[BRIEF NOTE] Montenegro and Serbia
May. 23rd, 2006 09:35 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
rfmcdonaldAs a result of the weekend's referendum on independence, Montenegro is set to become the newest independent state in the world. The margin of victory was thin, with the 55.5% of the votes cast being just barely higher than the 55% threshold set by the European Union, but it's enough to gain Serbian recognition.
The most immediate problem facing Montenegro, as Douglas Muir noted at A Fistful of Euros, is that Montenegrin secession is going to trigger decidedly strong sentiments directed against Montenegrin separatists in particular, and Montenegrins generally. Even in the comments to that very thread, fevered conspiracy-mongering was evidenced. In the long term, looking at the peculiar demographic history of Montenegro and the changing nature of ethnic identification among the Orthodox Christian Slavs of Montenegro, I fully expect certain people to note that the strong support lent by ethnic Albanians in the south and Bosniaks in the Sandzak on the border and judge the referendum as invalid on these grounds. In the short term, the Montenegrins living in Serbia may be threatened, not with violence but rather with exclusion.
This should be considered in the context provided by a February 2000 IWPR report on the Montenegrins of Serbia.
It would be so profoundly stupid to try to disenfranchise one-eighth of the Serbian population of eight million. And yet, this may happening.
Worse can be expected shortly. Montenegro will be followed in its independence by Kosova. Expect the Serbian political climate to deteriorate sharply indeed.
The most immediate problem facing Montenegro, as Douglas Muir noted at A Fistful of Euros, is that Montenegrin secession is going to trigger decidedly strong sentiments directed against Montenegrin separatists in particular, and Montenegrins generally. Even in the comments to that very thread, fevered conspiracy-mongering was evidenced. In the long term, looking at the peculiar demographic history of Montenegro and the changing nature of ethnic identification among the Orthodox Christian Slavs of Montenegro, I fully expect certain people to note that the strong support lent by ethnic Albanians in the south and Bosniaks in the Sandzak on the border and judge the referendum as invalid on these grounds. In the short term, the Montenegrins living in Serbia may be threatened, not with violence but rather with exclusion.
The next thing to watch out for: will Kostunica follow up on his pre-election threat to treat Montenegrins in Serbia as foreigners? This would be vindictive and stupid, so let’s hope not. There are something like a couple of hundred thousand Montenegrins living in Serbia; they’re perfectly well integrated into Serbian society, and they send a lot of money home to Montenegro. Kicking them around would poison relations between the two states, while serving no purpose other than to vent nationalist frustration.
This should be considered in the context provided by a February 2000 IWPR report on the Montenegrins of Serbia.
Vladimir, 40, has lived in Belgrade since childhood. He considers himself a Belgrader, and like so many of his fellow citizens he opposes the Milosevic regime.
But he is also Montenegrin, and so no longer expresses his views openly - fearing that even his closest friends might accuse him of being a separatist.
"I am angry and scared. It seems that Serbs in Belgrade can be against Milosevic, but not me. Suddenly I don't feel I belong here anymore."
He is so worried that he's reinforced his front door with steel bars. The more relations between Montenegro and Serbia deteriorate, the greater his fear.
The garden of the Moscow Hotel in downtown Belgrade is empty. It has been a traditional meeting place of Montenegrins of all ages. Now the only people who congregate there are pensioners loyal to the Yugoslav president.
Montenegrins have been coming to Serbia for decades. Many headed to Belgrade to be educated, others settled in the northern Serbian province of Vojvodina.
There are now more than 1 million of them living in Serbia - almost twice the population of Montenegro.
It would be so profoundly stupid to try to disenfranchise one-eighth of the Serbian population of eight million. And yet, this may happening.
Worse can be expected shortly. Montenegro will be followed in its independence by Kosova. Expect the Serbian political climate to deteriorate sharply indeed.
