[BRIEF NOTE] On the upcoming Canadian federal elections

[rfmcdonald]

Reuters produced the article "Canada set for October 14 election: report".

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper will as expected this week ask for a dissolution of Parliament and call an election for October 14, the Canadian Press quoted senior government sources as saying late on Monday.

Hours earlier, Harper failed to persuade the country's main opposition leader to keep his minority Conservative government alive.

Harper aides have already pointed to October 14 as a likely date for what would be Canada's third election in four years.

A spokeswoman for Harper declined to comment on the Canadian Press report, while the prime minister's chief spokesman did not respond to phone and e-mail questions.

The breakdown of the talks between Harper and Liberal Party leader Stephane Dion was not a surprise.

Harper, who won power in January 2006, has made it clear over the past few weeks he thinks an election is the only way to fix what he sees as a dysfunctional Parliament.

Before an election can be called, Governor General Michaelle Jean, who represents Canada's head of state, Britain's Queen Elizabeth, must agree to a formal request from Harper to dissolve Parliament. Her approval is considered a formality.

Harper and Dion blamed each other after an unproductive 20-minute meeting at Harper's official residence, with both sides insisting the other wanted an election.

It worries me, a supporter of either the Liberals or the New Democratic Party as times allow, that the Conservatives might be able to form a majority government.

The new poll for The Globe and Mail-CTV News finds Canadian voters satisfied with the direction of the country and significantly more confident in the leadership abilities of the Tories and Prime Minister Stephen Harper than they are in those of his main rival, Stéphane Dion and the Liberals.

According to the poll, conducted by the Strategic Counsel, 37 per cent of Canadians would opt to vote for the Tories were an election to be held today, compared with 29 per cent for the Liberals, 17 per cent for the NDP and 9 per cent for the Green Party.

In the 2006 election, the Tories polled 36 per cent, compared with the Liberals' 30, the NDP's 18 and the Greens' 5.

“With these numbers, a majority is within the reach of the Conservatives, but not yet in their grasp,” said Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel. “I think that's the really important difference.”

The Tory gains are significant when compared with June, when scandals such as the Bernier affair left the two major parties statistically even in terms of voter support.

The Conservatives have built their lead on increased backing in British Columbia and parts of Ontario.

In areas of Ontario outside Toronto, they have turned the tables on the Liberals from the last election and now lead in popular support, 41 to 35.