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rfmcdonaldTalk of Russia's Far East being taken over by Chinese migrants has been ongoing for a century, at least, most recently in the post-Soviet era as--as fellow Demography Matters blogger Claus Vistesen noted in 2006--the population of the Russian Far East is falling owing to unfavourable mortality and emigration trends.
This is not going to happen. I blogged about the reasons for this back in September 2009 and again this January pointing out that there isn't any reason at all to assume there's going to be any substantial Chinese migration to Siberia--the demographics don't work, the economics don't work, the reality doesn't work, basically. This August, actually, I argued that rising living standards in northeastern China may well attract some migrants from the Russian Far East, eager people willing to take advantage of the excellent opportunities available in a fast-modernizing, superbly-infrastructured, region. Anatoly Karlin, for his post, in his 2009 post "The Myth of the Yellow Peril: Overhyping Chinese Migration into Russia" went into excellent detail about the precise demographics of the Chinese migrants and why there just aren't enough, adding extra reality in his appraisal of the geopolitical situation.
Now, in his most recent post, Anatoly goes into much greater detail as to the political, geopolitical, and military reasons that China will not try to take over Russian territory. The costs to China of a war would be too great even if a Russo-Chinese nuclear exchange was avoided, while China's attention is focused on its overseas issues not on its North Asian frontiers, and both Russia and China are rational actors. Would that rationality prevail for all the proponents of this outdated fantasy..
This is not going to happen. I blogged about the reasons for this back in September 2009 and again this January pointing out that there isn't any reason at all to assume there's going to be any substantial Chinese migration to Siberia--the demographics don't work, the economics don't work, the reality doesn't work, basically. This August, actually, I argued that rising living standards in northeastern China may well attract some migrants from the Russian Far East, eager people willing to take advantage of the excellent opportunities available in a fast-modernizing, superbly-infrastructured, region. Anatoly Karlin, for his post, in his 2009 post "The Myth of the Yellow Peril: Overhyping Chinese Migration into Russia" went into excellent detail about the precise demographics of the Chinese migrants and why there just aren't enough, adding extra reality in his appraisal of the geopolitical situation.
The problem with this is that even if it were to succeed in conquering it, actually building up the infrastructure for human accommodation will take decades; the land is barren, mountainous and will remain very cold even after significant global warming. The actual war will be very costly for the Chinese because the Russians will almost certainly use their huge stockpile of tactical nuclear weapons to check the assault. Should the Russians lose, it's possible they will unleash their much superior strategic nuclear arsenal or even worse weapons on China - thus destroying their industrial infrastructure and precipitating a massive die-off.
Hence I believe that if, or more likely when, ecological problems reach a critical point in China they will expand into (by then collapsed) East Africa, using the mighty navy they foresightedly built up to forestall anyone who has a problem with that. It will also guarantee continued energy, food and resource flows into metropolitan China from Australia and Latin America. Eventually it is possible that Russia (and Canada) will fully open up their borders to immigration from the sinking and drying south, in which case the Far East will become Chinese. But this is all futuristic speculation.
Now, in his most recent post, Anatoly goes into much greater detail as to the political, geopolitical, and military reasons that China will not try to take over Russian territory. The costs to China of a war would be too great even if a Russo-Chinese nuclear exchange was avoided, while China's attention is focused on its overseas issues not on its North Asian frontiers, and both Russia and China are rational actors. Would that rationality prevail for all the proponents of this outdated fantasy..
