[FORUM] Is the Internet set to fragment as it grows?

[rfmcdonald]

Jim Belshaw's eyecatchingly-titled Sunday essay, "Is the internet drowning in it's own excreta?" makes the interesting argument that the proliferation of content on the Internet--in the blogosphere, on Twitter, via search engines--is expanding to the point

I have noticed the same pattern as the constant increase in ephemera makes it harder and harder to find the material I want. There is another problem as well. The constant rise in the use of the internet for transactions purposes, itself something of value, adds to the overall content and indeed confusion.

[. . .]

When the internet began, it was rather like shopping in a small town. You knew the street layout, you knew where the stores were. Now the internet has became a mega global city in which no person can even attempt to follow the overall pattern, let alone understand the detailed intricacies.

You shop or eat in that local area directly related to your needs, the things that you are interested in or need to do, putting the rest aside. Even then you have a problem, for the map changes everyday even in your local area. Nothing is stable.

Just as none of us can understand the tax acts in any country or indeed the full scope of the road rules, now we cannot understand the internet. Then, as always happens with increased systemic complexity, we start to simplify, looking just at the things we most need. In my case, for example, I am going to unfollow certain news outlets on Twitter so that I can better focus on those things, mainly people, that I do wish to follow.

[. . .]

This process is still in its early days, but the broad patterns are becoming clear.

People will still use the broad internet, but increasingly they will focus on slices most directly relevant to them. One internet will be replaced by many internets. The internet you know will be different from that I know. The look will be different, the mode of operations different, the language different, the information displayed different.

This fragmentation will come at a cost, including at least the partial unifying element provided by the broad internet. Yet it is, I think, inevitable.

Thoughts? I'm inclined to think of the rapid expansion of Internet content as a good thing, particularly as content grows in language zones and geographic areas that haven't been included in the online world. Does it matter if you can't grasp Australian tax law, for instance, if your own country's tax laws (et cetera) are available? Has there ever been a single Internet in the sense Belshaw described? I have my doubts.

Discuss.