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Jonathan Edelstein comments on the recent Tokelauan referendum. One major problem, he observes, is that the 66% majority might have set the bar too high.

[A] majority of the Tokelauans obviously want a more arm's-length agreement with New Zealand, in which they will remain under the larger country's protection but have greater freedom to protect their domestic culture. Given the 60 percent support for autonomy, New Zealand is now in the politically awkward position of holding onto a territory where the majority of the population wants to decolonize. This isn't a particularly comfortable position to be in, especially with other partial Pacific decolonizations as precedent, nor does New Zealand want to hold any colonies against the will of their people. I wouldn't be surprised to see agitation for another referendum with a 50 percent threshold, and I wouldn't be at all shocked if it started soon.


Of course, given the exclusion of the Tokelauan diaspora from the referendum and the fact that 30% of the voters abstained, this may be easier said than done. I can't help but think that Tokelauans have better and more important things to attract their attention, but then I come from a country addicted to existential constitutional questions itself. Who am I to speak?
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