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rfmcdonaldBoth Abiola Lapite and charlemagne77 have criticized this article by Philip Longman in the Washington Post, which suggests that on the basis of marginal differences in fertility rates between Red and Blue states in the US--roughly replacement level in Red states, and roughly 10-15% below replacement in Blue states--the United States is headed inevitably towards a conservative majority. (This topic is also covered, much less seriously and competently, by James Pinkerton at Tech Central Station.)
The whole argument has many flaws, not least of which is the point--raised in Abiola's comments section--that the trend over the past century has been for increased liberalism despite the ever-present higher fertility of cultural conservatives. I just found a line in the second-to-last paragraph funny:
I wonder if Longman, and the various people who talk about France as "Old Europe," are aware that France has much the youngest population of any European country and the highest fertility rate in the entire European Union after only Ireland, or that according to the Population Reference Bureau (PDF format) its population is expected to grow significantly to reach a close third, just behind Britain and no longer very far behind a diminished Germany?
Naah. That would be too much to expect.
The whole argument has many flaws, not least of which is the point--raised in Abiola's comments section--that the trend over the past century has been for increased liberalism despite the ever-present higher fertility of cultural conservatives. I just found a line in the second-to-last paragraph funny:
[I]f the Gore states seceded from the Bush states and formed a new nation, it would have the same fertility rate, and the same rapidly aging population, as France -- that bastion of "old Europe."
I wonder if Longman, and the various people who talk about France as "Old Europe," are aware that France has much the youngest population of any European country and the highest fertility rate in the entire European Union after only Ireland, or that according to the Population Reference Bureau (PDF format) its population is expected to grow significantly to reach a close third, just behind Britain and no longer very far behind a diminished Germany?
Naah. That would be too much to expect.
