[DM] "On projections and predictions and their flaws"

[rfmcdonald]

I've a post up at Demography Matters, exploring the numerous flaws that Future Babble by Dan Gardner has indicated in long-term demographic projections. I'd like to think that we've made good, careful predictions--projections using numbers for the medium-term, predictions based on cultural patterns more useful for the longer term--but, mistakes aside, what will happen to our predictions when unexpected revolutions occur?

Go, read.