[BRIEF NOTE] Another Korean War?

[rfmcdonald]

Towleroad is one blog among many that is carrying the news that North Korea may have been behind a recent series of cyberattacks on South Korean and American government sites.

North Korea, until now content to threaten to blow up the United States and recklessly test missiles, might be moving into a more aggressive phase. According to South Korean intelligence, "North Korea or pro-Pyongyang forces" are behind cyber attacks that knocked out American and South Korean government sites. China is also a suspect.

Affected sites include those at the Treasury Department, Secret Service, Federal Trade Commision and Transportation Department, and all the issues occurred over the long holiday weekend. A good time to test one's abilities, when one's opponent is watching fireworks and eating barbecue

Gideon Rachmann links to an article with excerpts from a paper in an official Chinese government journal by one Zhang Lianggui, a Chinese expert on North Korea, who fears that another Korean War may be soon.

Zhang, who has been at the school since 1989, is a specialist on North Korea, where he studied at Kim Il-Sung University in Pyongyang from 1964-1968. His analysis, in the June 16 issue of World Affairs magazine, is one of the most critical of the North ever to appear in an official publication. It reflects Beijing's rising anger with its neighbor and frustration that it can do so little to change its nuclear policy – despite the fact that the country relies upon it for supplies of food and oil.

The first generation of Communist leaders had strong sympathy for Kim Il-Sung, who studied at secondary school in northeast China, spoke Mandarin and fought with Chinese forces against the Japanese. The current leaders have no such feeling for his son, whom they regard as a bandit.

In the magazine, Zhang wrote that the world underestimates the magnitude of the risk on the Korean Peninsula.

"If we look at the situation as it is, the likelihood of a military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula is very high," he wrote. "It will start on the sea and then could spread to the 38th parallel. If a war breaks out, it is very difficult to forecast how it would develop. North Korea believes it now has nuclear weapons and has become stronger. It believes that it has overwhelming military superiority over the south and would certainly win a war," he said.

[. . . ]

Zhang also said that the North's nuclear tests pose “a risk that it [China] had never faced for thousands of years.” Nuclear tests by the US, Russia, China, Britain and France were carried out in deserts or remote places far from population centers. But the North's tests are just 85 km from the Chinese border, Changbai county in Jilin province, and 180 km from Yanji, a city of 400,000 people.

"The tests are close to densely populated areas of East Asia. If there were an accident, it would not only make the Korean nation homeless but also turn to nothing plans to revive the northeast of China," he wrote, asking why the tests were far from Pyongyang but not far from China.

"The danger for China is extremely grave. We have not paid sufficient attention to this risk. If we cannot bring about a denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, mankind will pay a heavy price, especially the countries bordering Korea," he wrote.

Pyongyang, he said, has never liked the six-party talks that have been trying, with Beijing's help, to get the North to relinquish its nuclear program because it regards the matter as essentially a bilateral issue to be settled with the United States alone. He does not believe North Korea will return to the stalled talks.

[. . .]

"Negotiating with North Korea is like negotiating with the mafia which is blackmailing you," said Wang Wen, a veteran Chinese journalist. "Beijing continues to supply the North with food, oil, consumer goods and other items it needs. The North does not pay. It [China] could cut off the supply, which would lead to a collapse of the regime. That would mean a unified Korea dominated by the United States. Pyongyang knows this and continues to blackmail China, like the mafia."

He said that, to prevent this scenario, Beijing has continued to keep the regime afloat. "For years, it has been pushing the North to follow its example of economic reform and not political reform. The Kaesong industrial park is a small step in this direction, but there is nothing else."

All this occurs while Asia Times reports that the North Korean ship recently intercepted may have been actually part of an effort to export nuclear and ballistic missile technology to Myanmar.

Four points come to mind.

1. North Korean paranoia isn't disappearing.

2. The US-South Korean defense alliance isn't disappearing.

3. North Korea probably could be defeated militarily, but at a very heavy cost to everyone involved.

4. The Chinese are unhappy with client states which act insanely, without regard for Chinese or even international interests.

Thoughts?