[BRIEF NOTE] On Ramil Safarov, Azerbaijan, Hungary, and the Internet

[rfmcdonald]

The case of Ramil Safarov, an Aserbaijani soldier who gained worldwide notoriety in 2004 when, while in Hungary attending a NATO training session, hacked to death Armenian soldier Gurgen Margaryan and was subsequently sentenced to life imprisonment without chance of parole for 30 years, has eight years later produced more international turmoil. The Hungarian government extradited Safarov to Azerbaijan, where--contrary to promises, so the Hungarian government has stated--the man was given a presidential pardon and public honours. Armenian-Azerbaijani emnity is at a high, Armenians are now unhappy with Hungary, many Hungarians are unhappy with their government's actions, and the risk of a new conflict in the South Caucasus has risen sharply.

• Eastern Approaches concentrates on the Hungarian end of things. There are rumours afoot that the controversial Viktor Orbán government extradited Safarov in exchange for Azerbaijani promises to buy several billion dollars in Hungarian government bonds, while the affair seems to have been masterminded not by the competent Foreign Ministry but by "Viktor Orbán, the prime minister, and Péter Szijjártó, the minister for external economic relations".


• At Registan, Péter Marton outlines the case of Safarov, going into greater detail into the need of the Hungarian government--cash-strapped, needing cheap Azerbaijani natural gas--to keep its options with Azerbaijan open.


• Finally, writing at Al Jazeera, Sarah Kendzior notes that the presence of the Internet in Azerbaijan does nothing to dampen popular nationalism or soften an authoritarian regime when neither populace nor government wants to change. The central paragraphs of her essay are below, quoted.

The small petrostate of Azerbaijan has made headlines in 2012. In May, it hosted Eurovision, the annual singing competition watched by hundreds of millions around the world. As Azerbaijan's government spent more than $700 million on promotion and infrastructure in an effort to put its best face forward, activists focused on alerting the world to Azerbaijan's atrocious record on human rights.

Eurovision was seen as an "opportunity to highlight Azerbaijan’s failings", with the understanding that Azerbaijan's international image was of great importance to the Aliyev administration.

The Safarov case makes clear that it is not. While during Eurovision the Azerbaijani government paid lip service to democracy - "Azerbaijan is not an authoritarian state - we want to prove this to the whole world" an Aliyev aide told the Guardian - they have since brazenly promoted a murderer as a national hero, despite Western condemnation and a possible violation of international law.

Azerbaijani officials portray Safarov's murder of Margaryan as a capsule version of the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, a region which Azerbaijan and Armenia have fought over for decades. The conflict led to the deaths of thousands on each side, a massive refugee crisis for Azerbaijan, and the occupation of the territory by Armenia. Safarov versus Margaryan stems from Nagorno-Karabakh and serves as its representation. Only in this version, Azerbaijan won.

"Safarov's moral superiority was apparent even when he was in prison. The Armenian's insults towards our people, touching upon our national feelings, forced him to take this step," said Mubariz Gurbanli, a leading member of the ruling New Azerbaijan party. Gurbanli refers to an alleged desecration of the Azerbaijani flag by Margaryan and presents Safarov's response of hacking him to death as moral and justified.

The Safarov case serves as a warning to the West that they should never underestimate the insularity of dictatorships. Dictators struggle to shield citizens from foreign influence, with the result that foreigners come to believe that their influence matters. But the desire to block out the outside world stems from paranoia more than respect and that paranoia plays out in domestic politics - politics that strengthen pride by encouraging enmity.

Azerbaijan does not care what the rest of the world thinks. No action of a foreign power - be it international media or international law - has the resonance of revenge.