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rfmcdonaldThis interesting item from Kazakhstan's Tengrinews popped up somewhere on one of my feeds.
Registan blogger Nate Schenkkan suggests, based on his analysis of Putin's speech, that we should be worried.
In the past, Kazakhstan's president has explicitly stated that Kazakhstan can't push too hard else it risk invasion by Russia. This might well be seen as a public dressing down of Kazakhstan by Russia, as a warning that the country really can't take anything for granted.
Thoughts?
Anna Sazonova, a student of the People's Friendship University of Russia expressed concern over escalating nationalism in Ukraine and asked whether a similar scenario could unfold in Kazakhstan if Mr. Nazarbayev left his presidential post. "There are concerns over growing nationalist sentiments in Kazakhstan's south. And the incumbent president Nursultan Nazarbayev seem to be the only deferring factor. Should we expect a Ukraine-like scenario if the President steps down? Has Russia got a strategy to deal with this possible scenario? And what are the prospects of Eurasian integration (and joining of the two countries together)?” she asked President Putin at the forum.
“Kazakhstan is Russia’s closest strategic ally and partner. First of all, President Nazarbayev is blessed with strong health and has no plans of stepping down. Being a wise leader, he has always been thinking about his country’s future. (...) But when it comes to individual statements made on the Internet, it’s quite natural that the worldwide web harbors various viewpoints (…)
"Kazakhstan is ten-fold smaller than Russia in terms of population, but it is still a big country. And I am confident that a majority of its population supports development of close ties with Russia.
"Nazarbayev is a prudent leader, even the most prudent in the post-soviet space. He would never act against the will of his country’s people. He is very sensitive to the people’s anticipations. And everything that has been done owing to his managerial capabilities and political experience has served Kazakhstan’s interests.
“He has done a unique thing. He created a state in a territory that had never had a state before. The Kazakhs had no statehood. From this perspective, he is a unique figure both in the post-Soviet space and in Kazakhstan.
Registan blogger Nate Schenkkan suggests, based on his analysis of Putin's speech, that we should be worried.
- Kazakhstan’s population is 17 million people, Russia’s is 143 million. It has taken a lot of work for Kazakhstan’s government to get the population to 17 million after it declined in the post-Soviet collapse. Putin knows the number isn’t 15 million. This is intended as a slight, as you can see from the “all the same it’s a very big country”. I heard this as, “Kazakhstan is a kind of pitiful place compared to Russia, but they have a lot of territory.”
- The statement that is getting the most attention: is У казахов не было никогда государственности is literally “The Kazakhs had never had statehood.” It is not “The Kazakhs have no state.”
- He always refers to “Kazakhs” not “Kazakhstanis” (казахи vs. казахстанцы). This gives the speech an ethnic tone. When he’s talking about Kazakhs never having statehood, he means the nomadic Kazakhs before the Russian Empire. This is a very live issue in Kazakhstan, where Kazakh nationalism based in pride in Kazakh history has been growing stronger and stronger. The speech will be incredibly inflammatory for Kazakh nationalism. Putin knows that.
- When he talks about the Eurasian Union and how it was Nazarbaev’s idea, he seems irritated. Since the Ukraine crisis started, Nazarbaev has been saying loudly that the EEU is not a political project, that it is only economic, and that Kazakhstan could leave if it doesn’t suit them. He watered down the treaty in May right before it was signed. There is no question if you watch the video that Putin is irritated with Nazarbaev’s behavior on the EEU. And when he says the EEU will be taken to its logical conclusion, I read that as meaning a political union.
In the past, Kazakhstan's president has explicitly stated that Kazakhstan can't push too hard else it risk invasion by Russia. This might well be seen as a public dressing down of Kazakhstan by Russia, as a warning that the country really can't take anything for granted.
Thoughts?
