![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
rfmcdonaldThe fact that the New Democratic Party is actually in the lead in Québec--well ahead even of the Bloc Québécois, never mind the Liberals in their insecure ridings in Montréal and the Conservatives in their more secure ridings around Québec City, is something remarkable.
It's quite likely, I think, that the NDP will surpass its previous election results, quite possibly surpassing the party's previous peak in 1988 under Ed Broadbent when the NDP won 43 seats and just over 20% of the vote. Old Liberal strongholds are giving way, it seems. It's possible that NDP support--trailing the Conservatives by three percentage points, 31% to their 34 and the Liberals' 22%
The breakthrough in Québec, now, holds remarkable promise. The thing that ensured minority governments federally for the past decade was the domination of Québec's seats--one-quarter of the total--by the Bloc Québécois. The party that could take these seats could win the majority; but, the Liberals failed to recover, and the Conservatives' overtures (recognizing Québec as a nation within Canada via parliamentary resolution, for instance) never took. That the NDP is the political party may well have beat out the other two parties is noteworthy, suggesting not only that these two parties might still be locked out but (as a consequence) that Canada may still be left with minority governments or, perhaps, the worrisome new possibility of a coalition government.
One more thing: The Liberal Party will certainly see a leadership challenge--Ignatieff has been rather unimpressive--and if, as is possible, Harper doesn't get the Conservatives a majority for the third time in a row, he may also end up being pushed out of the leadership. Besides guaranteeing that the Liberals won't be part of a coalition with the NDP--how could they if they don't even know who leads them?--this will place the two largest parties at a disadvantage relative to a NDP that has a very popular and successful leader in Jack Layton.
All this speculation of course depends on the NDP fulfilling its promise. Many of the demographics which are the strongest NDP supporters--young people, for instance--have low turnout. But Layton's charisma may well manage something like an Obama-style mobilization of these traditionally low-turnout demographics.
It's quite likely, I think, that the NDP will surpass its previous election results, quite possibly surpassing the party's previous peak in 1988 under Ed Broadbent when the NDP won 43 seats and just over 20% of the vote. Old Liberal strongholds are giving way, it seems. It's possible that NDP support--trailing the Conservatives by three percentage points, 31% to their 34 and the Liberals' 22%
The breakthrough in Québec, now, holds remarkable promise. The thing that ensured minority governments federally for the past decade was the domination of Québec's seats--one-quarter of the total--by the Bloc Québécois. The party that could take these seats could win the majority; but, the Liberals failed to recover, and the Conservatives' overtures (recognizing Québec as a nation within Canada via parliamentary resolution, for instance) never took. That the NDP is the political party may well have beat out the other two parties is noteworthy, suggesting not only that these two parties might still be locked out but (as a consequence) that Canada may still be left with minority governments or, perhaps, the worrisome new possibility of a coalition government.
One more thing: The Liberal Party will certainly see a leadership challenge--Ignatieff has been rather unimpressive--and if, as is possible, Harper doesn't get the Conservatives a majority for the third time in a row, he may also end up being pushed out of the leadership. Besides guaranteeing that the Liberals won't be part of a coalition with the NDP--how could they if they don't even know who leads them?--this will place the two largest parties at a disadvantage relative to a NDP that has a very popular and successful leader in Jack Layton.
All this speculation of course depends on the NDP fulfilling its promise. Many of the demographics which are the strongest NDP supporters--young people, for instance--have low turnout. But Layton's charisma may well manage something like an Obama-style mobilization of these traditionally low-turnout demographics.
