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rfmcdonaldI'd like to thank S. for pointing me to this news story (the first link is Russia, the below text is in English from a separate article).
This is the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia that we're talking about, not the closely related Eurasian Economic Community that includes Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as well, with Uzbekistan as a member of suspended membership and Ukraine, Armenia, and Moldova as associate members. It's been suggested that Ukraine might join the customs union, but its internal political issues seem likely to prevent that. Conversely, the dependence of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on Russia (and Kazakhstan) as markets and as destinations for migrant labour makes likely that they will join soon. The stated expectation is that, contrary to fears that a customs union might delay these countries' membership in the World Trade Organization, things will be fine.
Is this notable news? Yes, inasmuch as the economic unification of the geographical core of the former Soviet Union--excluding Ukraine, mind--is notable news. If this integration actually comes off, that is; any number of previous post-Soviet integration plans have failed, although this one seems different. The Times' Tony Halpin wrote about some of the underlying goials of this from a Russsian foreign-policy perspective.
That's fine. Would--will--very much change? Assuming that this actually existing customs union was a political bloc under Moscow's control (which it isn't), the population of the three states effectively under the control of Moscow would rise from 143 million to 170 million, a notable increase but one that would do relatively little to alter its rankings globally, with a population smaller than that of any of the BRIC states and Indonesia (though larger than Bangladesh, Nigeria, and perhaps also Pakistan) and one that would still be shrinking. Aggregate GDP would be larger, but per capita GDP would be smaller since Russia's two smaller partners--never mind Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan especially--are at best on par or more frequently below Russian GDP per capita levels. But such a centralized polity isn't in existence, and isn't likely to exist because Belarus and Kazakhstan are countries run by people and inhabited by people who see themselves as nations distinct if not separate from the Russian. Certainly no one's talking about Russian military deployments.
So, cool. Congratulations on the successful integration project, and may it continue as far as the participants might want it to!
Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan today agreed to create a fully fledged common economic space by 2012 after the three nations set up a customs union this year.
The three nations signed 17 joint documents to create a common economic space and invited other former Soviet republics to join the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC).
"At their summit Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan have taken the decision to create their Customs Union and Common Economic Space," Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced after the Kremlin summit of the EurAsEC Inter-state Council.
"We have laid the foundation of real, true integration within the Customs Union and EurAsEC," Medvedev said at the joint press conference with his Belarus and Kazakh counterparts.
He said that this opens the opportunities for the free flow of capital, services, ideas and single economic policy just like in the European Union.
"This absolutely a different quality of life. The significance of such integration became especially obvious at the time of financial-economic crisis, when EU could ensure support to its member nations and prop the rate of common currency," Medvedev said giving the example of the European Union and urged other members to carry out economic and financial reforms to join the EurAsEC.
Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenka said twenty years after the demise of the USSR, the three former Soviet countries with a total population of 170 million through economic, political and defence integration are moving towards a Eurasian Union, which will become a powerful player on the global scene.
This is the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia that we're talking about, not the closely related Eurasian Economic Community that includes Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as well, with Uzbekistan as a member of suspended membership and Ukraine, Armenia, and Moldova as associate members. It's been suggested that Ukraine might join the customs union, but its internal political issues seem likely to prevent that. Conversely, the dependence of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on Russia (and Kazakhstan) as markets and as destinations for migrant labour makes likely that they will join soon. The stated expectation is that, contrary to fears that a customs union might delay these countries' membership in the World Trade Organization, things will be fine.
Is this notable news? Yes, inasmuch as the economic unification of the geographical core of the former Soviet Union--excluding Ukraine, mind--is notable news. If this integration actually comes off, that is; any number of previous post-Soviet integration plans have failed, although this one seems different. The Times' Tony Halpin wrote about some of the underlying goials of this from a Russsian foreign-policy perspective.
Were Ukraine to sign up, there would be a common economic space encompassing the “Big Four” republics of the Soviet era, with a combined population of 213 million and stretching from the European Union to China. Its political, military and economic centre would be in Moscow, where Mr Putin is expected to reclaim the presidency in 2012 for up to 12 more years.
A common currency would give him an economic lever to challenge the US dollar and the euro by creating a regional reserve currency. Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin stated last month that Russia, as the world’s largest energy supplier, may soon sell oil in roubles.
A restored union also offers Russia a chance to “bulk up” as it fights for survival between the EU and Chinese giants. Its industry is outdated in comparison to Europe and out-priced in labour costs by China, so a future beckons as supplier of energy and raw materials to both economies. Mr Putin has no interest in competing on price in these markets with Kazakhstan or Ukraine.
Other ex-Soviet republics would find it hard to resist the gravitational pull of a single currency and economic space. Armenia’s economy is almost completely owned by Russian companies already, neighbouring Azerbaijan would risk Russian meddling in the frozen conflict over the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, and struggling Kyrgyzstan has already accepted a $2.15 billion (£1,6 billion) bailout from Moscow.
That's fine. Would--will--very much change? Assuming that this actually existing customs union was a political bloc under Moscow's control (which it isn't), the population of the three states effectively under the control of Moscow would rise from 143 million to 170 million, a notable increase but one that would do relatively little to alter its rankings globally, with a population smaller than that of any of the BRIC states and Indonesia (though larger than Bangladesh, Nigeria, and perhaps also Pakistan) and one that would still be shrinking. Aggregate GDP would be larger, but per capita GDP would be smaller since Russia's two smaller partners--never mind Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan especially--are at best on par or more frequently below Russian GDP per capita levels. But such a centralized polity isn't in existence, and isn't likely to exist because Belarus and Kazakhstan are countries run by people and inhabited by people who see themselves as nations distinct if not separate from the Russian. Certainly no one's talking about Russian military deployments.
So, cool. Congratulations on the successful integration project, and may it continue as far as the participants might want it to!
