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rfmcdonaldThe latest news from Libya suggests that the Gaddafi regime is collapsing.
Over at The Power and the Money, Douglas Muir has a post up, "Endgame in Tripolitania". Note that the post's title doesn't feature a question mark. Douglas' evaluation is that, as the rebels demonstrate a growing competence in military affairs even as the resources available to the government diminish, an end to the Gaddafi government seems inevitable.
As Douglas notes, this all leaves the question of what will happen next unanswered. Will the Libyan rebels manage to consolidate a functioning government? What will happen to the figures of the old regime? Can the thing work?
Rebel fighters have claimed complete control of a sprawling oil refinery in this coastal town, seizing one of Muammar Gaddafi's most important assets after just three days of fighting and delivering the latest in a string of small victories that have suddenly put the rebels at Tripoli's door.
Despite what rebel leaders described as fierce fighting, many of them expressed surprise that the Gaddafi loyalists were routed with relative ease. Some people even wondered whether the chaotic exit by about 50 of the Gaddafi fighters - who fled by boat before they were bombed by NATO warplanes, according to several fighters - was a ruse.
''We hope this is it,'' said Ajali Deeb, a petrochemical engineer at the seized refinery. ''These are indications that the system has started to collapse.''
The six-month history of the Libyan conflict is filled with similar predictions. Even so, the rebels have taken a substantial swathe of territory in western Libya over the past few weeks, and Gaddafi's forces have not mounted a forceful counterattack.
There were other signs of a conflict that had reached a critical moment, if not its final stage. For days, the vital highway from Tunisia to Tripoli has remained closed, controlled by the rebels in a harsh blow to the Gaddafi government, which relies on the road for supplies of food and fuel.
Thousands of refugees are also fleeing daily from Tripoli, some to escape the city's mounting hardships but others expecting that they would be safer in rebel-held areas.
Over at The Power and the Money, Douglas Muir has a post up, "Endgame in Tripolitania". Note that the post's title doesn't feature a question mark. Douglas' evaluation is that, as the rebels demonstrate a growing competence in military affairs even as the resources available to the government diminish, an end to the Gaddafi government seems inevitable.
Suddenly things seem to be moving very fast. It’s possible that Qaddafi could still launch a counterstrike, of course. But he won’t easily be able to undo the results of the past few days; for instance, even if he retakes the coastal towns, the rebels can still destroy highway bridges and overpasses, keeping the capital’s main supply route cut for days or weeks.
One peculiarity of this whole thing is that the eastern front — where the main concentration of government forces faces the main rebel army — has been almost static. The rebels have spent the last few weeks very slowly fighting their way into the town of Brega. Brega sits at the edge of a massive concentration of Libya’s oil infrastructure — pipelines, refineries, an export terminal. So it’s possible that the rebels have been deliberately going slow in order to minimize the risk of damaging large amounts of complex and expensive equipment, hoping that it will fall into their hands intact. Whether this will work out or not remains to be seen.
Another interesting point: the rebel offensive seems to have been remarkably well coordinated, with major offensives in three widely separated fronts. As far as can be told (this is not certain) NATO forces seem to have been working quite effectively with the rebels, providing air cover and helping bring down Loyalist strongpoints. Someone fairly competent is running this show, it seems. It would be nice to know more.
As Douglas notes, this all leaves the question of what will happen next unanswered. Will the Libyan rebels manage to consolidate a functioning government? What will happen to the figures of the old regime? Can the thing work?
