After watching the post Stanley Cup riots in Vancouver with equal parts fascination and horror, it's probably only natural to wonder if a similar situation could erupt in one's hometown. Barring the fact that the Leafs aren't likely to go that deep in the playoffs any time soon, with the one-year anniversary of the G20 and all the troubling events that accompanied it on the horizon, images of burning police cruisers and riot police are easy to recollect around these parts.
Needless to say, however, losing game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals ain't exactly the same context as a gathering of world leaders. In fact, aside from the visuals, they're hardly comparable. So we took to Twitter to gauge what our followers had to say about the possibility of something similar ever happening in Toronto.
Qaddafi is losing ground for a variety of reasons. His military is a bunch of unhappy draftees; morale is low. (Civilian morale is no better.) NATO is preventing him from using his air, armor, or heavy artillery, while also degrading his 4C. He has every reason to be paranoid about a coup, which means he must restrict power and personal interaction to a small trusted circle, which cuts down on his (already degraded) ability to process information and respond effectively.
Here’s my take on this: things are likely to get worse for him, because the more ground he loses, the more likely he is to lose more ground. He’s probably still able to launch counterattacks at the tactical level, so he may well be able to roll back the rebels in one or more areas. But he won’t easily be able to build on those victories, because they won’t change the underlying diplomatic, economic, or internal-political dynamics. To accomplish that, he’d have to win a major, crushing victory — retake Misurata, say, or wipe the Berbers off the map. That’s unlikely to happen. Meanwhile, rebel victories in the field do change the correlation of forces — they further depress Loyalist morale, make Qaddafi’s remaining foreign allies less enthusiastic about standing up for him, make major desertions more likely, and thus make Qaddafi ever more paranoid and isolated. Simply put, he’s trying to climb a slope that’s steadily getting steeper.
One, the dismount is going to be tricky. Much depends on how Qaddafi leaves the building. If he flees like Ben Ali, that’s one thing. If he’s taken out by a coup, that’s another. If it ends with rebel columns rolling into Tripoli ... that’s actually pretty unlikely. So, flee or coup.
Say it’s a coup. Then what? Qaddafi’s inner circle are still around. Say they can be sidelined. (How? Could get messy.) You’ve still got a functioning state government in Tripoli. And that’s great — nobody wants a Somalia on Europe’s doorstep. But whoever ends up running it, that state government is not going to be eager to hand over power to a bunch of scruffy rebels in Benghazi. (Never mind a bunch of Berbers. Ugh, Berbers.) On the other hand, the National Transition Council (NTC) — the guys in Benghazi — are reasonably going to ask why they should acknowledge the authority of a bunch of guys in Tripoli who, until last Tuesday, were loyal apparatchiks of the Supreme Leader. So, watch for some sort of National Reconciliation Council, possibly brokered by friendly foreign powers.
Two, legitimacy. PQL is likely to be a troubled place in various ways. Qaddafi did a pretty good job of crushing civil society. The country is divided by regions and tribes. Nobody has any meaningful experience with civil liberties or democratic institutions. Everyone’s going to be armed. A significant amount of nation-building type assistance is going to be required, and frankly it’s none too soon to start.
Meanwhile, who’ll have legitimacy? The NTC can advance a plausible claim if they’ve reached a clear point of military dominance — control over most of the country’s territory and population, Loyalists clearly falling backwards. They’re nowhere near that point today. Otherwise, legitimacy will have to come from, sigh, democratic elections. I sigh because those are likely to be... problematic. Libya’s a country that has never had anything remotely approaching a fair and clean election. And being in political opposition, in Libya, has not historically been a great career choice. So everyone is likely to enter this thinking winner-take-all, so our side must not be allowed to lose! Things could work out, but...
Iceland is set to launch detailed European Union accession talks at the end of June, EU diplomats said on Wednesday, setting off a process that could take several years and hit snags over fishing rules and debt.
The early phase of talks should proceed smoothly, because unlike other EU hopefuls in the western Balkans, Iceland comes to the negotiating table well prepared in many areas thanks to its membership in Europe’s economic and travel cooperation zones, diplomats say.
On June 27, the island state will start talks in four out of more than 30 policy areas that will be covered in the process designed to bring national laws in line with EU rules.
It will close two – covering science issues and education and culture – while discussions on public procurement rules and media laws will continue in the coming months.
“This is quite a sensational start, since we not only open but also close chapters the same day,” said Gergely Polner, a spokesman for the Hungarian government, which holds the EU’s six-month rotating presidency until the end of June.
But the nation of 320,000 people faces difficult issues later in the process, when it will likely have to address EU opposition to its whaling traditions and share control over its lucrative fishing industry. Disputes over fishing quotas between the EU and Iceland have escalated in recent months, with Brussels deciding in January to block Icelandic fishing vessels carrying mackerel from landing in its ports.
Iceland determined that it was under no legal or moral obligation to underwrite the reckless behaviour of its commercial banks, whose assets soared to 10 times gross domestic product, making them grenades ready to explode. Ireland took the opposite view and guaranteed its banks, much to the rage of the taxpayers. As a result, Ireland’s debt-to-GDP has climbed four-fold since the financial crisis.
Iceland also refused to compensate Britain and the Netherlands for reimbursing the more than 300,000 depositors of Icesave, one of Iceland’s dud banks. The depositors should have received the money from the Icelandic government’s depositor protection scheme, but the country did not have a kronor to spare (proceeds from the liquidation of Landsbanki are expected to meet much of the liability, which explains why Britain and the Netherlands, though angry, have not gone berserk).
[. . .]
Compare this Greece, where the European Union, the IMF and the European Central Bank are in open warfare about the best way to equip Athens with the next rescue package. Germany wants Greek bondholders to contribute to the painful effort; the ECB condemns the idea, insisting that any tweaking of the bonds’ maturities or yields would amount to a default with potentially catastrophic consequences. No wonder Greek bond yields are north of 20 per cent.
Iceland’s other clever move was to keep its own currency. The kronor depreciated about 50 per cent against the euro during the crisis. As a result, exports took off, contributing greatly to the improvement in the trade balance. GDP growth should be 2.2 per cent this year, and 2.9 per cent in 2012, and the budget deficit is narrowing considerably.
[. . .]
Here’s the big question: Given Iceland’s progress, why oh why does it want to join the EU? It applied for membership in 2009 and expects to become a member in 2013 or 2014. Of course, EU membership does not mean adopting the euro, but most EU countries eventually scrap their own currencies. Given the horror show in the three bailed out euro zone countries, you have to wonder whether Iceland would be making a big mistake giving up its fiscal independence.
For I will consider my Cat Jeoffry.
For he is the servant of the Living God duly and daily serving him.
For at the first glance of the glory of God in the East he worships in his way.
For is this done by wreathing his body seven times round with elegant quickness.
For then he leaps up to catch the musk, which is the blessing of God upon his prayer.
For he rolls upon prank to work it in.
For having done duty and received blessing he begins to consider himself.
For this he performs in ten degrees.
For first he looks upon his fore-paws to see if they are clean.
For secondly he kicks up behind to clear away there.
For thirdly he works it upon stretch with the fore-paws extended.
For fourthly he sharpens his paws by wood.
For fifthly he washes himself.
For Sixthly he rolls upon wash.
For Seventhly he fleas himself, that he may not be interrupted upon the beat.
For Eighthly he rubs himself against a post.
For Ninthly he looks up for his instructions.
For Tenthly he goes in quest of food.
For having consider'd God and himself he will consider his neighbour.
For if he meets another cat he will kiss her in kindness.
For when he takes his prey he plays with it to give it chance.
For one mouse in seven escapes by his dallying.
For when his day's work is done his business more properly begins.
For he keeps the Lord's watch in the night against the adversary.
For he counteracts the powers of darkness by his electrical skin and glaring eyes.
For he counteracts the Devil, who is death, by brisking about the life.
For in his morning orisons he loves the sun and the sun loves him.
For he is of the tribe of Tiger.
For the Cherub Cat is a term of the Angel Tiger.
For he has the subtlety and hissing of a serpent, which in goodness he suppresses.
For he will not do destruction, if he is well-fed, neither will he spit without provocation.
For he purrs in thankfulness, when God tells him he's a good Cat.
For he is an instrument for the children to learn benevolence upon.
For every house is incompleat without him and a blessing is lacking in the spirit.
For the Lord commanded Moses concerning the cats at the departure of the Children of Israel from Egypt.
For every family had one cat at least in the bag.
For the English Cats are the best in Europe.
For he is the cleanest in the use of his fore-paws of any quadrupede.
For the dexterity of his defence is an instance of the love of God to him exceedingly.
For he is the quickest to his mark of any creature.
For he is tenacious of his point.
For he is a mixture of gravity and waggery.
For he knows that God is his Saviour.
For there is nothing sweeter than his peace when at rest.
For there is nothing brisker than his life when in motion.
For he is of the Lord's poor and so indeed is he called by benevolence perpetually --
Poor Jeoffry! poor Jeoffry! the rat has bit thy throat.
For I bless the name of the Lord Jesus that Jeoffry is better.
For the divine spirit comes about his body to sustain it in compleat cat.
For his tongue is exceeding pure so that it has in purity what it wants in musick.
For he is docile and can learn certain things.
For he can set up with gravity which is patience upon approbation.
For he can fetch and carry, which is patience in employment.
For he can jump over a stick which is patience upon proof positive.
For he can spraggle upon waggle at the word of command.
For he can jump from an eminence into his master's bosom.
For he can catch the cork and toss it again.
For he is hated by the hypocrite and miser.
For the former is affraid of detection.
For the latter refuses the charge.
For he camels his back to bear the first notion of business.
For he is good to think on, if a man would express himself neatly,
For he made a great figure in Egypt for his signal services.
For he killed the Ichneumon-rat very pernicious by land.
For his ears are so acute that they sting again.
For from this proceeds the passing quickness of his attention.
For by stroaking of him I have found out electricity.
For I perceived God's light about him both wax and fire.
For the Electrical fire is the spiritual substance,
which God sends from heaven to sustain the bodies both of man and beast.
For God has blessed him in the variety of his movements.
For, though he cannot fly, he is an excellent clamberer.
For his motions upon the face of the earth are more than any other quadrupede.
For he can tread to all the measures upon the musick.
For he can swim for life.
For he can creep.
by Christopher Smart (1722 - 1771)
Lauren Kasman is no stranger to blogging. Over the past eight years, she's been typing away in her room and jotting down her thoughts for friends to read. When she moved to Washington, D.C., for college, she wanted to connect with others outside of her social circle.
"I felt like no one was listening. And with a blog the whole point is to have someone on the other end," she says. "Otherwise, you know, it's like placing a phone call to no one."
Kasman's frustration grew. She couldn't quite figure out how to connect with others. Then, her friends told her about Tumblr.
She created an account on Tumblr, or what's called a tumblog, in this case. Within a day, she had 10 followers — people who have linked to her blog and are reading what she writes.
Users can post text, images, videos, audio, quotes from a story or famous person, and links to other websites by clicking clearly visible buttons on the top of the main screen.
In January, the 4-year-old site had more than 7 million individual blogs. In the past six months, the number has nearly tripled. Tumblr now has about the same number of bloggers as Wordpress, a blogging site that has been around for eight years.
Mark Coatney, who works at Tumblr, equates using Tumblr to a daily activity many of us know pretty well.
"It's more almost like, you know, an email experience in a way," he says. "You'll dash off an email or do a tweet or something like that because it's quick and easy, so it's kind of taking that thinking and applying it to blogging."
Coatney's job is to help media outlets like The New York Times, Newsweek and The Huffington Post start their tumblogs.
"It kind of speaks to what I think is a new and emerging thing in journalism, which is kind of talking to your audience on a peer-to-peer level," Coatney says, "as opposed to the broadcast model where you put it out and people consume it."
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