rfmcdonald | [LINK] "Russia and Japan try again for rapprochement" (Reply)

At Asia Times one Stephen Blank has a column up arguing that, notwithstanding the Russo-Japanese standoff over the Kuril Islands, each country's fear of isolation in Asia and their mutual desire in developing Japan as a market for Russian natural gas might lead to a breakthrough.

First, China's overweening pressure on Japan since 2010 may certainly be driving Tokyo to look for new support, particularly as Russia is regarded as one of the countries with a large supply of rare earth minerals, which China has attempted to block Japan from buying. Second, China's growing propensity to attempt to intimidate its neighbors over maritime boundaries and other issues has drawn quiet but visible Russian resistance in Southeast Asia, and Moscow certainly would not view a Sino-Japanese clash with equanimity.

Third, Russian elites still believe that Japan and Russia are complementary economies and that Japan seeks greater access to Russian energy despite Russia's terrible commercial record as well as the Kurile Islands obstacle. The strong demand for Russian energy that Moscow imputes to Tokyo is only partially true. However, Russia realizes it must sell energy to multiple Asian partners, not just China, to be taken seriously in its high-priority quest for great power status in Asia.

Accordingly both sides have indicated their desire to negotiate on outstanding issues. Most recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia was prepared to discuss a peace treaty with Japan on the basis of the UN charter. Lavrov also simultaneously indicated Russia's willingness to discuss "any matters" that are of interest to Japan - ie the Kurile Islands and China - and to seek an agreement on the disputed islands that is mutually acceptable.

At the recent Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum summit in Vladivostok, Japan and Russia signed a series of agreements as part of a meeting between Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko and President Vladimir Putin. These accords deal with fish and seafood poaching in territorial waters, a locally important issue; a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Gazprom and Japan's Ministry for Natural Resources and Energy; as well as a contract to build a large timber complex in the Krasnoyarsk area.

[. . . F]or the moment, despite much talk about rapprochement and investments, there is as yet nothing tangible to speak of other than atmospherics. But as time goes by, and if Chinese pressure on either or both countries becomes too overbearing, we may yet see some positive developments either in energy or in a broader geopolitical settlement between Russia and Japan.