[URBAN NOTE] On Toronto's downtown-suburban alterance

[rfmcdonald]

Writing in the National Post, Megan O'Toole writes that Toronto's incumbent mayor, David Miller, would likely win if he ran again (which he said he wouldn't, but never mind). Why?

Conducted on behalf of the National Post, Global Television and Newstalk 1010 from Friday to Sunday, the poll shows the power of incumbency, experts say, but also highlights a void on the left.

“The flag carrier for the left, or the progressive side, of the municipal agenda in the mayoralty race has not been particularly robust,” said Myer Siemiatycki, an expert in municipal politics at Ryerson University.

Recent poll numbers show Rob Ford — a right-winger running on promises to reduce wasteful spending at City Hall — has taken an 11-point lead in the mayoral race, with 32% support.

Mr. Miller announced last year that he would not seek re-election. His right-hand man, Joe Pantalone, entered the race but has failed to pick up steam as an alternative for left-leaning voters. In recent days, speculation on the left side of the spectrum has focused on a potential reversal by Mr. Miller or a late entry by Councillor Adam Vaughan; both declined to comment yesterday.

If Mr. Miller did enter the race, Ipsos pollster John Wright said, he would win “handily,” likely gaining support at the expense of George Smitherman and in some suburban areas, Mr. Ford.

“It appears that a lot of people would rather have what they know than what they don’t,” Mr. Wright said.

She notes in a separate post that Rob Ford, the front-runner, draws his support from a high degree of geographic polarization.

The Ipsos Reid survey conducted for the National Post, Global Television and Newstalk 1010 over the weekend shows 27% of Torontonians think Mr. Ford, if elected, would do the best job of governing the city. George Smitherman came in second at 19%.

Mr. Ford also edged out Mr. Smitherman as the most divisive candidate on the ballot; 24% of Torontonians say they would never vote for Mr. Ford, compared with 22% who say the same about Mr. Smitherman.

Mr. Ford has been riding a wave of taxpayer anger in the suburbs, where voters are eager for a candidate who will clamp down on city hall spending, Ipsos pollster John Wright noted. While Mr. Ford is ahead of Mr. Smitherman in the overall race by 11 points, his lead is significantly higher in the suburbs — in Etobicoke, for instance, Mr. Ford has a 35-point lead. And while about a third of downtown Torontonians say they would never vote for Mr. Ford, suburban voters appear more likely to rule out Mr. Smitherman.

“This is the suburbs candidate versus the city candidate, and suburbs are winning,” Mr. Wright said. “[T]here is great antipathy in the downtown core toward Rob Ford getting in, but on the other hand there are a whole lot of people who would say, well, if he’s going to get in, it sounds like he’s going to shake things up.”

Last night, lemurbouy suggests that Toronto might have Nigerian-style politics, in that the office of the presidency is held, in alternating terms, by politicians from the north then the south. With downtowner Miller succeeding suburban Lastman and Miller himself quite possibly to be succeeded by suburban Ford, he might not be so far off the mark.