[LINK] "Final Projection: Conservative minority, NDP runner-up "

[rfmcdonald]

This analysis seems to set the lower bar for NDP success.

The polls were released later than expected, and so the final projection update is also coming later than expected. Many polls were added to the projection today: 10 in all. They include polls from Nanos Research, Léger Marketing, Forum Research, Abacus Data, COMPAS, EKOS Research, CROP, and Harris-Decima. And several of these firms had multiple polls added to the model as they released new data throughout the day.

In the end, this amount of polls has represented several normal days' worth of movement in the projection. The change has been radical.

On the eve of the vote, ThreeHundredEight.com projects that the Conservative Party will win another minority government, with the New Democrats forming the Official Opposition. The Liberals will place third while the Bloc Québécois will be relegated to the fourth position in the House of Commons.

The Conservatives are projected to take 36.4% of the vote and 143 seats, the same number of seats they had when the government fell. However, considering that two of the three vacancies were safe Conservative seats, we can even say that this is a loss of two for the party.

The New Democrats are projected to take 27.3% of the vote and win 78 seats, an increase of 42 over their pre-election standing. It is almost double their previous best under Ed Broadbent.

The Liberals are projected to win only 22.8% of the vote and elect 60 MPs, a reduction of 17 since the election was called.

The Bloc Québécois is projected to win 28.1% of the vote in Quebec and 6.7% nationally, enough to give them 27 seats in the province. That is a loss of 20 for Gilles Duceppe, and the first time the Bloc would be reduced to a minority of seats in Quebec.

The Greens are projected to win 5.6% of the vote and no seats. No independents are projected to be elected.

Double whoa.

Thanks to james_nicoll for the link.