[PHOTO] Golden leaves by the tracks, Dovercourt Village

[BLOG] Some election links

When I woke up at 4 o'clock this morning, I was taken aback by the news on Wikipedia's front page that Donald Trump had been elected president. I know I'm not alone in trying to cope with this unexpected, and unwanted, news.

• Antipope's Charlie Stross is processing the consequences of this election.


• Crooked Timber has started a discussion about what to do next.


• Joe. My. God. notes that, poignantly, many people waited in line to place votes on the stickers of the grave of Susan B. Anthony.


• In a not very wise move, Lawyers, Guns and Money decided to start an open thread where people could blame the people and groups they held responsible for the Trump victory.


• The Map Room Blog mapped the closing times of the polls and highlighted critical areas.


• Marginal Revolution wonders who will gain and lose from the surprise Trump victory.


• The Power and Money's Noel Maurer notes that there is a great deal of ruin in a nation.


• The Volokh Conspiracy notes that the financial markets are already responding.


• Whatever's John Scalzi reacts, noting among other things that the victory is not absolute. (Also, that polling has serious problems.)


• Window on Eurasia suggests the Trump election will have many consequences for Russia, not all of them wanted.

[BLOG] Some Wednesday links

• Beyond the Beyond notes an upcoming exhibition of photos of Vaclav Havel.


• blogTO notes a local controversy over the demolition of a community-built skate park.


• Centauri Dreams considers how advanced starfaring civilizations might deal with existential threats.


• Crooked Timber looks at how presidential debates could be used to teach logic.


• Language Hat examines the origins of the evocative Slavic phrase "they perished like Avars."


• Language Log notes how "Molotov cocktail" was confused by a Trump manager with "Mazel tov cocktail".


• The LRB Blog notes Brexit-related insecurity over the rule of law in the United Kingdom.


• The Map Room Blog notes an exhibition in Maine of Acadian-related maps.


• Marginal Revolution looks at how the Hong Kong press has been influenced by advertisers.


• The NYRB Daily looks an exhibition of abstract expressionism.


• The Planetary Society Blog looks at what we can learn from Rosetta.


• Savage Minds considers the place of archeology in anthropology.


• Window on Eurasia looks at Belarus' commemoration of the Bolshevik Revolution and considers the dispute in Kazakhstan as to whether the country should be known as Qazaqstan.

[LINK] "Donald Trump wins – WTF now?"

I'm not sure I agree with everything Gary Freeman has to say in his NOW Toronto article, but my attention was certainly caught by his arguments.

It's as if an alien spacecraft called The Apocalypse has crash-landed in the capital and their orange leader alighted and strolled down Pennsylvania Avenue where he had vowed he’d end up. The election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States resonates frighteningly.

For the shell-shocked, it will be forever incomprehensible how a dishonest tax-dodger, bully, narcissist, habitual liar and xenophobe has managed to engineer the most hostile and blatant takeover in US history.

Yet, Trumpland and its denizens would be more readily recognizable to the "Founding Fathers" than the America of the last eight years and certainly an America with a woman president.

US president-elect Donald Trump is the personification of white male America’s tragically warped sense of entitlement and that is what he has tapped into – something that is as American as the tragic social stratification deeply embedded in the United States and constructed by the Founding Fathers.

In 1776 until 1810, the right to vote in the United States was the prerogative of white, male, Protestant “property owners” over the age of 21. During the presidential elections of 1787 and 1792, the first two held in the United States, less than 1per cent of the population voted. They believed America belonged to them and them alone.

[LINK] "Demography Slays the Democrats"

Counting on the inevitability of demographic change, Francis Wilkinson argues convincingly at Bloomberg View, was a poor tactic for the Democratic Party right now.

The Democrats' coalition of the ascendant did not ascend. Hispanic voters did not overwhelm. Black voters did not deliver. Rural and working-class whites abandoned the party in droves.

The Democratic Party is dependent on the presidency. Without it, the multi-racial, multi-class, water-hugging, tree-hugging party of the 21st century will enter 2017 obliterated, clinging to California as a government in exile as Washington falls to a political opponent that no longer looks like the Republican Party of even 2014, and may prove to be something American democracy has never seen.

Without the executive branch, or one side of Congress, Democrats are stranded, with no probable path to power before the next presidential race. (Their 2018 Senate prospects are grim.) Who knows what Trumpism will produce by then?

American institutions, Wall Street and corporations are in a nervous fit now; the markets are revolting. But they can be soothed, part way at least, with the right words, and as president Donald Trump would know enough to murmur them. Business will defend itself, but won't defend Democrats.

The voices in the party that have been shouting that white working men were a precious resource that Democrats could ill afford to lose will have their day. There will be recriminations. But the arguments will be curtailed by the abject fear with which Democrats face the prospect of a Trump presidency and a Republican Party that, no matter what its members said last week, will now be poised to do his bidding -- whatever that turns out to be.

[LINK] "How should Justin Trudeau respond to Donald Trump on trade and economy?"

CBC News' Daniel Cochrane shares a very compelling argument for Canada to immediately find out what Trump has in store for the bilateral relationship.

One of the key architects of Canada's trade relationship with the United States says Prime Minister Justin Trudeau should seek a meeting with president-elect Donald Trump as soon as possible and take decisive action to protect Canada's competitiveness with its biggest trading partner.

"The No. 1 thing would be to reach out to Donald Trump, ask for a meeting, try to have a frank discussion of what his intentions are so that we could calibrate our own positions accordingly," said Derek Burney, a former Canadian ambassador to the U.S.

Burney says the Trump victory should force Trudeau to re-examine his climate change agenda and his plan to impose a national price on carbon starting in 2018.

"If Mr. Trump goes forward as he says on climate change, and we go in a different direction, we are going against the grain of our own competitive position in North America," Burney warns.

"We should be recalibrating those commitments, those intentions very carefully. Because if we put ourselves in an uncompetitive position with the United States in terms of manufacturing, energy, agriculture, you name it, who is going to win? Who is going to lose? Canada will be the loser I can tell you."

[LINK] The National Post on the Mexican reaction to the election of Donald Trump

The National Post shared Nacha Cattan and Eric Martin's Washington Post article looking at the general reaction in Mexico to Donald Trump's election. I wouldn't be surprised if this ended North American regionalism.

Mexicans watched their televisions in horror as Donald Trump was victorious over Hillary Clinton in the U.S. election, putting into power a man who stirred resentment of them and their relatives in the U.S. and promised to build a wall between the nations after almost a century of peace.

“The world has gone crazy,” said Alessandro Mendoza, watching the results on two giant screens at a packed gathering of Mexican and American businessmen at the American Society. As Trump’s lead mounted, the 29-year-old lawyer from Mexico City, who has cousins in Miami, put his hand to his mouth in surprise and whispered to his friend, “we’re screwed.”

The country has been gripped for months by the election campaign, culminating with a tense night that Foreign Minister Claudia Ruiz monitored from offices resembling a war room. Thousands of the capital’s residents had planned to celebrate a Trump defeat at the Angel of Independence in the city center, where soccer fans party after the national team wins. But as the final results came in, the Paseo de la Reforma thoroughfare that runs past the monument was eerily silent.

“Americans have disappointed me,” said Jose Enrique Guillen, a 28-year-old sociology student at the Pinche Gringo bar in the capital. “I feel the hatred. I’m sad and worried.”

From the moment Trump began his campaign by calling undocumented Mexican immigrants “rapists,” the Republican used Mexico as a whipping boy to drive home his concerns about free trade and undocumented workers. Now, after months of beating Trump piñatas, burning his effigies and donning wigs to satirize him in theaters, Mexicans are facing a bleak reality that could damage the nation’s economy and throw the lives of millions of migrants into chaos.

[LINK] "Trump's message must come to Canada, Kellie Leitch says in Tory leadership bid"

The Globe and Mail's Laura Stone lets us know that, already, Trump's victory has emboldened some people in the Conservative leadership race here in Canada. Do not expect the Canadian border to be a cordon sanitaire.

Conservative leadership candidate Kellie Leitch is praising American voters for throwing out “the elites” to elect billionaire Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency and says that same message needs to come to Canada.

In a fundraising e-mail to supporters sent early Wednesday morning, the Ontario MP also expands on her plan to screen immigrants and refugees for “Canadian values” to also include visitors – although what she means by visitors isn’t entirely clear.

“Tonight, our American cousins threw out the elites and elected Donald Trump as their next president,” Ms. Leitch, a pediatric surgeon, said in the e-mail sent to supporters at 3:08 a.m. ET Wednesday.

“It’s an exciting message and one that we need delivered in Canada as well.”

[. . .]

Ms. Leitch, one of 12 candidates vying for Conservative leadership, said she’s the only one “who is standing up for Canadian values.”

[URBAN NOTE] "Tory expects Trump to soften in office"

The Globe and Mail's Jeff Grey reports on Toronto mayor John Tory's hope that Donald Trump will soften in office. Speaking as a Torontonian myself, I am skeptical of this: The only thing that ended Rob Ford's reign was not a change of conscience on his part, but death.

Toronto Mayor John Tory says he believes Donald Trump will moderate the controversial stands he took during the campaign after he is sworn in as president of the United States.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday morning, Mr. Tory said the United States was an “incredibly resilient” country.

“I would never bet against the United States. And I think they will adjust to this different kind of leadership,” Mr. Tory said. “And so too, I think, will Mr. Trump adjust. I saw him this morning saying, I’m the president of all the people. And I think that’s a welcome thing for him to say. And one trusts that he will act that way because that is what you discover in these jobs in public office, that you are there to represent all the people.”

But Mr. Tory made a point of saying he would remain focused on making sure his city is “one Toronto” that provides opportunity for the “marginalized” and welcomes people of “every description, every faith, every colour of skin.”

He also said he would try to find “positive ways” to work with the United States and convince Mr. Trump to view Canada as a good partner and a good place to do business and invest.

[URBAN NOTE] "George Brown College honours black community pioneers"

The Toronto Star's Alicja Siekierska reports on how two African-American migrants, escaped slaves, are now being honoured for their role in Toronto's history.

Nearly 200 years ago, shortly after fleeing slavery in the United States using the Underground Railroad, Lucie and Thornton Blackburn became leaders in their newly adopted community in Toronto.

They helped construct the historic Little Trinity Anglican Church on King St., and Thornton established Toronto’s first cab company — a red-and-yellow horse-drawn carriage that seated four.

On Wednesday, George Brown College will honour the story of the Blackburns, naming a conference centre at their student residence, The George, after the courageous couple and unveiling a mural designed and painted by George Brown students.

“This goes beyond the incredible story of a couple fleeing slavery to seek freedom in Canada, building incredible community partnerships and opening up the doors to blacks in Toronto,” said Nikki Clarke, the president of the Ontario Black History Society.

“Their story runs parallel to many people’s stories: taking refuge, seeking safety, and trying to start over in a new country. It resonates with many.”

[URBAN NOTE] "A Short History of One Spadina Crescent"

Torontoist's Jamie Bradburn describes the storied history of One Spadina Crescent.

Since it was built 140 years ago, One Spadina Crescent has had many close calls with the wrecking ball. That it is around to undergo revamping by the University of Toronto’s John H. Daniels Faculty of Architecture, Landscape, and Design is miraculous given threats ranging from proposed sporting venues to the Spadina Expressway. The site’s recognition as a gateway to the university is a long-overdue honour.

One Spadina’s church-like presence was no accident. Architect James Avon Smith specialized in religious structures, including Church of the Redeemer at Bloor and Avenue and at least 90 other churches across Ontario. For Knox College, the building marked the Presbyterian theological school’s fifth location in 30 years. When the building opened in October 1875, the Globe praised it as “an ornament to the city,” well-positioned to allow Knox students to enjoy a stronger intellectual grounding through exposure to courses at nearby U of T (which Knox didn’t formally join for another decade).

Within a decade there were public calls to knock the building down. Some neighbours felt that Spadina Crescent should have been used as earlier landowner Robert Baldwin had once envisioned it: a public park with a magnificent view south along Spadina Avenue. While some felt Knox was all but squatting on the property, documents proved land deals between the college and a Baldwin heir were perfectly legal.

[ISL] Two links on the Prince Edward Island electoral reform referendum

There has been not a little discussion among my Facebook friends about the results of this month's electoral reform referendum on Prince Edward Island returned a majority of votes in favour of reform on the basis of only a minority of voters participating.

MacLean's shared the Canadian Press report on the outcome of the vote.

A non-binding plebiscite on electoral reform in Prince Edward Island has shown voters support a switch to a form of proportional representation.

[. . .]

Islanders were given five options to chose from, including an option to keep the current first-past-the-post system. Voters were asked to rank some or all of the options on a one-to-five scale.

If no electoral system received more than half the votes, the option with the fewest votes was eliminated and those ballots redistributed to their second-choice option.

That process was repeated until one option passed the 50 per cent threshold to achieve majority support.

On the fifth round of counting, mixed member proportional representation obtained 19,418 votes, or more than 52 per cent of the 37,040 valid votes. The existing system received close to 43 per cent of votes in the final round.

CBC, meanwhile, noted that the low turnout may be encouraging the government to disregard the outcome.

The low turnout for Prince Edward Island's plebiscite on electoral reform — 36 per cent — means it's debatable whether the results can be considered a clear expression of the will of Islanders, Premier Wade MacLauchlan said Tuesday.

The premier said the results confirmed the need for the legislature to "enhance our democracy," but he did not commit to making any changes to the existing first-past-the-post system, even though it was rejected as the best option after 10 days of online and telephone voting wrapped up late Monday.

"We certainly won't ignore (the plebiscite)," MacLauchlan said in an interview. "This has been a major exercise in democracy for our province ... The ongoing dialogue is a continuing process. We are absolutely taking to heart the plebiscite and the results."

[. . .]

In the end, the mixed-member proportional representation system garnered more than 52 per cent of the votes, once the votes for the other options were redistributed according to the rules of preferential voting. The first-past-the-post system received close to 43 per cent of votes in the final round.

We will see what happens. Myself, I think it would be worth going ahead. This proposal could easily improve the quality of democracy on the Island, perhaps even elsewhere if this example catches on.

[DM] "Trump's Win Isn't the Death of Data--It Was Flawed All Along"

At Demography Matters, I link to Cade Metz's Wired article "Trump's Win Isn't the Death of Data--It Was Flawed All Along". It makes interesting observations about statistical data collection generally, not just political polling.

The lesson of Trump’s victory is not that data is dead. The lesson is that data is flawed. It has always been flawed—and always will be.

Before Donald Trump won the presidency on Tuesday night, everyone from Nate Silver to The New York Times to CNN predicted a Trump loss—and by sizable margins. “The tools that we would normally use to help us assess what happened failed,” Trump campaign reporter Maggie Haberman said in the Times. As Haberman explained, this happened on both sides of the political divide.

Appearing on MSNBC, Republican strategist Mike Murphy told America that his crystal ball had shattered. “Tonight, data died,” he said.

But this wasn’t so much a failure of the data as it was a failure of the people using the data. It’s a failure of the willingness to believe too blindly in data, not to see it for how flawed it really is. “This is a case study in limits of data science and statistics,” says Anthony Goldbloom, a data scientist who once worked for Australia’s Department of Treasury and now runs a Kaggle, a company dedicated to grooming data scientists. “Statistics and data science gets more credit than it deserves when it’s correct—and more blame than it deserves when it’s incorrect.”

With presidential elections, these limits are myriad. The biggest problem is that so little data exists. The United States only elects a president once every four years, and that’s enough time for the world to change significantly. In the process, data models can easily lose their way. In the months before the election, pollsters can ask people about their intentions, but this is harder than it ever was as Americans move away from old-fashioned landline phones towards cell phones, where laws limit such calls. “We sometimes fool ourselves into thinking we have a lot of data,” says Dan Zigmond, who helps oversee data science at Facebook and previously handled data science for YouTube and Google Maps. “But the truth is that there’s just not a lot to build on. There are very small sample sizes, and in some ways, each of these elections is unique.”