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rfmcdonaldThe latest poll numbers look fairly good for George Smitherman vis-a-vis Rob Ford.
Further helping Smitherman out, his likely competition Rocco Rossi has withdrawn from the campaign, likely in response to (among other things( that 4$ support.
eye weekly's Shawn Micallef pretty much expresses my opinion when he says that the sudden shift in strategic voting that drives the anything-but-Ford movement that has propelled Smitherman isn't inspiring, but then, it's better than the alternative of Ford as mayor. Far better.
A new poll conducted over Thanksgiving weekend shows a dead heat between Toronto mayoral frontrunners Rob Ford and George Smitherman, with the former deputy premier edging the Etobicoke councillor by one percentage point.
Of the 400 people surveyed in the Ipsos Reid poll, conducted for Newstalk 1010, 31 per cent said they plan to vote for Mr. Smitherman – and 30 per cent supported Mr. Ford. Deputy mayor Joe Pantalone garnered 11 per cent of the vote, while 4 per cent of those polled said they’d vote for Rocco Rossi if the vote were held tomorrow.
This shows a significant change from previous polls, which gave Mr. Ford a commanding lead: A 1,000-person Nanos poll conducted for The Globe, CTV and CP24 in early September gave Mr. Ford a 24-percentage-point lead; an Ipsos Reid poll conducted Sept. 24-26 gave Mr. Ford a five-percentage-point lead – 28 per cent of the 400 people surveyed, compared with 23 per cent for Mr. Smitherman.
Mr. Ford, whose mantra of cutting waste at City Hall has given him momentum since he entered the race in March, became the candidate to beat after Labour Day. Mr. Smitherman has sold himself as the candidate most likely to defeat the Etobicoke councillor, and it appears to be working: He has won endorsements from both sides of the political spectrum – from the likes of councillor Joe Mihevc, who said he would otherwise have supported Mr. Pantalone but is worried about his ability to defeat Mr. Ford, and writer Peter C. Newman, who had previously supported Mr. Rossi but subsequently changed his mind for the same reason.
The poll also indicated a sizable number of voters are still on the fence, however: A quarter of those polled said they still have no idea whom they’ll vote for come Oct. 25. And while the majority – 54 per cent – of those polled said they intend to cast a ballot on election day, voter intention was highest in Etobicoke, (73 per cent), followed by Toronto (60 per cent), East York (53 per cent), Scarborough (51 per cent) and North York (38 per cent). Mr. Pantalone’s supporters said they’re the most likely to vote, with 72 per cent saying they intend to cast a ballot. He’s followed by those supporting Mr. Smitherman (65 per cent), Mr. Ford (57 per cent) and Mr. Rossi (37 per cent).
Further helping Smitherman out, his likely competition Rocco Rossi has withdrawn from the campaign, likely in response to (among other things( that 4$ support.
Liberals within his camp and without had been putting pressure on Rossi to bow out a couple of weeks ago as it became clearer his Tory-lite campaign was failing to gain traction with voters on the right gravitating to Rob Ford, and those closer to the centre backing George Smitherman.
The final straw came last night. Rossi’s somewhat unlikely run for mayor ended officially in the hours after an Ipsos-Reid poll commissioned by CFRB found him way backing the pack – again – at four per cent of decided voters.
[. . .]
In reality Rossi’s campaign has been in desperate shape since the post Labour Day bump he got (very short lived) for proposing a tunnel to nowhere and following that with a wild stab at name recognition with Mafioso-inspired print and radio ads. None of it worked.
Rossi tried to persevere, even as prominent members of his campaign were jumping ship and the letters urging him to drop out to stop Ford from prominent supporters like Peter C. Newman were being leaked to the media.
eye weekly's Shawn Micallef pretty much expresses my opinion when he says that the sudden shift in strategic voting that drives the anything-but-Ford movement that has propelled Smitherman isn't inspiring, but then, it's better than the alternative of Ford as mayor. Far better.
The winner will know that lots of folks reluctantly came around to them and, as they say, held their nose and voted. In an ideal world, that candidate would recognize that Toronto’s centre, left and right, came around and reluctantly placed their trust in them for four years. In that time, other, more appealing candidates will emerge, one hopes. Our new mayor will need to appeal to these swing voters and govern Toronto accordingly. Ideally.
