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rfmcdonaldThe rumours I'd heard in the Twittersphere were true: Rob Ford easily leads in the polls, suggesting that unless something radical occurs he'll be Toronto's next mayor.
At blogTO, Tomasz Bugajski wondered if Mayor Rob Ford might work out like Mayor Mel Lastman, a man renowned for gaffes like not knowing what the World Health Organization was during the 2003 SARS crisis, or joking about being afraid about being eaten by cannibals before a visit to Africa, but who also did a lot of good.
Bugajski ultimately doesn't think Ford could be a Lastman, since Ford doesn't have Lastman's track record of multiple achievements. That's also the opinion of eye weekly's Edward Keenan, who writes in a front-page article ("When Rob Ford becomes mayor ...") that Ford isn't likely to achieve many of his grand plans simply because Toronto has a weak mayor and a strong city council, and that Ford's inability to form substantive alliances without other city councillors and the realities of politics (the province is not going to let Ford cancel Transit City and use the money for whatever plan he wants) will practically ensure gridlock.
The thing is, Ford wouldn't be doing nearly so well if his competitors actually were attractive in their own rights, with George Smitherman dropped in from the Ontario provincial government and Rocco Rossi from the Liberal Party, and Joe Pantalone the only sort of heir to David Miller's sad, confused legacy. Ford's policies might be mostly ill-founded, but he has these policies, thus he has the positive appeal necessary to make breakthroughs.
A new poll suggests Toronto mayoral candidate Rob Ford is leading the pack with the support of 45.8 per cent of decided voters, giving him a 24-point lead over his closest rival.
The Nanos Research telephone poll, commissioned by CTV and the Globe and Mail, surveyed 1,021 Torontonians between Sept. 14 and 16. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
It places George Smitherman at 21.3 per cent of the vote. In third place is Joe Pantalone with 16.8, while Rocco Rossi is in fourth with 9.7 per cent and Sarah Thomson fifth with 6.4.
In June, a Nanos poll showed Ford doing well only in Etobicoke while the latest poll shows Ford doing well everywhere, including in the old city of Toronto. "I think we're entering a new part of the campaign," said Nik Nanos, president of Nanos Research.
"I think the next part of the campaign is going to be focused on two questions: Is Rob Ford up for the job to be the next mayor of Toronto? If not, who is the main challenger that could be an alternative to him in case Rob Ford falters in the next weeks?"
At blogTO, Tomasz Bugajski wondered if Mayor Rob Ford might work out like Mayor Mel Lastman, a man renowned for gaffes like not knowing what the World Health Organization was during the 2003 SARS crisis, or joking about being afraid about being eaten by cannibals before a visit to Africa, but who also did a lot of good.
Lastman was more than his gaffes. Unlike Ford, whose father was an established business owner and politician, Lastman was born to Polish-Jewish immigrants who ran a fruit stand in Kensington Market. He was a self-made man, naturally prone to salesmanship, and made a name for himself selling appliances and then starting Bad Boy Furniture.
Lastman first became mayor of North York in 1972 and held the position for 25 years. North York developed from a quiet suburb to an urban destination for businesses, shoppers, and residents during this period - something which Lastman can proudly take credit for.
As mayor of Toronto, Lastman successfully presided over the largest municipal amalgamation in Canadian history. He led efforts to make Toronto restaurants smoke-free, secured $1.5 billion in funding for the redevelopment of Toronto's waterfront, and was a strong advocate for more federal and provincial support for the city.
Opinions of Lastman's record are surely mixed. His 1999 decision to bring in Canada's military to help with that year's blizzard made Toronto a laughing stock to the rest of Canada and his prized Sheppard subway line goes nearly unused today.
But overall, over three decades, he was a major factor in our city's growth.
Bugajski ultimately doesn't think Ford could be a Lastman, since Ford doesn't have Lastman's track record of multiple achievements. That's also the opinion of eye weekly's Edward Keenan, who writes in a front-page article ("When Rob Ford becomes mayor ...") that Ford isn't likely to achieve many of his grand plans simply because Toronto has a weak mayor and a strong city council, and that Ford's inability to form substantive alliances without other city councillors and the realities of politics (the province is not going to let Ford cancel Transit City and use the money for whatever plan he wants) will practically ensure gridlock.
[W]e’re looking at four years of angry shouting and a loud, probably unproductive argument between Ford and council (and between Ford and the province and between Ford and the city’s labour unions and between Ford and city staff…).
He might well succeed in stopping progress altogether in a few areas: grinding Transit City to a halt, cutting some taxes and slashing spending on arts and cultural programs. The city’s years-in-progress bike plan might be scrapped or halted, environmental progress rolled back. But Ford would replace those with nothing.
The opportunity cost — what we’ll miss out on by taking no action — will be huge. Development will slow as the planning department becomes paralyzed by political deadlock. Transit growth will stop and basic maintenance and service will be cut as the commission endlessly debates how to square financial and contractual circles. Basic infrastructure will be neglected. In short, the city will start to rot.
The thing is, Ford wouldn't be doing nearly so well if his competitors actually were attractive in their own rights, with George Smitherman dropped in from the Ontario provincial government and Rocco Rossi from the Liberal Party, and Joe Pantalone the only sort of heir to David Miller's sad, confused legacy. Ford's policies might be mostly ill-founded, but he has these policies, thus he has the positive appeal necessary to make breakthroughs.
