[LINK] On population futures

[rfmcdonald]

Over at Claus Vistesen's Alpha Sources, a commenter responds to speculation about Russian, and global, population futures by wondering if the situation is too advanced for any recovery to be possible.

A useful parallel here can be found in the many, predominantly male, private clubs in London. Their history goes back a couple of centuries.

There is a well-documented record of problems arising in these clubs if the average age of the members is allowed to rise too far. Beyond a certain point the existing membership is no longer prepared to encourage the relatively active, noisy presence of younger people, so few younger people join. In almost every case the result has been a long decline which gets even more difficult to reverse with each passing year, leadng eventually to closure or often merger with other equally moribund (even if financially well-endowed) clubs.

One might describe this phenomenon as the 'whirlpool of advancing gerontocracy' (the clubs are generally self-governing, electoral bodies). The parallel is illuminating but I'm afraid offers little encouraging to say about the prospects of countries with the sort of demographic problems[.]