[BRIEF NOTE] A quick look at Yemen

[rfmcdonald]

Back in August, my Demography Matters co-blogger examined Yemen's population. Desperately poor and densely populated, Yemen's situation can only be expected to worsen as the population continues to grow at one of the highest rates in the world while local resources are exhausted.

Yemen has experienced extremely rapid population growth over the last century. The total fertility rate was stable somewhere between 8-9 for the better part of the 20th century and only started to decline slowly in 90's. According to UN estimates, it still at a high level of about 5.3. The result is of course entirely predictable. From a relatively small population of 4.5 million in 1950 it now has about 25 million people, which the UN expects to double again to more than 50 million by 2050. Yemen has an extraordinarily young population with a median age of about 18 years and almost two thirds of the population younger than 25.

Such a young population would be a challenge for far more functional states than Yemen. With a stagnant economy and a state so weak it's barely existant outside cities, Yemen can't provide jobs and education for its young. The unemployment rate is estimated (and it's probably a very rough estimate) to be aroundd 35%. The education system can't keep up with the exploding population and it is estimated that around 2/3 of women are illiterate and more than two million children do not attend school.

Now, the Times of London's Judith Evans tells us, the country is running out of water.

Hannan, an 18-year-old mother of one from Lahej, near Aden, said that only the comparatively well-off could plan for cuts in supply. “In a good week we’ll have a water supply all week but then the following week there will be water only for a day or two,” she said.

She and her husband, a factory worker, pay 3,000 riyals (£9) for a week’s supply of water from a touring water truck when the taps run dry. With an income of only 20,000 riyals (£60) per month, this means the family often spend half their income on water.

“There are a lot of people who can’t afford it and they have to rely on their neighbours to help,” she said.

Her neighbour, Anisa, 40, said: “When the water goes, it’s a sign of trouble in the community.”

Water available across Yemen amounts to 100 to 200 cubic metres per person per year, far below the international water poverty line of 1,000 cubic metres.

Groundwater reserves are being used faster than they can replenish themselves, especially in the Sanaa basin, where water once found 20 metres below the surface is now 200 metres deep, and despite the rainwater tanks on the roofs of most houses.

In desperation some citizens have dug unlicensed wells, compounding the problem. In Taiz, in the south, tapwater is available only once every 45 days. In the mountainous Malhan district in the north, women and children climb a 1,500m mountain to collect water from a spring, often in the small hours to avoid long queues.

Aslak mentioned the risk posed by Yemen's proximity to the oil- and natural gas-rich countries of the Persian Gulf. Others could point to Yemen's geographical position, just north of Somalia across the shipping routes that pass from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, and wonder if piracy might be another side-effect of Yemen's collapse.

Thoughts?