[BRIEF NOTE] On Greco-Turkish reconciliation and the rise of Turkey

[rfmcdonald]

It's almost a truism that Greece-Turkey relations are fraught. They have been since the first Greek uprisings against Turkish rule in the early 19th century, and they have remained inflamed since by any number of crises including the 1923 population exchanges between Greece and Turkey following the very bloody Greco-Turkish war and the and the 1974 Turkish invasion of Cyprus. Now, IPS News suggests that Greco-Turkish relations are set to improve, as a rising Turkey implements a (so far) successful foreign policy aimed at reducing conflicts with its neighbours. Reconciliation seems like a real possibility.

Ioannis Grigoriadis, professor at the Bilkent University in Turkey and an associate of the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy Studies (ELIAMEP), circulated an analytical report days before Erdogan’s visit arguing that Turkey’s return as a strategic regional force would have enormous impact on the geopolitical balance.

Grigoriadis is one of many analysts who see Turkey’s return as a regional power rooted in Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s strategic doctrine that envisages the country as a core economic regional power and a transit point between East and West in future. It is a sophisticated foreign policy strategy that promotes the country’s economic interests while also attempting to heal Turkey’s old wounds.

"Davutoglu's doctrine talks about "zero problems with neighbours. It remains to be seen whether any substance will be put to this in the following months’’, Grigoriadis told IPS.

"More attention has been given to Turkish relations with Armenia, Syria, and Iraq rather than with Greece. Joint Greek-Turkish initiatives in the Balkans could not be precluded, yet where work is mostly needed is in the Aegean question, as well as Cyprus," he said.

Offering to mediate between the West and Iran over its nuclear ambitions, and taking on Israel for its aggression against Lebanon and Palestine, have also been spectacular foreign policy decisions that attracted attention internationally.

But Turkey’s silent return in the Balkans has been equally effective. During the last decade it has established itself, politically and economically, as a key factor in Bosnia, Kosovo and Albania, successfully playing on cultural proximity.

Turkey’s new philosophy has led it to improve relations and acquire strategic assets beyond traditional boundaries. Two weeks ago Turkish investors declared interest in purchasing the Serbian national carrier JAT.

Emrullah Uslu, a Turkish terrorism expert and currently an associate at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Utah said: "Davutoglu and the governmental Justice and Development Party (AKP) leadership consider Turkey’s economic infrastructure to be the strongest in the region. Therefore, peace within the region would benefit the Turkish economy".

This represents something of a power shift in the area of the Balkans. Since the end of Communism Greece has been the main regional centre, a leading foreign investor particularly in the banking sector and a major destination for Balkan emigrants, particularly emigrants from areas and communities with close links to Greece, like the Greek diaspora in the Black Sea area and southern Albania. Turkey's rise is changing the dynamics.

In a sense, the relationship between Greece and Turkey is like that of Taiwan and China. Relative to Turkey Greece is a maritime power, separated from Turkey by the Aegean Sea and with well-defended insular holdings near the frontier, able to successfully hold of its neighbours thanks to a significantly greater wealth per capita that allows it to defend its well-defined frontiers with a relatively more sophisticated military and favourable geography. China's economic growth of late has threatened Taiwan's defensive position, helping to encourage a rapprochement based on economic factors. So too Greece and Turkey?