The
election results are in from
natal Prince Edward Island, and the governing
Liberal Party of Robert Ghiz won 23 seats (of 27) in the provincial legislature with 52.9% of the vote, the opposition
Progressive Conservatives winning 4 seats with 41.4% of the votes cast. This isn't cause for Progressive Conservative grief. Rather, this is being taken as
very nearly a best-case scenario. Nissologist Hans Connor had
predicted that the third parties--the New Democratic Party, the Green Party, and the Island Party, of which only the first has been represented in
Province House and that only with a single seat for a single session--would draw a critical 5% away from the PCs and result in a Liberal-dominated assembly.
Progressive Conservative Olive Crane, the Liberals’ main opponent, told CBC she wasn’t disappointed in the results.
“Today’s about Islanders and they’ve made their decision,” Crane said. “I am pleased. At one time people thought we were going to be 27-0, and that’s not the case.
“We worked really hard we had a great team.”
Crane said she wouldn’t be making a decision about the leadership of the provincial Tories.
“Tonight’s about the election. I’m excited that we’re going to have six, seven or eight in the legislature.”
Heading into Monday’s vote, following a month of aggressive campaigning, the Liberals held 24 of the province’s 27 seats.
Ghiz said this year’s campaign was far more negative than the previous two he had participated in.
The Crane-led Progressive Conservatives went into the election holding two seats, while one riding was without a representative when the election was called last month.
It's hardly as if this has not
happened before. It happens more often than not recently, in fact.
In 2000, the Conservatives won 26 of the province’s 27 seats in the legislature, leaving the Liberals with one. Four years later, the Tories took 23 seats to the Liberals’ four.
But a big swing in 2007 saw the Ghiz-led Liberals reverse that outcome.
Ian Dowbiggin, a history professor at the University of Prince Edward Island, says the large majorities and significant swings in support are facts of Island politics.
Mr. Dowbiggin says the shifts are due to several factors – one of them being that the Liberals and Conservatives have been virtually the only choice for voters. The province has only elected one New Democrat to the legislature.
Another reason is the fact that, with 27 districts in a province of about 140,000 people, it doesn’t take much to produce large shifts in results.
“A decision in any particular district can shift with only 10 or 20 votes in some cases,” Mr. Dowbiggin says.
“The swing vote, then, doesn’t have to be dramatic. It can be 20, 30, 50 votes. So it’s largely a case of just numbers.
“So what happens is, if there is even a small shift in the popular vote, it translates into these dramatic changes in seat totals.”
All this, mind, notwithstanding a
massive scandal involving allegations that the province's immigration-recruitment program accepted bribes. (In the
words of the local paper of record, "[t]he informants making the allegations are former provincial employees, one of whom claims, among other things, that she saw envelopes and rolled wads of cash being given to PNP directors by Chinese applicants during a trip to Hong Kong.") The outcome is entirely legitimate in that Island politics are very participatory, with turnout
consistently above 70% of the registered electorate. They have to be: politics are unavoidably, problematically, personal and necessarily pragmatic. I don't understand this election to be different.
Why isn't there a fuss? Principled politics is neither a good idea nor a viable one for the average voter on the Island.
In a bigger province, Mr. Dowbiggin says such a scandal could give the governing party the boot. But once again, he says the politics of the tiny Island are different.
He says in PEI, people practise “the politics of familiarity” because they see their elected officials on the street, in the grocery store and at the coffee shop.
“There’s a real sense of familiarity and once a party gets into power, I think a lot of voters ... they’re willing to cut that party, that government, a lot of slack that you wouldn’t get in other provinces,” he says.
“So they’re most likely to give people in government, who they feel a kinship to, several chances at governing.”
The large role the government plays in a province this size can’t be ignored either, he added.
“Government plays a big role here in Prince Edward Island in the everyday lives of voters – especially in terms of jobs, especially in terms of employment, but also in terms of infrastructure,” he says.
“A lot of voters think seriously when they cast their votes. Do they want to be on the side of government? Because if you’re not on the side of government, well, your neighbourhood street might not get paved, or that rink that you’ve always wanted in your community won’t get built.”
Public services are nice. Employment, too. So why get too bothered, especially when the other party likely wouldn't do anything different?