![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
rfmcdonaldThis post at The Economist's Game Theory blog, wondering why the NHL continues to invest in failing Sunbelt teams despite economic and sporting rationales to the contrary, is worth reading.
I think that the NHL only has a limited amount of time. A January 2011 History and Futility post I made argued that, slowly, as a result of ffactors including the high cost of equipment, the emergence of other sports, and immigration from hockey-lacking countries, the sport of hockey is on a slow decline in Canada. There's still a huge fan base--Quebec City is still trying to echo Winnipeg's achievement in getting its NHL team back--but will it last indefinitely? I fear not.
Although this year marks an unusual low, Canada has been in decline since the 1990s, when teams were lured to America by the promise of bigger audiences and a more lucrative television market. To the dismay of Canadians, it has been almost 20 years since one of their teams won the Stanley Cup (the Montreal Canadiens in 1993). Yet hockey has failed to capture the public imagination in America in the same way as baseball, basketball and American football, or to attract the support it enjoys in Canada. With Canada’s economy now in better shape than America’s, a few teams may be considering a move in the other direction.
The Phoenix Coyotes are the most likely to uproot themselves. Although the Coyotes have advanced to the conference finals in the Stanley Cup playoffs, turning in their best performance since making Arizona their home in 1996, they have been struggling financially. After declaring bankruptcy in 2009, they were taken over by the NHL. This year, they are expected to report annual operating losses of about $30m, despite receiving $25m in aid from Glendale, the suburban Phoenix community that owns their rink. Quebecois hope the Coyotes’ recent travails will persuade them to relocate to Quebec City, where Quebecor, the province’s largest media company, says it will support the construction of a C$400m ($400m) arena. Since losing the Quebec Nordiques to Denver, Colorado in 1995, locals have been desperate to acquire a new NHL side.
Even so, Gary Bettman, the NHL commissioner, wants to keep the team in Phoenix and may finally have found a buyer pledging to do so for another ten years. Although the NHL has denied those rumours, its resistance to a move north of the border would not come as a surprise. For a start, Glendale might object to any deal that would let the Coyotes depart Phoenix and leave the community with an empty arena. The NHL may also be unwilling to sell the team at the price suggested by prospective buyers, having sunk a lot of money into the Coyotes since 2009. Ultimately, the NHL may still believe that Phoenix is potentially a more profitable market than smaller Canadian cities. Mr Bettman was also the main force behind the strategy to relocate to America in the first place. He may think a retreat is tantamount to an embarrassing admission of a mistake.
Nevertheless, the NHL’s continuing enthusiasm for the Sun Belt is hard to fathom. Even before the sub-prime mortgage mess demolished the economies of many southern cities, hockey had struggled to win over the region’s sports fans. Back in the 1990s, the Canadian dollar was worth just 72–73 American cents, and its value had fallen to 63–64 cents by 2001–2, making it impossible for Canadian teams to match salaries paid in American dollars. But the loonie is now worth the same as the greenback. Bringing teams back to Canada would strengthen the league and make economic sense.
The latest incarnation of the Winnipeg Jets already provides some encouragement. Having moved from Atlanta last summer, the Jets just missed this season’s playoffs. But they won 37 games over the course of the season, three more than their seasonal average over their last four years in Atlanta, and were much better defensively, conceding 246 goals compared to the Atlanta average of 270. Could the difference have been down to the level of support they received at the MTS Centre in Winnipeg, compared with attendance at Atlanta’s Philips Arena? Within minutes of tickets going on sale, the Jets had sold out for the season. Average attendance per game in Atlanta was just 73% of seating capacity (although this still meant 13,469 fans per game, compared with 15,004 for each sold-out game in Winnipeg).
I think that the NHL only has a limited amount of time. A January 2011 History and Futility post I made argued that, slowly, as a result of ffactors including the high cost of equipment, the emergence of other sports, and immigration from hockey-lacking countries, the sport of hockey is on a slow decline in Canada. There's still a huge fan base--Quebec City is still trying to echo Winnipeg's achievement in getting its NHL team back--but will it last indefinitely? I fear not.
