[LINK] "The mythical post-American era"

[rfmcdonald]

Ehsan Ahrari's Asia Times article "The mythical post-American era" is worth reading. I've reoroduced what I see as the most important elements below.

The fact that the US not only survived the Cold War but also remains the sole superpower is the ultimate tribute to the dynamic capabilities of its economic sector to finance its military prowess.

Moreover, no one should, even momentarily, ignore the role of America's educational institutions in sustaining creativity, innovation, critical thinking and vibrancy in the vitality of its economic and defense sectors.

The secret underlying the rise of China and India is that both adopted the American "blueprint" (if it can be so labeled). China adopted that blueprint in 1978 under the rubric of Deng Xiaoping's "four modernizations", and India adopted it in 1991 by incorporating economic reforms under the highly capable leadership of its then finance minister (and current Prime Minister), Manmohan Singh.

But why is it that, while China and India emerge as "rising powers", there are so many suggestions of a "post-American" world, or that the world is witnessing America's decline, or that there is a power shift from the West to the East? These phenomena are certainly not interrelated.

[. . .]

The forces of globalization may be reducing the "developmental gap" between the US and China, the US and India, and China and India. However, they do not necessarily force one to conclude that the US has become a declining power.

Such suggestions of decline were heard before. During the 1980s, a popular proposition was about the emergence of Japan as an economic superpower and a related decline of America's economic prowess. In the first decade of the 21st century, the promise of Japanese superpowerdom seems to have faded. Japan, to be sure, is a major economic power, but it has failed to surpass the US in that realm.

The intellectual fad in the first decade of the 21st century is a "power shift" and post-Americanism. The ground realities are that America's economic dominance will be challenged; however, there is no conclusive evidence that America's decline is "inevitable". Those who make a case for the ineluctable rise of China and India assume that such phenomena would also result in a similarly inexorable decline of the US. Such a description is more a product of the flight of imagination of some strategic thinkers than a reflection of facts as studied through a variety of indicators of economic, political, social and military prowess.

Russia and Brazil have a lot of potential but their size ensures that they will be less powerful their BRIC counterparts, while the European Union is comparable in aggregate power and power potention to the United States but it is much more diverse than the United States. Barring catastrophe the United States, in short, won't be anything less than first among equals for a good while.