A Bit More Detail

• D-Brief considers the possibility that human food when eaten by bears, by shortening their hibernation periods, might contribute to their premature aging.


• The Everyday Sociology Blog considers the political power of sports and of music.


• Far Outliers notes the rising bourgeoisie of Calcutta in the 1990s.


• Steve Roby at The Fifteenth makes the case for Discovery as worthy of being considered Star Trek, not least because it is doing something new.


• L.M. Sacasas at The Frailest Thing notes how our tendency to track our lives through data can become dystopian.


• JSTOR Daily notes that Illinois is starting to become home to resident populations of bald eagles.


• Language Log takes a look at Ubykh.


• Lawyers, Guns and Money notes a Trumpist Canadian border guard.


• The New APPS Blog notes how helicopter parenting is linked to rising levels of inequality.


• The NYR Daily considers Jasper Johns.


• At Out of Ambit, Diane Duane considers the rhythms and cycles of life generally and of being a writer specifically.


• Otto Pohl looks at how people from the different German communities of southeast Europe were, at the end of the Second World War, taken to the Soviet Union as forced labourers.


• Steve Maynard writes at Spacing, in the aftermath of the death of Jackie Shane, about the erasure and recovery of non-white queer history in Toronto.


• Starts With A Bang's Ethan Siegel explains what would happen if someone fell into a blackhole.


• Window on Eurasia notes that the number of immigrants to Russia are falling, with Ukrainians diminishing particularly in number while Central Asian numbers remain more resistant to the trend.


• Arnold Zwicky notes the telling omission of sexual orientation as a protected category re: hate crimes.

• This report from the Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso noting the sheer scale of emigration in parts of rural Albania, proceeding to the point of depopulating entire territories, tells a remarkable story.


• This opinion suggesting that, due to the breakdown of the economy of Venezuela, we will soon see a refugee crisis rivaling Syria's seems frighteningly plausible.


• Politico Europe notes that, in the case of Latvia, where emigration has helped bring the country's population down below two million, there are serious concerns.


• OZY tells the unexpected story of hundreds of young Namibian children who, during apartheid, were raised in safety in Communist East Germany.


• Many Chinese are fleeing the pollution of Beijing and other major cities for new lives in the cleaner environments in the southern province of Yunnan. The Guardian reports.

• blogTO looks at deserted Mirvish Village.


• Crooked Timber reenages with the Rachel Carson and DDT myth.


• The Crux looks at the Mandela Effect, exploring false memories.


• Dangerous Minds makes the case for the musical genius of Bobbie Gentry.


• From the Heart of Europe's Nicholas Whyte recounts his visit to Albania's bunker museum.


• Lawyers, Guns and Money notes Brazil's retirement of its only aircraft carrier.


• The LRB Blog looks at the extent and speed of events in the Trump Administration.


• Marginal Revolution engages with a book examining France's carving out a "cultural exception" in international trade agreements.


• Personal Reflections' Jim Belshaw reports on the passing of rulership of the Australian micronation of Hutt River.


• Peter Rukavina shares good advice for visiting museums: visit only what you can take in.


• Window on Eurasia looks at Russian Orthodox Church opposition to a certain kind of Russian civic nationality, and argues Russia is losing even its regional superpower status.


• Yorkshire Ranter Alex Harrowell reports on how local councils in the United Kingdom are speculating on commercial property.

I was shocked to learn that in Plovdiv, the country’s second largest city, an LGBT film festival was violently disrupted by hooligans. The film festival (the city’s first) had already been a source of controversy, with the local Metropolitan of the Bulgarian Orthodox Church declaring that LGBT people “destroy the souls of our children”—rhetoric that is not at all uncommon here. When a local soccer club—powerful social groups in a country obsessed with the sport—denounced the festival as “gay propaganda,” the mayor of the city responded not by defending principles of human rights or freedom of expression, but instead by declaring himself “categorically opposed to all events that divide the citizens of Plovdiv.”

[. . .]

Over the last ten days, Sofia has experienced large anti-government protests each evening, with thousands of people marching peacefully through the city center. Acknowledging the burden placed on the city by the demonstrations, and told that security could not be guaranteed, the organizers of Sofia Pride decided to postpone the parade that had been planned for Saturday. Much to their surprise, an anti-gay parade took place as scheduled, with a few dozen demonstrators walking down Vitosha Boulevard, the center of the city’s fashionable shopping district.

Saturday evening, a small group of LGBT activists took part in the anti-government protests, carrying signs bearing messages such as “Let’s be united,” “I’m protesting without homophobia or xenophobia,” and “Gay, bi, hetero, trans: Love each other.” (#Обичайтесебе, “love one another,” is a hashtag associated with the anti-government protests.) They also passed out a large number of small flags, featuring on one side the Bulgarian flag and on the other a rainbow peace flag.

I was in the protest on Saturday, but among the tens of thousands of protesters I never managed to connect with this group. According to my friends’ reports and those that have appeared in the press, while these activists were sitting on the ground beside Eagle Bridge, a landmark of the city and a major gathering place for protesters, a man grabbed many of their signs and destroyed them. They were then harassed by several other demonstrators and accused of passing out “gay propaganda.” The police intervened to tell the LGBT protesters to “stop being provocative” and to go home; they then left the group alone and unprotected.

When the hooligans returned, one LGBT activist was physically assaulted, though not injured, and serious violence was only averted by the intervention of passers-by. By all accounts it was a terrifying moment, and one that could have been terribly worse.

• Bad Astronomy's Phil Plait notes the discovery that the supermassive black hole at the center of galaxy NGC 1365 is rotating at nearly the speed of light. What does it mean?


• BlogTO features vintage photos of Queen Street East.


• Crasstalk's TS posts a followup to the spreading scandals besetting the Canadian Senate. Oh, but for a unicameral federal legislature!


• Daniel Drezner notes that despite a consensus among economists that financial austerity isn't working, politicians remain attached to the idea.


• Eastern Approaches had a couple of posts recently touching on Germany's relationship with its eastern neighbours, one noting a historic address to the Bavarian state parliament by the Czech prime minister expressing regret for the post-Second World War expulsion of the Sudeten Germans, the second observing Germany's critical role in managing the European integration of the Balkans.


• Geocurrents' Martin Lewis notes that well-governed Ghana still sees ethnic splits reproducing themselves in electoral politics.


• At the New APPS Blog, John Protevi finds fault with Foucault's sympathetic treatment of a 19th century Frenchman charged with sexual irregularities. What of the man's partner (or victim)?


• Joshua Foust frames Kazakhstan's foreign policy initiatives in the context of an economically prosperous country trying to translate wealth to power.


• Towleroad features a map of New York City showing where different non-English geotagged tweets were made. Spanish predominates over other languages, unsurprisingly, although English tweets outnumbered non-English tweets by thirty to one.

Nikolic promised during his campaign that "Serbia will not stray from its European path." Be that as it may, remaining on the “European path” will prove difficult if the new President begins to exploit the status of both Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Indeed, his election may encourage Serbian leaders in northern Kosovo and in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska to harden their positions and press more vehemently toward secession.

Nikolic's other maneuver will be to pivot toward Russia in order to gain financial and political backing. On his first foreign trip, Nikolic was warmly received in the Kremlin where President Vladimir Putin confirmed that the Serbs were Russia's spiritual brothers. But despite all this melodrama, the relationship between Moscow and Belgrade over many years has been marked by mutual exploitation rather than enduring love.

[. . . U]nlike Milosevic, who manipulated Russia to his advantage, Serbian nationalists today seem naive and gullible. Nikolic once asserted that he would prefer to see Serbia as a Russian province rather than as a member of the EU. The Kremlin now views Serbia as a useful surrogate in the middle of the Balkans, where even its traditional ally, Bulgaria, has joined NATO and rejected several exploitative Russian energy deals.

Serbia is promoted by the Kremlin as a bastion against American influence throughout Southeastern Europe. Combining pressure, incentive, and blackmail, Russian officials have warned Belgrade that any move toward NATO membership would result in a loss of Russian support for not recognizing Kosovo. Moscow would also prefer that Belgrade remain outside the EU to avoid implementing its legal standards, especially in business transparency. Instead, Moscow proposes that Serbia join its opaque Eurasian economic bloc.

While in Moscow, Nikolic also claimed that he may recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states despite Georgia’s protests. Serbia’s parliament will evidently consider formal recognition during the coming weeks. Moscow has tried to entice and cajole various allies into recognizing the two breakaway territories, with almost no success. Although Serbia may calculate it will gain substantial Russian loans as a reward, such recognition will further dent its EU aspirations.

Nikolic took his begging bowl to Moscow seeking an $800 million loan, as Russia had previously promised a $1 billion dispersal but has delivered only $200 million so far. But the new Serbian government must carefully read the conditions of any loan. Russia is not dispensing charity; it is seeking to create political dependence and to control Serbia's energy infrastructure as its state companies develop pipeline projects across the Balkans. It is Belgrade's responsibility to make sure that the undying love that Nikolic has declared for Russia on behalf of the Serbian people does not result in Serbia becoming a victim of date rape.

Being somebody’s West means that you lead – and the other follows. The essence of “leading” is concentrated in the standard of living, freedom of movement, and the quality of public administration. The perception of being behind or out in front is often all about mass culture. You consume your neighbor’s soft power; therefore you acknowledge he is “ahead” of you.

Before 1989 Romanians watched Bulgarian television. Some Romanians above the age of 40 still remember the opening chords of the youth shows and domestic (but also imported) crime series on Bulgarian TV. Ceausescu’s state lacked such programming.

If you think, however, that Bulgarians watched only their own TV channels, you would be gravely mistaken. While Romanians learned some Bulgarian to watch Bulgarian TV, the Bulgarians in the west of the country learned Serbo-Croat. People pushed their technical skills to the maximum in order to receive broadcasts from Belgrade and if possible, the other radio and TV stations of the former Yugoslavia. Entire villages spoke the neighboring country’s language, even using the right cases (Bulgarian does not have them). The source of this education was TV, radio, and Serbian turbo-folk, with beautiful singer Lepa Brena at the top of the list.

In this way, Bulgarian viewers got what they lacked: a vibrant rock, pop, and folk culture; news from the world; American movies; and sometimes even some erotic scenes on TV. That was their way to acknowledge that Yugoslav citizens enjoyed a higher standard of living. Additionally Bulgarians noticed that their neighbors had easy access to jeans and sneakers – and could travel freely with their passports, while they needed to undergo painful procedures to acquire an exit visa. If you had asked who the West was for Romanians or Russians, they could say “Bulgaria.” But if you had asked Bulgarians themselves, they would point to Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and first and foremost to Yugoslavia.

Ioannis Grigoriadis, professor at the Bilkent University in Turkey and an associate of the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy Studies (ELIAMEP), circulated an analytical report days before Erdogan’s visit arguing that Turkey’s return as a strategic regional force would have enormous impact on the geopolitical balance.

Grigoriadis is one of many analysts who see Turkey’s return as a regional power rooted in Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s strategic doctrine that envisages the country as a core economic regional power and a transit point between East and West in future. It is a sophisticated foreign policy strategy that promotes the country’s economic interests while also attempting to heal Turkey’s old wounds.

"Davutoglu's doctrine talks about "zero problems with neighbours. It remains to be seen whether any substance will be put to this in the following months’’, Grigoriadis told IPS.

"More attention has been given to Turkish relations with Armenia, Syria, and Iraq rather than with Greece. Joint Greek-Turkish initiatives in the Balkans could not be precluded, yet where work is mostly needed is in the Aegean question, as well as Cyprus," he said.

Offering to mediate between the West and Iran over its nuclear ambitions, and taking on Israel for its aggression against Lebanon and Palestine, have also been spectacular foreign policy decisions that attracted attention internationally.

But Turkey’s silent return in the Balkans has been equally effective. During the last decade it has established itself, politically and economically, as a key factor in Bosnia, Kosovo and Albania, successfully playing on cultural proximity.

Turkey’s new philosophy has led it to improve relations and acquire strategic assets beyond traditional boundaries. Two weeks ago Turkish investors declared interest in purchasing the Serbian national carrier JAT.

Emrullah Uslu, a Turkish terrorism expert and currently an associate at the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Utah said: "Davutoglu and the governmental Justice and Development Party (AKP) leadership consider Turkey’s economic infrastructure to be the strongest in the region. Therefore, peace within the region would benefit the Turkish economy".

Before 1991, former Yugoslavs enjoyed visa-free travel since the mid-1960s, unlike the nations of what used to be communist Eastern Europe. Generations of Serbs grew up travelling freely abroad, but the young now are almost completely unaware of the benefit.

"It was ok to go to Italy for a weekend when I was young," Bogdan Stevovic (54), a Belgrade teacher, told IPS. "However, my 19-year-old son does not know what it looks like. For a week's holiday in Greece he had to queue the whole night in front of the Greek embassy just to submit his visa request in the morning."

[. . .]

[Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Kosovo] were omitted from the EC list for visa-free travel. "These countries have not yet fulfilled the conditions," the EC said in its statement. That meant they had not introduced biometric passports, secured their borders or engaged in a fight against organised crime. Visa-free travel for them could be re-examined by mid-2010, the EC statement said.

There was fierce reaction in Bosnia-Herzegovina, where the EC move was viewed as a political message primarily for Bosniak Muslims, who are the largest ethnic group, that suffered the biggest losses in the 1992-95 war, mostly at the hands of Bosnian Serbs.

"It's further discrimination against us Bosniaks," Sarajevo resident Mirsad Juzbasic told IPS on the phone. "It's a shame after what happened here during the war. We'll remain in a kind of a ghetto."

It's different for Bosnian Croats and Serbs. Both are able to obtain passports from their ethnic mother countries, meaning they can hold dual Bosnian and Croat, or Bosnian and Serb citizenship.

Many Bosnian Croats opted for Croatian passports as far back as the mid- 1990s because Croatia was exempt from the visa introduction in 1991.

Bosnian Serbs have realised now that it's easy for them to obtain Serbian passports. "The only problem is we have to wait for Serbian citizenship for 15 months," Jelena Stojkovic (24) told IPS on phone from Banja Luka, capital of Republika Srpska, the ethnic Serb entity within Bosnia. "But it will be good for us. We can see what Europe looks like now."

Ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, who declared independence in what Serbia officially considers its southern province in February 2008, are regarded by Serbia as its citizens, but Serbia is unable to provide biometric passports because it has no jurisdiction over the province – even if the ethnic Albanians would want to travel on a Serbian passport.

The financial distress of Oleg Deripaska's aluminum business in Montenegro is threatening to turn the hottest economic growth story in the Balkans into the next Iceland.

The Russian oligarch, through his En+ Group Ltd. subsidiary, has told the Montenegrin government it cannot afford to keep the aluminum refinery, Kombinat Aluminijuma Podgorica, known as KAP, operating at a loss and is likely to close the entire operation unless it receives financial support in a hurry.

"We cannot pay our bills," KAP director Andrej Kuznjecov said in a phone interview from Moscow yesterday. "We're talking three to four weeks before we make the decision whether to shut it down."

KAP and its related companies, including a bauxite mine also controlled by Mr. Deripaska, form the most important industry in Montenegro, the small Adriatic country north of Albania that declared independence from Serbia in 2006. The KAP companies have 3,750 employees and account for 40 per cent of gross domestic product.

Aluminum made up slightly more than half of Montenegro's exports in 2007.

Aluminum production and exports keep the seaport, the railway and about 100 local suppliers in business.

KAP's woes provide a graphic illustration of how the credit crisis and recession are creating a domino effect around the world, hurting even robust economies farthest from the world's financial centres. Since 2006, Montenegro has been growing at 8 per cent a year as investors from Russia, Western Europe and Canada pumped up the country with construction, tourism and aluminum projects.

Growth has since fallen off a cliff.

Construction is slowing considerably. One of the country's main banks, Prva Banka, which is partly owned by the family of Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic, had to be bailed out. The International Monetary Fund last month estimated growth of just 2 per cent in 2009. All growth bets are off if KAP implodes.