[LINK] Three #Yemen links: civil war, potential collapse, and the #GCC

[rfmcdonald]

The Houston Chronicle report that Yemen may finally be entering a period of civil war.

Intense battles spread across Yemen's capital Thursday between government forces and opposition militiamen from powerful tribes that warn of civil war unless embattled President Ali Abdullah Saleh steps down. At least 28 people were killed as the four-day death toll neared 110.

The fight — led the Yemen's largest tribe — poses the most significant challenge to Saleh's rule after three months of street demonstrations and failed Arab mediation to ease him from office. Yemen's tribes command well-armed militias and can tap into traditional clan-based loyalties to possibly tips the scales against Saleh's 32-year rule.

Under Yemen's ancient codes, tribal leaders can declare that members follow their orders above all others. This potentially gives tribal chiefs the power to order government soldiers from their clans to stand down.

There was no apparent signals of mass defections from Saleh's military. But some key commanders have jumped to the opposition, and the leader of Yemen's largest tribe, Sheik Sadeq al-Ahmar, warned that Saleh had the option to step down or be held accountable for "dragging the country to a civil war."

The battles broke out Monday after an attempt by government forces to storm al-Ahmar's compound in the heart of the capital Sanaa. By Thursday, the clashes had widened to include areas around Sanaa's airport. At least 109 people have been killed, including at least 28 on Thursday amid differing accounts on the blasts.

Yemen's government said it was an explosion at a weapons storage site. The opposition claimed military forces shelled a building used by tribal fighters loyal to al-Ahmar and other major tribes who have joined him.

The Guardian notes that Yemen, impoverished and profoundly lacking in domestic food production and economic resources generally could face catastrophe if civil war breaks out.

Over the last few days, power shortages have become longer. Much of the capital, Sana'a, has had little or no power and there are long queues for fuel. The fear is that the country's foreign currency reserves are not sufficient to import the oil needed. The worst impact of fuel shortages will be on water supplies, which depend on pumps or truck deliveries. The price of water has shot up by 50% in the last month, and that was before the worsening violence of the last few days.

Fears about the country's foreign reserves will affect the Yemen's continuing ability to import the food it needs.The vast bulk of the country's food is imported and what arable land there is, much of it has been diverted to grow the more profitable qat crops, the herbal drug. Prices for food staples are rising sharply, with wheat up by 66% in the last month.

[. . .]

The problem is that the crisis is exacerbating a long-term humanitarian problem of food insecurity. A third of the country is "undernourished" while 2.7 million people are "severely food insecure". In terms of the stunting of child development, Yemen is second only to Afghanistan as the worst in the world; it is third worst in terms of malnutrition. Half of all under five-year-olds are seriously malnourished. The paradox is that it has levels of hunger more often associated with Africa and yet it is an Arab country with some of the richest countries in the world for neighbours.

[. . . N]o one quite knows what economic collapse in the Yemeni context could mean. Unlike African countries that have experienced comparable levels of food insecurity, there is no subsistence agriculture to provide rural communities with some resilience. If Yemen doesn't have the money to buy oil and food, millions of people could tip over a very precarious boundary from food insecure to starving.

This all makes the prospect of Yemen's accession to the Gulf Cooperation Council, suggested as a way to stabilized Yemen and described by the United Arab Emirates' The National, profoundly unlikely.

For a long time, the arguments against Yemen joining the GCC were weak but convincing, focused on financial assistance and the free movement of people. With a far greater population than most GCC countries and fewer natural resources, Yemen would require a significant inflow of financial assistance. At the same time, the free movement of nationals within an expanded GCC would lead to many Yemenis seeking work in the Gulf, straining those nations.

[. . .]

The rather minor point - which was hardly a minor point before, since it offered the geographical rationale for the GCC - namely that the Gulf Cooperation Council must have some link to the Arabian Gulf, appears to have been long forgotten. No part of Jordan touches the Arabian Gulf. Morocco doesn't even share the same continent.

Another argument against Yemen's inclusion has been its political system. As a republic with local and national elections - and enfranchisement of women - its system of government is different from that of the GCC countries, and from those of Jordan and Morocco, all of which are monarchies. Yet Jordan and Morocco have parliaments, like Yemen, and many GCC countries boast national assemblies.

In itself, differing systems of government should not be an obstacle. So much of the work of the GCC is not focused on political issues, but economic and security co-operation. The GCC should be an institution to foster closer union, not a club of kings.

The argument for expansion to Yemen has always been fairly strong. Cultural, religious and linguistic ties are extremely strong, with many families and clans in the Gulf tracing their heritage to Yemen and many current ties of marriage. The number of expatriate Yemenis across the region further entrenches the connectivity among the countries.

For Yemen, the GCC would bring not only its significant economic resources, but also the experience of building stable institutions. Yemen urgently needs strong institutions that will be able to cope with the upheaval that will be generated by moving to a post-oil future, and reformatting the economy to accommodate a growing population.