening in Bayda and Benghazi is very sad. How do you who live in Benghazi, will you visit Tripoli with a visa? The country will be divided like North and South Korea we will see each other through a fence.

[. . .]

In any case, I have spoken to you, we uncovered cells from Egypt and Tunisia and Arabs. The Libyans who live in Europe and USA, their children go to school and they want you to fight. They are comfortable. They then want to come and rule us and Libya. They want us to kill each other then come, like in Iraq. The Tunisians and Egyptians who are here also have weapons, they want to divide Libya and take over the country.


Gadaffi is self-serving. There does seem to be something there, though. I just know not how much.

I've followed Libya intermittently here--it's been of interest to me mainly as an exemplar of a fragile state, a polity that blames pediatric HIV/AIDS epidemics on evil nurses instead of bad infectious-disease protocols, one that depends on oil to cement together the country. Unlike Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia, with their long histories of statehood within coherent and enduring boundaries (and, in the first two countries, imperialist efforts beyond those frontiers), and unlike an Algeria that gained additional coherence under French colonial rule, the very entity "Libya" was a late formation, as the dominant province of Tripolitania in the west was fused with Cyrenaica in the east on the Egyptian border and Saharan Fezzan in the southwest to form modern Libya in 1934.

Ottoman_Provinces_Of_Present_day_Libyapng


As Ahmida noted in his The making of modern Libya, Libya was a very plural society, with the two main areas of habitable land on the northern coast being widely separated by the Gulf of Sirte into two separate societies, each with its own strong linkages extending beyond modern Libya.

One has to keep in mind that prior to the colonial period and the colonial conquest in 1911, strict borders were nonexistent, as were local ties to just one state. The tribes of western Tripolitania and southern Tunisia had strong confederations and were tied to the larger Muslim community of the Maghreb and the Sahara. The state of Awlad Muhammad in Fezzan was linked to the Lake Chad region for trade and the recruitment of soldiers. It also formed a strategic refuge from the Ottoman state in time of war. Equally important to note are the strong socioeconomic ties between the tribes of Cyrenaica and western Egypt. Cyrenaican tribes viewed western Egyptian cities and the desert as both sanctuaries to escape wars and as markets for agropastoral products (12).


When Libya gained its independence, it was established as a federation of three equal regions, perhaps to counter-balance the weight of a Tripolitania that has always been home to two-thirds of the country's population and seems to hold most of Libya's oil. Interestingly, the Senussi religious order that briefly held the monarchy of independent Libya until Gadaffi's 1969 revolution was based in Cyrenaica. The consolidation of power in Tripoli hasn't helped the region. I wonder if the Gadaffi regime's incessant efforts to unify with another Arab country, at least one other, maybe even Malta, might have been an effort to continue the process of state-aggregation.

What does the origin of the protests, and their concentration in Cyrenaica, mean? Italian foreign minister and DEBKAfile alike seem to imply that this revolt might be separatist, but given the cravenly self-serving nature of the Berlusconi government's foreign policy in relationship to Libya and DEBKAfile's bias, I'm not inclined to believe this. Similarly, a division of Libya into Egyptian and Tunisian spheres of influence seems profoundly unlikely, and not only because of the disinterest of Libya's neighbours.

But what does it mean? I don't know; I can only speculate. This informed blog post goes into more detail about the background of regional issues in Libya, but comes to the same conclusion.

You?
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The Palestinian Authority has chosen an interesting method of trying to promote Palestinian statehood.

The Palestinians on Monday made a formal bid to have the no-longer-so-little town of Bethlehem, birthplace of Jesus Christ, added to UNESCO's list of World Heritage sites.

"We are very proud to announce that we have submitted the nomination file of Bethlehem: birthplace of Jesus -- Church of the Nativity and the Pilgrimage Route ... to the World Heritage Centre," tourism minister Khulud Daibes told reporters.

The addition of the West Bank town to the UNESCO list should have been almost automatic and accomplished a long time ago, but like most issues in the Holy Land, it has become entangled in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

And the Palestinians are hoping that getting the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization to recognise Bethlehem as a part of Palestinian cultural heritage will give impetus to their struggle to establish a state.

"This timing is crucial for us, it is part and parcel of our plan to end the (Israeli) occupation and build the institutions of the state of Palestine," Daibes said.

In the absence of constructive peace talks with Israel, Palestinian prime minister Salam Fayyad has been leading an effort to build institutions for a de-facto state.

They feel they have a strong case for Bethlehem's recognition when the UN committee meets to decide on the nominations in July 2012.


And UNESCO officials agree.

"Who can question that the Nativity Church is a world heritage site?" said Louise Haxthausen, head of UNESCO's Ramallah office, who has worked with the Palestinian tourism ministry in preparing the bid.

But in the end, UNESCO may not even be able to consider the bid for the same reason that it has not been added to the list to date: Palestine is not yet a recognised state.

At the same time as filing the nomination, the Palestinians have also applied for membership of the World Heritage Committee.

The tourism minister said she was hopeful the application would be accepted, though she conceded there was "no plan B."

The efforts by the Palestinian Authority--its authority limited to the West Bank, granted--to build its competence, going for more and better governance, have been getting results, with a slew of Latin American countries recognizing a Palestinian state and many western European countries upgrading their representation.

I'm quite for this. Apart from protecting a critical space for world culture, anything that brings the Palestinian Authority deeper into the international system, requiring it to fulfill legal obligations, is a good thing. Who knows? Maybe the explicit protection of a Christian site might help in a revival of the old tradition of Palestinian secular nationalism.

Besides, one thing that WikiLeaks has proven is that the Israeli government has proven decidedly unwilling to make any concessions to the Authority, notwithstanding the concessions that the Authority has offered to Israel. Israel--like Palestine, true--needs to be pressured into being an honest partner. Broader recognition of Palestinian statehood will hopefully do that.
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I've a post up at Demography Matters that draws from Paul Kagame's recent reelection in Rwanda to examine how, in the densely populated African Great Lakes area of East Africa, colonial borders and post-colonial stupidities have helped create massive humanitarian crisis after humanitarian crisis. Will the circle be broken? There's some hope, at least.
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Jeremy Page's article in the Times, "Archaeology sparks new conflict between Sri Lankan Tamils and Sinhalese", provides a sterling example of how ancient history helps inspire modern-day ethnic conflict. First, the set-up.

Recent visitors to Kilinochchi, the former capital of the Tamil Tigers, had noticed something unusual — there was a single, new building standing among the bombed-out ruins of the abandoned city in northern Sri Lanka.

It was a whitewashed Buddhist shrine, strewn with flowers. “We thought it strange because there was no one there except soldiers — the civilians had all fled,” one of the visitors said.

Officers told them that the shrine had been damaged by the Tigers and renovated by the army — recruited largely from the Sinhalese Buddhist majority — after the rebels’ defeat a year ago next month. “It’s an ancient site,” Major-General Prasad Samarasinghe, the chief military spokesman, told The Times.

Many Tamil archaeologists, historians and politicians disagree. They say that the area had been populated for centuries by the ethnic Tamil minority, which is mostly Hindu. “There was nothing there at all,” Karthigesu Sivathamby, a retired professor of Tamil history and literature at the University of Jaffna, said.


In any number of ethnic conflicts, one ethnicity's nationalists has tried to undermine the rights of another ethnicity to independence, or even to exist, by claiming that history vindicates their right to dominate a disputed territory. Jewish nationalists claim that the documented history of Jews in Palestine nullifies the rights of Palestinian Arabs to a homeland; Serb nationalists claim that the existence of a medieval Serbian empire in Kosovo means that Kosovar Albanians don't have a right to autonomy; some post-war German nationalists claimed that, despite the mass population displacements following the Second World War and the Cold War, Germany had a right to Silesia and Poland. So it is in Sri Lankan circa 2010.

The true origins of the site may never be known without independent analysis — which is impossible while the army restricts access to the area. Many Tamil community leaders fear that the shrine is part of a plan to “rediscover” Buddhist sites and settle thousands of Sinhalese across the north to undermine the Tamils’ claim to an ethnic homeland.

When the British took control of the country in 1815, they were unsure of its ancient history but soon embraced the legend of the Mahavamsa — a text written by Buddhist monks in about AD500.

It suggests that the Sinhalese are descended from Prince Vijaya, an Aryan prince exiled from northern India in about 500BC, and that Tamils did not migrate from southern India until 200 years later.

That theory — still taught in schools — underpins the Sinhalese chauvinism that ultimately drove the Tigers to launch their armed struggle for an independent homeland in 1983.

In fact, archaeologists had discredited that after independence by excavating settlements in the north that dated from long before 500BC and showed similarities to sites in southern India — suggesting a much earlier migration.

When the conflict began, they were forced to suspend excavations and many Tamil archaeologists fled into exile overseas.


Sinhala nationalism, as the International Crisis Group noted in 2007, has grown, arguably to dominate Sri Lankan public life. This might be the culmination of what Michael Roberts wrote about in his essay, the appropriation of the language of Sri Lanka's past by Sinhalese nationalists. If, as Page suggests, the Sri Lankan state is defining the island's past as Sinhala and the Tamils as--let's hope something like this world will be used--latecomers, it'll be easy enough to define Sri Lanka as basically as a Sinhalese nation-state as opposed to a bicommunal one, with Sri Lankan Tamils treated no as partners but rather as an aggregate of individuals, people who might share a culture somewhat different from the Sri Lankan norm but basically dependent on the good will of the neutrally Sinhalese Sri Lankan state. Why, history proves that this should be the case!
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Strange Maps has uploaded an interesting map of Gagauzia, an autonomous if territorially fragmented territory in southern Moldova mostly populated by--unusually enough--Christian Turcophones.

[W]hile the Moldovans were busy maintaining that they are not Romanian, some of their countrymen were keen to stress that they are not Moldovan. As with most post-soviet national identities, Moldova’s was based on the dominant ethnicity, leaving minorities wondering what they were doing in a state run by Moldovans and for Moldovans. This spurred two separate autonomist movements.

The mainly Russian region of Transnistria has seceded with support of the Russian army, and is maintained by it in in a state of phantom-nationhood. Its obscure history – and especially its strange shape – has been described on entry #311 of this blog. Another, more amicable path towards autonomy was achieved by the Gagauz, a tribe of Turkish-speaking orthodox Christians whose homeland, in the south of Moldova, received a degree of autonomy – and the promise of independence, if Moldova chooses to (re)unite with Romania.

Where the Gagauz came from, is unclear. Local historians have listed over 20 different theories on their origins. There is even uncertainty about the origin of the ethnonym itself. ‘Gagauz’ might mean ’straight nose’, it possibly refers to the Oghuz tribe, or it could be a reference to Kaykaus II, a Seljuk Sultan who settled in the area. Wrapping this riddle in a mystery is the fact that, before they migrated from Bulgaria to areas vacated by the Nogai tribe in present-day Moldova, Gagauz referred to themselves as “old Bulgars” or “true Bulgars”. The question whether the Gagauz are turkified Bulgars or christianised Turks is hardly trivial – we are, after all, in the Balkans – but very difficult to answer.

During the 20th century, the Gagauz have been independent twice, albeit very briefly. In 1906, a peasant uprising led to the Republic of Komrat, which collapsed after either 5 or 15 days (sources vary). In August 1990, Gagauzia proclaimed its autonomy, mainly in reaction to Moldova’s adoption of Moldovan as its official language. On 18 August 1991, the day of the Moscow coup attempt against Mikhail Gorbachev, Gagauzia proclaimed its independence. Transnistria would follow its example in September 1991. Both declarations were annulled by the Moldovan government.

While Transnistria and Moldova are still at odds with each other, Gagauzia came back into the fold. On 23 December 1994, the Moldovan parliament approved Gagauzia’s current special status. The size of the region was determined by referendum, three towns and 27 villages wanting to be included. The Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia (3) consists of four separate areas in the southern part of Moldova, near the border tripoint with Romania and Ukraine. The largest, northern area contains the region’s capital, Komrat.


It's worth noting, I think, that territorial governments controlled by ethnic minorities like the Gagauz and the Transnistrians are going to be especially skeptical of the idea of uniting with Romania, not least because they'd be that much relatively smaller in a Romanian-Moldovan state: 150 thousand people isn't a lot as things stand.
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Michael Kimmerman's New York Times article highlights yet another way in which Catalonia, at least its nationalists, is separating itself from Spain and Spanish cultural norms as it moves towards something like nationhood.

Here in Catalonia, this persistently separatist-minded region of Spain, bullfighting has been in trouble for ages. And the economy hasn’t helped. Ticket prices are akin to opera’s. Fights are expensive to produce. The number of bullfights plummeted across Spain this year.

But José Tomás still draws enormous crowds. For aficionados, he is the last best hope for toreo, as bullfighting is called. Reclusive, a matador of unearthly fearlessness and calm, steeped in history and mystery, he retired in 2002, at 27 and the height of his fame, only to return unexpectedly five years later in Barcelona for what turned out to be the first sellout in 20 years at the 19,000-seat Plaza Monumental, this city’s beautiful old brick-and-tile bullring.

Sunday he was back, for another special occasion: perhaps the last bullfight ever in Catalonia.

Over the last three decades or so, dwindling interest among young Catalans has combined with pressure from animal-rights advocates and from Catalan nationalists to cripple toreo in Catalonia. Across the region’s four provinces, bullrings have closed; Barcelona’s is the only one still active.

Now a referendum before the Catalan Parliament would end bullfighting here altogether. There has long been talk in this part of Spain about a total prohibition on toreo. Fans have played it down. But this time, even aficionados think a ban is likely to pass.

[. . .]

That the issue remains, above all, political is demonstrated over the border, in the Catalan region of southern France, where bullfighting is embraced as fiercely as it is opposed in Spanish Catalonia, for exactly the same separatist reasons, in that case because it is banned in Paris.

“At a point when Europe is becoming bigger and more multicultural, Barcelona is becoming smaller and more Catalan,” is how Robert Elms, a British travel writer who has lived here, saw the situation. He had come to see José Tomás and remarked, before the corrida, how the dark but magical city he once knew has become a shiny, designer-label hub that nonetheless looks increasingly inward.
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I've had this review stored for seven years. Now as good a time as any to post it.

Eugen Weber. Peasants into Frenchmen: The Modernization of Rural France 1870-1914. Stanford, California: Stanford University, 1976. 615 pp.

People tend to forget how heterogeneous--ethnically, culturally, and otherwise--modern states used to be. Canadians are probably less likely to forget than citizens of other Western states, simply because their country is prone to innumerable fissures--Québec versus English Canada, West versus East, South versus North, even downtown versus suburbs, heartland versus periphery--but other countries evidence much the same fissures. Sweden, for instance, is traditionally thought of as the epitome of homogeneity; yet, throughout its history Sweden has received so many immigrants (Walloons, Germans, Finns, Balts, Dutch) as to become a melting pot even as successive Swedish sovereigns have fought to establish uncontested boundaries. (Sweden's modern boundaries were only defined in 1815, with the cession of Finland to the Russian Empire.) This convenient memory lapse might have been produced by the Western traditions of sovereignty established with the Peace of Westphalia: Thongchai Winichakul's excellent article “Siam Mapped: Making of Thai Nationhood,” (The Ecologist, September-October 1996), explores how Thailand and the Thai national identity have been molded by successive Thai governments the better to establish Thailand's maximum sovereignty and ethnic homogeneity.

At least people seem to forget this less often than before. We can probably thank Eugen Weber's classic Peasants into Frenchmen for this. France was Europe's first modern republic, and well into the 19th century France arguably ranked as the single most powerful state in the West. Most people believe the stereotype that France is a homogeneous society, yet well into 19th century as many French citizens regularly spoke languages other than French--Breton, Occitan dialects, Basque, Catalan, Flemish, Alsatian, Corsican--instead of French, and even in French-speaking areas provincial loyalties often transcended the putative bond of the nation. The introduction of immigrant languages only complicated this picture. Renan, in his famous attempt to define the French nation, said that any nation was defined by the consent of its component communities; Weber argues that if consent was involved, it was manufactured, engineered.

We know, thanks to the research that Weber inspired, the French case is prototypical for most other nation-states. The post-Revolutionary French state was concerned with eliminating troublesome political identities, but by and large for the first half of the 19th century this was limited to the centralization of national affairs in Paris and the pursuit of national glory. Under the Second Empire and--still more--the Third Republic, active steps were made to encourage the elimination of provincial loyalties. Urbanization and industrialization helped immensely, of course, dislocating traditionally agricultural rural communities and allowing a specifically Francophone modernity to penetrate. The growth of mass media--book and magazine publishing, popular music, and the like--also played an important role in making French trendy for the non-Francophone young and diminishing the intergenerational transmission of language. Weber brought a new perspective on the school as vehicle for francophonization; though it was less than successful in homogenous non-Francophone peasant societies (Brittany is the most spectacular example), in areas even minimally open to the French language it removed the children from the traditional norms of peasant society. In one interesting passage, Weber recounts how it took generations to convince the French masses to use the metric system, with measurement in the public sphere (distances, say, and commerce) succumbing more quickly than measurements relating to one's person. I myself, living in a country that converted to metric just before me birth, use kilometres but not kilograms. And now, almost all of France's minority languages are nearing extinction, and the Fifth Republic is far more universally Francophone than any of the previous republics or monarchies of France. Where France has gone, any number of other countries have followed or are trying to follow in their different ways--Thailand, for instance. The French nationalizing project mostly worked.

If this book has a fault, it is that it does not consider the substantial foreign immigration to France. Over the lifetime of the Third Republic, perhaps five million Europeans (at first Belgians, then Spaniards and Italians, then Poles, White Russians, and Armenians, among many others) immigrated to France, making their homes in town or country, assimilating with remarkable speed. This immigration has continued to the present, of course: The Frenchman of the early 21st century is now likely to have at least one grandparent of foreign birth, just like his/her American contemporary. It seems certain that the same methods used to acculturate Limousins to French norms were used to acculturate Ligurians; yet, there was little mention of foreign immigration apart from a mention of Flemish immigrants in Nord and other passing statements. One passage, in which he describes how the folkloric traditions of certain Parisian neighbourhoods disappeared as old generations died off and new residents came in, strikes me as useful. It would have been nice if there had been a sufficiently updated version to cover this, or an updated version to cover all of the scholarly innovations, for a fuller perspective on the integration and assimilation of all the unofficial non-Francophone cultures of France in English. We can, however, look forward for followup works--Graham Robb's The Discovery of France, for instance--to carry the torch.
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Window of Eurasia's Paul Goble has come upon an interesting argument, to wit, that modern Russia can trace its institutions directly to Vladimir Lenin and the Russian Soviet and Federative Socialist Republic that he created.

Vladimir Lenin, the Bolshevik leader who seized power in Russia in 1917 has been praised and condemned for many things, but now a Bashkir scholar has celebrated him for a role few have yet acknowledged: Lenin, Rustem Vakhitov argues, deserves recognition and honor for his role as the founder of the Russian Federation.

In a 4,000-word essay posted online this week, Vakhitov, an Ufa-based academic who writes frequently on contemporary affairs, says that that Lenin’s importance for Russians today lies in his role as the creator of the Russian Federated Soviet Socialist Republic, the predecessor of the Russian Federation (contrtv.ru/common/3111/).

Arguing that "the cult of Lenin" in Soviet times was not only something the man himself did not want but also has gotten in the way of focusing on what Lenin actually did, Vakhitov says that the best way to begin is by asking the question: "When did the state by the name of the Russian Federation in which we live arise?"

"Many people consider that this took place in 1991 after the collapse of the USSR, but this is not true," Vakhitov insists, adding that in fact "on December 25, 1991, the Supreme Soviet of the RSFSR passed legislation according to which the RSFSR was renamed [Vakhitov’s italics] as the Russian Federation."

In support of that contention, the Ufa scholar notes that the law began with the following words: "The Supreme Soviet of the RSFSR affirms: 1. The State the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR) from now on will be called the Russian Federation (RF)," as it is known to this day.

What that means, Vakhitov continues, is that in 1991, the RSFSR simply changed its name, out of which were eliminated the words ‘soviet’ and ‘socialist’ as an indication that the Russian Republic had changed its political system and state ideology." "But," he continues, "no new state arose as a result."


This points to a fascinating quasi-duality about modern Russia. Russia is the heir apparent to the Soviet empire in its entirety: the United Nations Security Council seat, the military might including of the nuclear arsenal, the Soviet interpretation of the Second World War and its associated traumas, the claimed sphere of influence in the former Soviet Union and even beyond, and so on. Russia is clearly the superpower's successor. But what is it? At the same time, Russia is very nearly as much of a nation-state in formation as (say) Ukraine, since as Hélène Carrère d'Encausse pointed out in her The End of the Soviet Empire, that while the smaller republics of the Soviet Union had their own national cultural and other organizations, the Russian federative republic often lacked these entirely. The republics each had their own branch of the Soviet Academy of Sciences, for instance, while Russia had to wait until 1991 to get its own Russian Academy of Sciences. Russian national identity, in this reading, is uniquely troubled in a way that didn't afflict the cores of other multinational empires, since there never was a Russia at all as distinguished from Estonia or Ukraine or Tajikistan. At least, not until Lenin came around.

One obvious outcome of all of this is that Russian national identity will revolve even more tightly than it has around the Soviet experience, since as Vakhitov points out Russia as such owes its existence to the Soviet experience. Another, equally obvious, outcome of this is that neighbouring nation-states with differing views on the Soviet experience will come into conflict with Russia.

Thoughts?
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Margaret Wente's column in The Globe and Mail says pretty much what I think about the pointlessness of trying to modernize Afghanistan.

I want little girls to go to school as much as anyone else. But the Afghan mission has morphed far beyond its original intent. Now, it's nation-building. To secure the terrain until the Afghans are able to help themselves will require more boots on the ground, more training of police, more civilian aid, more democracy promotion and a whole bunch more money. No one has yet been able to explain how we will prevent the next few billion dollars worth of aid from disappearing into the pockets of corrupt government officials and useless projects, the way the last few billion did.

Western intervention is fuelled by the delusion that, once we show them the way, Afghans will want to be more or less like us. But what if they don't? Take Ustad Mohammad Akbari, a leader of the politically crucial Hazara minority. In his view, the new law actually protects women's rights. "Men and women have equal rights under Islam, but there are differences in the way men and women are created," he explained. "Men are stronger and women are a little bit weaker; even in the West, you do not see women working as firefighters."


The Hazara themselves, as the Taliban would have pointed out, are people who in denying Islam with their heretical Shi'a beliefs and so merit the sort of severe punishment that will bring them back into the fold. According to the natural order of things, of course.

Are the only substantive differences between the Karzai government and the Taliban the former's support by foreign governments and non-Pushtun? If so, what reason is there for Canada--and other nations, of course, and for NATO as a whole--to play any role in Afghanistan more extensive than that of guaranteeing its government won't sponsor international terrorism? If 117 Canadian soldiers had to die in Afghanistan, surely they could have died for a cause that would not have been so easily falsified. "Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?"
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After I was recently corrected for mistakenly referring to Queen Elizabeth II as Queen of the United Kingdom in reference to her role in Canada, I decided to go to Wikipedia to read about the Canadian monarchy. There is such a thing, although it's complex. I found the article on the Commonwealth realms to be particularly helpful. Canada is "one of 16 sovereign states within the Commonwealth of Nations that each have Elizabeth II as their respective monarch. The realms, though completely sovereign, are united in that they share one monarch as their own. These countries have a combined area totalling 18.8 million km² (excluding Antarctic claims), and a combined population of 131 million. All but about 2 million live in the six largest, namely the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Papua New Guinea, New Zealand and Jamaica."

The relationship of these sovereign states has created the scenario wherein the Crown has both a separate and a shared character[dubious – discuss], being an institution that operates separately within the jurisdiction of each Commonwealth realm, with the Queen in right of each country being a distinct legal person, acting on the advice only of the government of that state. The Crown is thus unitary through its shared character, but divided in its jurisdictional operation, meaning that in different contexts, Crown may mean the Crown as shared or the Crown in each realm considered separately.

The monarchy is therefore no longer an exclusively British institution, although it may often be called British for historical reasons, for convenience, or for political (usually republican) purposes. One Canadian constitutional scholar, Dr. Richard Toporoski, stated on this: "I am perfectly prepared to concede, even happily affirm, that the British Crown no longer exists in Canada, but that is because legal reality indicates to me that in one sense, the British Crown no longer exists in Britain: the Crown transcends Britain just as much as it does Canada. One can therefore speak of 'the British Crown' or 'the Canadian Crown' or indeed the 'Barbadian' or 'Tuvaluan' Crown, but what one will mean by the term is the Crown acting or expressing itself within the context of that particular jurisdiction". Expressing this concept, through the proclamation of Elizabeth II's new titles in 1952, in each realm the Queen is known by the title appropriate for that realm; for example, in Barbados she is known as "Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, Queen of Barbados," or, simply, the Queen of Barbados.

As a consequence of this relationship, as per the preamble to the Statute of Westminster, any alterations to the line of succession to the throne must be approved by the parliaments of all the realms in order to guarantee continuity of a single monarch.[14] For example, there have been suggestions of removing the religious requirements from the Act of Settlement, which currently defines the succession.[15] In practice, since each realm is a sovereign state, this requires the voluntary cooperation of all 16 of the countries. Alternatively, a realm could choose to end its participation in the shared monarchy.

[. . .]

Though the Queen's constitutional position is virtually identical in each realm, she lives in the United Kingdom. Consequently, the constitutional duties she personally exercises as Queen of the UK are in other realms generally performed by a Governor-General, who serves as her representative. The extent to which these duties are explicitly assigned to the Governor-General, rather than the Queen, varies from realm to realm, but the Queen does act personally in right of any of her other realms when required, for example when issuing Letters Patent, or on occasions of significant political importance. Similarly, the monarch usually performs ceremonial duties in the Commonwealth realms to mark historically significant events during visits at least once every five or six years, meaning she is present in a number of her realms outside the UK every other year, or on behalf of those realms abroad. She is also represented at various ceremonial events throughout all the realms by other members of the Royal Family, such as the Queen's children, grandchildren or cousin, who also reside in the United Kingdom, but act on behalf of the government of the particular realm they're in; meaning the Royal Family also has both a unitary and divided nature. The other realms may receive two to three such visits each year.


So, it's kind of confusing but can actually be figured out. I just find it kind of sad that Canada has a monarchy but it isn't a kingdom. John A. MacDonald wanted Canada to become a kingdom, mind, but Britain resented on the grounds that it was premature and potentially upsetting to the Americans. Pity, that.
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Several years ago, I'd written about how modern Slovenia was very substantially a product of Yugslavia after the Second World War, which created its modern borders and its state institutions while allowing Slovenia to evolve into a freer society than anywhere else in Communist Europe. Much more recently, I've written about Slovenia's Ten-Day War which saw a vastly outgunned Slovenia handily defeat the Yugoslav People's Army and win its independence, as accurately described at this Slovenian government website.

According to rough estimates, the YPA had 44 casualties and 146 wounded, and the Slovenian side 19 casualties and 182 wounded. 12 foreign citizens were killed. There is no data available as to the number of Slovenian soldiers killed while attempting to escape from the YPA. 4693 YPA servicemembers and 252 federal police officers were captured. There were 72 minor and major armed conflicts during the war. 31 YPA tanks, 22 personnel carriers and 6 helicopters were destroyed, damaged or confiscated, along with 6,787 infantry, 87 artillery and 124 air defence weapons according to YPA inspections.


This leads to a natural question: How did Slovenia manage to develop a military while it was still part of Yugoslavia? Blame the Territorial Defense Forces. After the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia, Tito's Yugoslavia adopted the policy of creating a second military force in addition to the standing army, a collection of militias each run by a different Yugoslavian federal unit. Based on the model of the Partisans of the Second World War, the Territorial Defense Forces would mobilize the populations of each federal unit to fight in a wide-spread partisan war that, hopefully, would help see Yugoslavia liberated from its foreign invaders. Tensions between the TDF and the Yugoslav People's Army saw the former placed under the much closer supervision of the YPA, even though the federal units were charged with paying the costs of the TDFs.

Starting at the end of the 1980s, this changed when the Slovenian government passed legislation in August 1990 placing the TDF under republican control after creating secret parallel command structure within the TDF . Girded by high morale, by June 1991 Slovenia was prepared on multiple fronts.

Slovenia [. . . ] benefitted from excellent intelligence on the JNA's military strategy. Slovenes who served in the JNA gave sensitive information to senior Slovene military and political leaders. The information allowed the Territorial Defense forces to wage surprise guerrilla attacks against the JNA. Slovenia also demonstrated excellent coordination between its military and political-media staff. It successfully portrayed itself as the victim of a massive attack by the XNA. The Territorial Defense forces purposely attacked helicopters and tanks in an effort to show the JNA as thrusting its superior weaponry against the under-armed Slovenes. These attacks galvanized the world media and centered attention on Slovenia's resistance. At the same time, Slovenian political leaders cultivated diplomatic ties with key European allies, notably Germany and Austria, who spoke out against the JNA's moves. Overall, the short war illustrated a well-planned military operation by the Territorial Defense forces, coupled with a highly effective political and diplomatic strategy.


The highly successful guerrilla attacks mounted against Yugoslav military targets in the full view of international media (of the dozen foreign citizens killed, something like four were journalists) . The incompetence of the Yugoslav military--sending in tanks without providing infantry support, going in without any very clear goals, above all not believing that the Slovenians had the will to fight--ensured a pretty thorough defeat.

By all accounts, Yugoslav Army units are surrounded by Slovenian territorial defense forces behind barricades throughout the breakaway republic and are often without regular supplies of food and water, and oftencut off from their headquarters and from access to medical assistance.

"We are practically surrounded by the territorial defense," Col. Jovan Miskov, second in command of Yugoslavia's main Ljubljana barracks, said at a news conference on Sunday.


As I've said before, what particularly interests me about the Ten Day War is its sheer post-modern nature, with an underarmed political unit using asymmetric warfare (military forces and media publicity) quite successfully against a much larger conventional force and achieving its goal of separation. The mass secessions in Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, and the Soviet Union didn't trigger a wave of mass secessions elsewhere: Catalonia remains Spanish, Québec is Canadian, Kashmir is Indian despite everything and Kabyles remain Algerian, Puerto Rico is heading towards statehood, and by all accounts the Western Australians and Ryukyuans are happy enough in their own states.

I do wonder if Slovenia's military example has inspired other secessionist movements interested in imitating Slovenia's very highly contingent success and believing that it can be transplanted to their situations despite everything. (The Tamil Tigers, maybe?)

Thoughts?
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Nepali politics, increasingly unstable after the 2001 massacre of the main branch of the Nepali royal family by the crown prince himself dead by his own hand, after the abolition of the monarchy have gotten still more interesting with the sweeping electoral successes of Nepal's Maoists at the polls, as per Dhruba Adhikari ("A Maoist in Nepal's palace") at Asia Times

The political party comprising former members of the Maoist insurgency (1996-2006) succeeded in garnering support sufficient to leave its democratic rivals far behind. The scoreboard on April 10 placed the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoists) on top with 119 of 240 seats in the first-past-post segment of the poll. The nearest rival, the Nepali Congress, was trailing with 34 seats while the moderate communist party, Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML), stood third with 31 seats.

Pre-poll estimates had put the Nepali Congress ahead of others, expected to be followed by the UML. The Maoists were expected to be reduced to an unenviable 50 seats. But all such predictions failed, to the pleasant surprise of Maoist leaders. On the contrary, their party looked set to win a majority of the 335 seats filled through proportional representation of the electoral system. The remaining 26 seats in the 601-strong Constituent Assembly are to be occupied by government nominees.

"We have achieved more than what we expected," Baburam Bhattarai, a senior Maoist leader, said in a newspaper interview published on Monday. Since his party was emerging as the leader among the three main contestants, it would be logical, he said, for them to head the next coalition government whose job is to assist the assembly to draw up a constitution that replaces the one promulgated in aftermath of first pro-democracy movement of 1990.


Coming so soon after the abolition of the Nepali monarchy, many Nepalis seem to fear that the Maoists might launch a creeping takeover and radicalization of Nepal, slowing expanding their power beyond the limits set out in Nepali law. Consequences for the people of Nepal aside, M K Bhadrakumar 's article "Nepal triggers Himalayan avalanche" suggests that a radical Nepal could seriously destabilize neighbouring areas of South Asia.

The poorest country in South Asia has suddenly catapulted itself to the vanguard of democratic reform and political transformation in the region. India, which basks in the glory of its democratic way of life, at once looks a little bit archaic and tired in comparison. After 60 years of uninterrupted democratic pluralism, vast sections of Indian society are yet to realize the potentials of political empowerment. The Nepalese people have come from behind and overtaken the Indians in expanding the frontiers of "bourgeois" politics.

Politics in India still meander through alleys of caste and parochialism and eddies of religious obscurantism and Hindu nationalism. The upper-caste Hindu elites in Nepal used to share social kinships with the Indian political elites. The Maoists have upturned Nepal's entrenched caste politics. The Indian electorate is yet to explore in full measure ideology-based secular political empowerment, which is the bedrock of democratic self-rule. Unsurprisingly, India's main opposition party, the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party, which thrives on Hindu fundamentalism, has been stunned into silence. It feels let down that a country that it dearly cherished as the world's only "Hindu kingdom" has taken to secular democracy with such panache.

The Maoist government will proceed to dismantle the pillars of Nepal's feudal structure and will take recourse to radical economic and political reforms based on distributive justice and egalitarian principles. That is bound to catch the attention of impoverished Indians in the sub-Himalayan belt sooner or later. The Indian states (provinces) bordering Nepal are notorious for their misgovernance.


There is also Bhutan. An isolated Buddhist monarchy that has received quite a lot of redeserved praise for the monarchy's stage-managed introduction of democracy, Bhutan has a large Nepali population produced by the long history of Nepali migration. Nepalis might even constitute the majority population of Bhutan, although the regime's manipulation of census results makes it difficult to know what exactly is going on there. Growing state-directed nationalism aimed against Nepali traditions produced a wave of political protest among Nepalis towards the end of the 1980s, this wave ending in the expulsion and denationalization of upwards of one hundred thousand ethnic Nepalis. To these day, different governments are still trying to arrange for these refugees' resettlement.

What will happen when Bhutan's ethnic Nepalis, repressed by their government because of their ethnic and religious traditions, start to get ideas from their radical ethnic metropole? Nepal's monarchy has fallen; depending on the monarchy's skill sets, Bhutan's might not be too far behind.
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Partly because I'm interested in it as inspiration for an ongoing writing project, I've been reading up on Slovenia's war of independence, the Ten Day War, fought in June 1991 a year after a declaration of independence. (The previous link was to Wikipedia; the Slovenian defense ministry's version is here.) The main thing that strikes me about this war of independence is how neatly and successfully it was managed, with barely more than a hundred casualties and a duration of just ten days, and a negotiated conclusion (the Yugoslav military's withdrawal, the postponement of Slovenia's declaration) that both sides followed.

Why did things go so well? There had been slow progress towards independence beforehand, inspired by Milosevic's mobilization of Serb nationalism, aided by several pre-existing factors (a functioning democracy, a strong civil society, relative economic success, a relative lack of ethnic conflicts) went into this. Slovenes had succeeded in building a nation within Communist Yugoslavia, consolidating a national territory and developing an advanced economy closely associated with western Europe thanks to Yugoslavia's neutralism. There was ideological tumult in the 1970s, but as John Allcock suggests that Slovenia was able to avoid the ethnic polarization of the other Yugoslav territories because, without any notable ethnic divisions and the common acceptance of Slovenian nationalism, ethnicity simply wasn't an option. After Tito's 1980 death, a Slovenia advantaged by the above factors was able to liberalize still further to become the most liberal Communist territory in Europe. In 1987, the music group Laibach could release a hit single ("Sympathy for the Devil") that explicitly suggested that Satan organized the Bolshevik Revolution. No one seems to have done anything about that. By the time that ethnic conflict had begun to open up on multiple fronts elsewhere in Yugoslavia (Serbs against Albanians, Croats against Serbs, et cetera), Slovenia was internally secure and facing only outside threats.

This relaxed liberalism, in turn, helped produce a pragmatically low-intensity war doctrine (forces armed with light defensive weaponry, attacking vulnerable military units, defending symbolic targets) alongside a very media-savvy approach succinctly described by the war's Wikipedia article.

The actions of Slovenia's forces were largely dictated by the military strategy devised some months before and were tightly integrated with an equally detailed media management plan. An international media centre was established prior to the outbreak of conflict with Jelko Kacin designated to act as information minister and Slovenia's public face to the world. The Slovenian government successfully presented the conflict as a case of a "David versus Goliath" struggle between an emerging democracy and an authoritarian communist state, and the columns of Yugoslav tanks inevitably brought to mind the events of the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 only two years earlier. This won considerable international sympathy and favourable media coverage for the Slovenian cause.


It likely didn't help Yugoslavia's matters that several of the 14 casualties among foreigners were journalists. People like the late Canadian diplomat James Bissett complained that Slovenia (and Croatia) made extensive use of Western news media to gain support for independence, criticisms delivered at greater length at The Emperor's Clothes website at www.tenc.net, but that's hardly a realistic critique. Just look what Americans did to gain their national independence. Leaving aside the media superstar status that Thomas Paine got for his pamphlet Common Sense, Benjamin Franklin's stay in the salons of Paris helped mobilize French support for the nascent United States.

The result of this successful, well-planned war was a successful, well-planned country. Slovenia might have lost out from independence if Yugoslavia hadn't been heading towards the abyss. As it happened, Slovenia managed to extricate itself neatly from Yugoslavia and more on to become a generally normal small rich European nation. There were no mass executions or other atrocities, no wide-spread impoverishment, no very significant embittering of populations.

The chance configuration of factors allowing for a relatively painless war of independence is unique to Slovenia, but many of these tactics (military actions which try to avoid frontal assaults or attacks on civilians, the construction of legalistic cases and mobilization of mass support in favour of independence, the mobilization of international mass media support). It's interesting to see how, driven by local and contingent factors, Slovenia ended up producing a prototype for the post-modern war of independence with worldwide relevance.
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Reuters' Simon Denyer recently had an interesting article published examining the close links between Tibet and the adjacent independent Himalayan state of Bhutan, "In Bhutan, Tibetan refugees yearn to join protests".

In a remote corner of the Himalayas, a small Tibetan refugee community felt helpless as it watched protests erupt all over the world against Chinese rule in their homeland. For in the tiny Buddhist kingdom of Bhutan, ethnically, culturally and linguistically close to its giant northern neighbour Tibet, demonstrations are not allowed. Young Tibetans were even reluctant to give their names for fear of trouble.

"We want to demonstrate but we don't have the right to, and that is very bad for us," said a 24-year-old who gave her name as Tenzing. "If we could, people would know that Tibet belongs to Tibetans."

Sixty years ago, Tibet and Bhutan were both reclusive feudal societies virtually shut to the outside world, under absolute rulers viewed as close to Buddha in most people's eyes.

But after Tibet was swallowed up by China, Bhutan befriended India and embarked on a gradual path of modernisation and opening up that culminated in last week's parliamentary elections, ending a century of royal rule and ushering in democracy.

Despite the advances, Bhutan remains a tightly controlled society where criticism of the elite, let alone protests, is almost unheard of.

Tibetan refugees were welcomed into Bhutan in the 1950s and given land by the king. In the small village of Hongtsho in central Bhutan, Tibetan families grow potatoes and have planted apple orchards, selling their produce by the roadside.

[. . .]

Despite their cultural links, Bhutan's people hardly seem to care about the problems of their Tibetan neighbours, a function of their long isolation in the Himalayas.

But Tibetans say they do mix with Bhutanese people and at least are free to practice their religion inside the country.

"As a refugee life goes, this is not too bad," said one young man.

Yet parents usually send their children off from a relatively young age to be educated in Indian towns like Darjeeling and Dharamsala, where Tibetan schools teach them their language and culture and give them the chance for higher education.

Bhutan has a population of less than 700,000 people and after an influx of Tibetans in 1959 it closed its northern borders for fear of being swamped. New refugees are no longer welcome.


The particular complex of beliefs and rituals which make up Tibetan Buddhism has never been confined to Tibet proper. Tibetan Buddhism has, of course, been practiced in ethnic Tibetan communities outside of Tibet proper; it has been practiced among ethnic Mongols from Russia's Kalmykia to Chinese Inner Mongolia; and, it has been practiced in a collection of nearly independent polities on the southern slopes of the Himalayas, including the now fully independent state of Bhutan.

Bhutan is actually the only one of these southern Himalayan Tibetan Buddhist polities that has survived in recognizable form to the present day. Tibet, as pointed out at Global Voices Online, is a territory that has been caught between the competing interests of India and China, but much the same can be said for its wider cultural sphere. After its mid-19th century conquest, Ladakh has remained part of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir to this day. Neighbouring Sikkim, once like Bhutan an autonomous kingdom under the protection of first Britain then India, was was annexed to India in 1975 because of its mostly Hindu and ethnic Nepali population and a weak monarchy. Tibet to the north provides, as the article notes, another very unambiguous demonstration of the problems that ambiguous sovereignty can provide in hard times.

This long list of examples doubtless explains why the Bhutanese monarchy has been so motivated to gain Bhutan international recognition as a functional independent state. It explains why the Bhutanese government is unwilling to risk provoking China over Tibet, and why Bhutan has been trying to cultivate positive attention in the West through its stage-managed introduction of "democracy." It also explains Bhutan's nasty mistreatment of Bhutan's own population of Hindu ethnic Nepalis. The individuals who pushed Bhutan to its current position have to be credited for their determination and their competency if for nothing else.

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