![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
rfmcdonaldThe protests in Libya are going to be revolutionary indeed. Will the Great Leader meet justice, rude or otherwise? I can't speculate, although the expected analogies with Romania in the late 1980s strike me as promising too much for him: Ceausescu was at least appreciated by Western powers as an autonomous power within the Soviet bloc, making things easier during the Cold War in a certain pleasant unexpected sense, but Muammar Gadaffi's post-2003 transformation just brought him up to the bare minimum expected of a responsible state.
Last night Toronto time, his son Saif al-Islam delivered a live speech to the Libyan people. Besides demonstrating the failed flirtation with Libyan dialect noted earlier and the typical contempt felt for the subjected people by the dictator, one element that came out during the live-tweeted speech was an emphasis on Libya's fragility and divisibility.
Gadaffi is self-serving. There does seem to be something there, though. I just know not how much.
I've followed Libya intermittently here--it's been of interest to me mainly as an exemplar of a fragile state, a polity that blames pediatric HIV/AIDS epidemics on evil nurses instead of bad infectious-disease protocols, one that depends on oil to cement together the country. Unlike Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia, with their long histories of statehood within coherent and enduring boundaries (and, in the first two countries, imperialist efforts beyond those frontiers), and unlike an Algeria that gained additional coherence under French colonial rule, the very entity "Libya" was a late formation, as the dominant province of Tripolitania in the west was fused with Cyrenaica in the east on the Egyptian border and Saharan Fezzan in the southwest to form modern Libya in 1934.
As Ahmida noted in his The making of modern Libya, Libya was a very plural society, with the two main areas of habitable land on the northern coast being widely separated by the Gulf of Sirte into two separate societies, each with its own strong linkages extending beyond modern Libya.
When Libya gained its independence, it was established as a federation of three equal regions, perhaps to counter-balance the weight of a Tripolitania that has always been home to two-thirds of the country's population and seems to hold most of Libya's oil. Interestingly, the Senussi religious order that briefly held the monarchy of independent Libya until Gadaffi's 1969 revolution was based in Cyrenaica. The consolidation of power in Tripoli hasn't helped the region. I wonder if the Gadaffi regime's incessant efforts to unify with another Arab country, at least one other, maybe even Malta, might have been an effort to continue the process of state-aggregation.
What does the origin of the protests, and their concentration in Cyrenaica, mean? Italian foreign minister and DEBKAfile alike seem to imply that this revolt might be separatist, but given the cravenly self-serving nature of the Berlusconi government's foreign policy in relationship to Libya and DEBKAfile's bias, I'm not inclined to believe this. Similarly, a division of Libya into Egyptian and Tunisian spheres of influence seems profoundly unlikely, and not only because of the disinterest of Libya's neighbours.
But what does it mean? I don't know; I can only speculate. This informed blog post goes into more detail about the background of regional issues in Libya, but comes to the same conclusion.
You?
Last night Toronto time, his son Saif al-Islam delivered a live speech to the Libyan people. Besides demonstrating the failed flirtation with Libyan dialect noted earlier and the typical contempt felt for the subjected people by the dictator, one element that came out during the live-tweeted speech was an emphasis on Libya's fragility and divisibility.
We have arrested tens of Arabs and Africans, poor people, millions were spent on them to use them by millionaire businessmen. There are people who want to establish a countries in parts of Libya to rule, Like the Islamic Emirate. One person said he is the Emir of Islamic Emirate of Darna. The Arabic Media is manipulating these events. This Arabic media is owned by Arabs who are distorting the facts but also our media failed to cover the events.
[. . .]
It is no lie that the protesters are in control of the streets now. Libya is not Tunis or Egypt. Libya is different, if there was disturbance it will split to several states. It was three states before 60 years. Libya are Tribes not like Egypt. There are no political parties, it is made of tribes. Everyone knows each other. We will have a civil war like in 1936. American Oil Companies played a big part in unifying Libya. Who will manage this oil? How will we divide this oil amongst us? Who will spend on our hospitals? All this oil will be burnt by the Baltagiya (Thugs) they will burn it. There are no people there. 3/4s of our people live in the East in Benghazi, there is no oil there, who will spend on them? Your children will not go to schools or universities. There will be chaos, we will have to leave Libya if we can't share oil. Everyone wants to become a Sheikh and an Emir, we are not Egypt or Tunisia so we are in front of a major challenge.
[. . .]
Before we let weapons come between us, from tomorrow, in 48 hours, we will call or a new conference for new laws. We will call for new media laws, civil rights, lift the stupid punishments, we will have a constitution. Even the Leader Gaddafi said he wants a constitution. We can even have autonomous rule, with limited central govt powers.
[. . .]
What is happening in Bayda and Benghazi is very sad. How do you who live in Benghazi, will you visit Tripoli with a visa? The country will be divided like North and South Korea we will see each other through a fence.
[. . .]
In any case, I have spoken to you, we uncovered cells from Egypt and Tunisia and Arabs. The Libyans who live in Europe and USA, their children go to school and they want you to fight. They are comfortable. They then want to come and rule us and Libya. They want us to kill each other then come, like in Iraq. The Tunisians and Egyptians who are here also have weapons, they want to divide Libya and take over the country.
Gadaffi is self-serving. There does seem to be something there, though. I just know not how much.
I've followed Libya intermittently here--it's been of interest to me mainly as an exemplar of a fragile state, a polity that blames pediatric HIV/AIDS epidemics on evil nurses instead of bad infectious-disease protocols, one that depends on oil to cement together the country. Unlike Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia, with their long histories of statehood within coherent and enduring boundaries (and, in the first two countries, imperialist efforts beyond those frontiers), and unlike an Algeria that gained additional coherence under French colonial rule, the very entity "Libya" was a late formation, as the dominant province of Tripolitania in the west was fused with Cyrenaica in the east on the Egyptian border and Saharan Fezzan in the southwest to form modern Libya in 1934.
As Ahmida noted in his The making of modern Libya, Libya was a very plural society, with the two main areas of habitable land on the northern coast being widely separated by the Gulf of Sirte into two separate societies, each with its own strong linkages extending beyond modern Libya.
One has to keep in mind that prior to the colonial period and the colonial conquest in 1911, strict borders were nonexistent, as were local ties to just one state. The tribes of western Tripolitania and southern Tunisia had strong confederations and were tied to the larger Muslim community of the Maghreb and the Sahara. The state of Awlad Muhammad in Fezzan was linked to the Lake Chad region for trade and the recruitment of soldiers. It also formed a strategic refuge from the Ottoman state in time of war. Equally important to note are the strong socioeconomic ties between the tribes of Cyrenaica and western Egypt. Cyrenaican tribes viewed western Egyptian cities and the desert as both sanctuaries to escape wars and as markets for agropastoral products (12).
When Libya gained its independence, it was established as a federation of three equal regions, perhaps to counter-balance the weight of a Tripolitania that has always been home to two-thirds of the country's population and seems to hold most of Libya's oil. Interestingly, the Senussi religious order that briefly held the monarchy of independent Libya until Gadaffi's 1969 revolution was based in Cyrenaica. The consolidation of power in Tripoli hasn't helped the region. I wonder if the Gadaffi regime's incessant efforts to unify with another Arab country, at least one other, maybe even Malta, might have been an effort to continue the process of state-aggregation.
What does the origin of the protests, and their concentration in Cyrenaica, mean? Italian foreign minister and DEBKAfile alike seem to imply that this revolt might be separatist, but given the cravenly self-serving nature of the Berlusconi government's foreign policy in relationship to Libya and DEBKAfile's bias, I'm not inclined to believe this. Similarly, a division of Libya into Egyptian and Tunisian spheres of influence seems profoundly unlikely, and not only because of the disinterest of Libya's neighbours.
But what does it mean? I don't know; I can only speculate. This informed blog post goes into more detail about the background of regional issues in Libya, but comes to the same conclusion.
You?
Tags:
