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rfmcdonaldÉric Grenier of Three Hundred Eight had a fascinating analysis of Canadian federal politics, noting how close things are between the three major parties.
The Liberals, Grenier argues, are the weakest of the three. The Conservatives have their stronghold in MP-rich western Canada, as the NDP does in Québec, but Atlantic Canada where the Liberals are particularly strong does not have that as many seats. Then again, as he noted at his blog, the NDP has been less resilient in Ontario than the Liberals have been. Such thin margins mean that many seats could be decided by slim margins. We might well see the NDP be the political party best-placed to form a minority government federally, for instance.
EKOS Research, in a poll for iPolitics, put the Conservatives at 30 per cent, the NDP at 29 per cent, and the Liberals at 27 per cent.
A Global News poll by Ipsos Reid, meanwhile, showed the Conservatives and Liberals in a tie at 31 per cent, with the NDP narrowly behind at 30 per cent.
And a poll by Abacus Data placed the Conservatives alone in first at 31 per cent, with the NDP and Liberals tied for second place at 28 per cent.
These are remarkable numbers, and would be unprecedented in Canadian election history if they carried through a campaign. Polls have recorded three-way contests between elections before, but there has never been an election that finished that close.
In fact, the closest three-way race in federal election history was in 2006 — when the gap between the first-place Conservatives and third-place New Democrats was just under 19 points.
There has been a handful of legitimate three-way races at the provincial level. In none of these cases, where the margin between first and third was less than six points, did the winning party secure a majority of seats.
Moreover, finishing third in a three-way race can be very penalizing. In terms of who comes out with the most seats, it is a virtual toss-up between the first and second place finishers. The party finishing in third position, despite being only marginally behind in the vote count, often takes little more than half as many seats as the other two parties.
The Liberals, Grenier argues, are the weakest of the three. The Conservatives have their stronghold in MP-rich western Canada, as the NDP does in Québec, but Atlantic Canada where the Liberals are particularly strong does not have that as many seats. Then again, as he noted at his blog, the NDP has been less resilient in Ontario than the Liberals have been. Such thin margins mean that many seats could be decided by slim margins. We might well see the NDP be the political party best-placed to form a minority government federally, for instance.
