[BRIEF NOTE] Russia's latest immigration problem

[rfmcdonald]

Back in 2005, the Russian government announced a plan to attract ethnic Russian (and Russophone?) immigrants from other Soviet successor states with subsidies and sponsorship programs. As Timothy Heleniak at Migration Information wrote, Russia's long-standing history as a region of marked by net emigration to, after 1975, the recipient of increasing intense flows of immigrants from Russia's periphery. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, this flow was intensified by the relatively greater impact of the Soviet Union's dissolution on most of the other Soviet states. Moldova and the Caucasian states were paralyzed by economic collapse and internal ethnic conflict; Belarus and Ukraine were governed by indifferent reformers; the Central Asian states collapsed. Otto Pohl suggested back in 2005 that the end of Soviet subsidies to rural areas in southern Central Asia greater increased the incentive to migrate to Russia from countries like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Confronted with rapid population decline and possible labour shortages, this policy promised to mitigate Russia's demographic issues while reflecting a long-standing official preference for immigrants of Russophone or European background over Chinese immigrants from Muslim populations in the former Soviet Union.

It didn't work. Blame bureaucratic obstacles and a general lack of interest on the part of the targeted populations.

With a few exceptions, job opportunities offered potential newcomers look slim, and most regional administrations have made it clear that they will accept only those applicants whose professional skills match the needs of their respective job markets. Sometimes, authorities have warned that newcomers will be offered only jobs that local residents do not want.

The Russian-based, Central Asian information website ferghana.ru in July reported that job vacancies in Kaliningrad Oblast were mostly in the farming and shipbuilding industries, whereas the majority of those potential repatriates who had expressed an interest in moving to the region were seeking employment in the oil sector, or the service industries.

Repatriates may not only find it difficult to obtain suitable jobs -- they are also likely to experience housing problems. "Vremya novostei" reported that most of those ethnic Russians who settled in Kaliningrad Oblast immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union still live in precarious conditions, sometimes in remote rural areas.

If local authorities are free to select applicants according to their professional skills, they also decide where to accommodate the newcomers.

Most of those would-be migrants who are considering resettling in Kaliningrad Oblast have reportedly expressed a desire to live either in the exclave's main city, or on the Baltic Sea coast. But local administration officials have warned that at least two-thirds of the repatriates would be sent to the region's easternmost areas, where they say the demand for skilled workers is the highest.

Russian analysts agree that there are relatively few potential repatriates left in the world. Most of those ethnic Russians who wanted to settle in Russia have done so on their own a long time ago, while those who could afford it have moved to economically more prosperous countries. As for those who still live in former Soviet republics, their life is not so bad that they would consider abandoning it for an uncertain future.

In his recent interview with "Vremya novostei," State Duma Deputy Gustov admitted that the vast majority of potential repatriates fear they might be abandoned to themselves once they agree to resettle in Russia.

"No matter how cheap the train 'tickets' to Russia are, they've come very late," political analyst Valery Byzhytovich commented last week in "Rossiiskaya gazeta." "For many of those who were dreaming of returning to their historical homeland during the first years that followed the collapse of the USSR, the train has already gone."