[ARTICLE] "Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us"

From The Guardian:

Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us

· Secret report warns of rioting and nuclear war
· Britain will be 'Siberian' in less than 20 years
· Threat to the world is greater than terrorism

Mark Townsend and Paul Harris in New York
Sunday February 22, 2004
The Observer

Climate change over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters..
A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a 'Siberian' climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.

The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The threat to global stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents.

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Quizzes

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[ADMIN] Heading Usage.

Just this evening, I've had the excellent luck to finally meet mathwhiz78 in the flesh, at dinner (the McDonald's on 1165 Division Street here in Kingston). It was fun, of course.

I've learned, though, that it can be difficult to discern my non-academic posts from my academic ones. (This is particularly pertinent now--I'll be writing up my Ottawa trip, but I also have a posting on Turkey and the EU in the works.)

So, in addition to the current [BLOG-LIKE POSTING], [BRIEF NOTE], and [REVIEW] headings, welcome [NON-BLOG]!

[BRIEF NOTE] Israel and la francophonie, part 2

The recent state visit paid by Israeli president Moshe Katsav to France, aimed at revitalizing a strained Israeli-French relationship, has produced an interesting clarification on the relationship of Israel to la Francophonie. As Jonathan Edelstein observed this past December, Israel would be a natural member-state of the international organization of Francophone countries, given the large numbers of Israeli Francophones (there's even a USENET newsgroup for Israeli Francophones). The international Francophone television channel TV5 reports that Chirac has spoken in favour of Israeli membership. The report is excerpted below.

( The original text. )

( My somewhat awkward translation. )

The fact that France isn't the dominant power in la Francophonie is something that's frequently overlooked. Now, granted that in terms of the numbers of Francophones and overall economic and geopolitical power France is by far the most important member-state. France didn't start la Francophonie, though--rather, that institution can trace its origins to an initiative of Francophone African states to establish cooperation between themselves on educational and other matters. A France in the process of a rather prolonged and nasty decolonization in Algeria was in no mood to establish links which could plausibly be called neo-colonial, particualrly not with the Left ascendant over the 1960s.

In the meantime, a Québec which was quickly developing throughout the 1960s into a self-consciously Francophone entity with a much stronger international profile than ever before began to look towards the countries of Francophone Africa, and separately started to draw France into much closer and more direct relations. Partly in order to preempt the development of an autonomous Québec foreign policy, the Canadian federal government began to echo Québec's initiatives. (The Communauté française de Belgique and other Francophone communities in Europe seem to have started their own participation in la Francophonie for a combination of motives, some perhaps echoing those of Québec/Canada.)

The important point is that la Francophonie began as a decentralized network, with North American and African nodes existing largely independently of France and in fact playing a determinative role in the organization of the international Francophone community. As the number of member-states has expanded, particularly into the Middle East and the nominally Francophile countries of central and southeastern Europe, so have the chances for France to establish a formal hegemony within institutional structures--as opposed to an informal one through the predominance of French mass media--dropped sharply.

Israel should join la Francophonie. Given that it has a million speakers of French--including a quarter-million or so mother-tongue speakers--it's arguably more Francophone than participating governments like Poland and Lithuania. I suspect, though, that the opposition of many Arab Francophone states, particularly but not only Lebanon, will keep Israel out.

Worse still for Israeli prospects, based on Ethnologue data, it seems that a near-majority of Francophones (including speakers of French as a second language) live in countries with a Muslim majority population. If the Arab-Israeli situation does become a pan-Muslim issue, then however desirable Israeli membership might be impossible. This would be a terrible pity, needless to say, given Israel's qualifications and given how France's Jewish community is second-largest in the Jewish diaspora by size.