[URBAN NOTE] On Ford's new deep unpopularity across Toronto

[rfmcdonald]

Robyn Doolittle's Toronto Star article "Massive poll shows Toronto is united against Ford’s proposed cuts" reveals that Ford is quite unpopular indeed, not only in the downtown core that has long been the focus of opposition but in the suburbs, as well. The map is stunning.

A Forum Research telephone survey of nearly 13,000 people reveals that more than three-quarters of Torontonians want their local councillor to protect services rather than comply with the mayor’s wishes. And only 27 per cent of residents say they would vote for Rob Ford if an election was held tomorrow.

More significantly, because of the poll’s size, Forum was able to provide the first authoritative assessment of support on a ward-by-ward level.

Forum’s poll, which was paid for by CUPE Local 79, one of two major unions at city hall, questioned 12,848 Toronto residents on Tuesday using a random dial, push-button response, phoning system. The margin of error is plus or minus 0.9 per cent, 19 out 20 times.

Some of the strongest opposition to the current direction at city hall is in the wards of executive committee members.

For example, in Cesar Palacio’s Davenport region, 81.2 per cent of residents want him to fight Ford on cuts. In Willowdale, 82.9 per cent of David Shiner’s constituents are against cutting services.

With a “mushy middle” of councillors emboldened by Ford’s sinking approval, losing even a handful of those previously locked-down votes could tip the scales at council against Ford.

“He’s asking these councillors to put their careers on the line,” said Forum president Lorne Bozinoff. “These councillors are potentially exposing themselves and their careers to challenge in three years from someone who comes along and says: ‘Vote for me, I’ll restore those cutbacks.’”

As for Ford’s low approval rating, Bozinoff said one theory is that the mayor is embarking on typical political strategy: get the controversial stuff out of the way fast, allowing enough time for the numbers to rebound by the next election.

“But in this case, his numbers are already low and we’re just talking about cutting services,” he said. “This is not likely to improve for him when he actually carries out some of this stuff. . . I think if the cutbacks are really of the magnitude (being discussed) it could hit him even harder.”

Hope for an emergent city-wide anti-Ford consensus isn't that unbelievable after all, it seems.