rfmcdonald | [LINK] "Scotland independence vote could be as close as Quebec referendum" (Reply)

Canadian politics blogger Éric Grenier, the man behind ThreeHundredEight.com, has a piece of analysis at CBC suggesting the outcome of Thursday's referendum could be quite close indeed.

The consensus view in general is that undecideds tend to break disproportionately toward the status quo, opting at the last moment not to take a step into the unknown. This is what seems to have occurred in the 1995 Quebec referendum, when polls suggested the Yes side was on track for a slim victory.

Yet, this has so far not been the case in the Scottish referendum campaign. From March to July, support for independence stood at an average of 36 per cent, with 46 per cent supporting continued union and 17 per cent remaining undecided.

In August, the number of undecideds fell to about 13 per cent, with neither the Yes nor the No campaigns benefiting more than the other. Support for independence increased by two points to 38 per cent. Support for union was up three points to 49 per cent — a proportional increase.

But lately support has swung strongly to the Yes side. Undecideds have fallen again, by four points to an average of nine per cent, but support for independence has surged by six points to 44 per cent, with support for the "Better Together" campaign dropping to 47 per cent. In other words, not only has "Yes Scotland" drawn some undecideds toward its option, it has also converted some former unionists.