I'd mentioned back in January that I was planning a series of posts on unlikely reunifications, on pairs of countries separated by relatively minor historical circumstances which were nonetheless unlikely to ever overcome the separation. I don't know why I'm doing this since I'm not a political scientist or another sort of specialist and I don't think my writings on the subject are particularly revelatory. I suppose that my interest in alternate history, in paths not taken despite their plausibility, is responsible. Regardless, here's installment #1.
* * *In the heady days of
die Wende, I remember reading in
Time the tumult which erupted in Austria when a West German author proclaimed that the German nation was divided between two ideologies (capitalistic democracy and an orthodox communism) and three states (West Germany, East Germany, and Austria). If it had been made a generation ago, this statement would have been immensely destabilizing, suggesting as it did that the Federal Republic of Germany’s territorial ambitions might not be satified with reclaiming Brandenburg and Saxony, Thuringia and Mecklenburg,would have awoken. The hint that Austria was just as "illegitimate" as East Germany suggested the possibility that German territorial appetites would not stop with East Germany, that Salzberg, Tyrol, and Burgenland might also be claimed. After that, who knows? Bohemia and Moravia? Silesia and East Prussia? Even Poznan and Slovenia?
It’s important to note that this West German author’s suggestion never got off the ground, either in West Germany or in Austria. 14 years after reunification, Austrian independence is as unchallenged as it ever has been. This is interesting from the comparative perspective, for Austria and East Germany were both states built on territory that was ethnically German after the Second World War, in order to deny their territories, populations, and industries to a rump Germany (West Germany) still suspected as politically unreliable and potentially strategically destabilizing. The Austrian nation-building project worked; the East German nation-building project only managed to create
a strong regionalism. Why did the Austrian project succeed where the East German failed?
( First, a Bavarian counterfactual. )( Kleindeutschland versus Grossdeutschland. )( The First Republic, and how it failed. )( Why the Second Republic worked. )Modern-day Germany and modern-day Austria are once again united, sharing a customs union, a single currency, and elected officials in the same parliament. The European Union, though, is a much broader project than the Austro-German customs union vetoed by France in 1932. Austria was once a politically unstable and struggling state, vulnerable to its neighbours; it is now one of the richest countries in Europe, surpassing Germany in income per capita, with a relatively stable political system despite its recent disturbance by the xenophobic populism of Haider and his ilk, and a frontier secured within the greater European Union. Austria’s main political issues have little to do with its relationship with Germany, and much more to do with its former partners in Austria-Hungary. Austria's now on its own.
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