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rfmcdonaldThe CBC report of the import of the upcoming Ontario provincial by-elections in the ridings of Vaughan and Kitchener-Waterloo--respectively, a fast-growing suburban district just north of the City of Toronto and the better part of two cities in southwestern Ontario--is quite accurate.
If the Ontario Liberals kept Vaughan and gained long-standing Progressive Conservative-leaning Kitchener-Waterloo, they would have a majority, and given the strict party discipline that prevails in Canada this majority would give the Liberals more power and freedom from alliances with either the Progressive Conservative or the NDP. "If"; the NDP may be more likely to make a breakthrough, with the federal NDP's credibility and the Liberals' unpopularity with public-sector employees owing to the ongoing standoff with teachers.
If the Ontario Liberals kept Vaughan and gained long-standing Progressive Conservative-leaning Kitchener-Waterloo, they would have a majority, and given the strict party discipline that prevails in Canada this majority would give the Liberals more power and freedom from alliances with either the Progressive Conservative or the NDP. "If"; the NDP may be more likely to make a breakthrough, with the federal NDP's credibility and the Liberals' unpopularity with public-sector employees owing to the ongoing standoff with teachers.
Liberal wins in the riding of Kitchener-Waterloo and Vaughan would give Premier Dalton McGuinty the 54 seats needed to hold a majority in the 107-seat legislature. The Progressive Conservatives enter Thursday’s byelections with 36 seats while the NDP holds 17.
Polls in both ridings will remain open until 9 p.m. ET.
Most observers expect the Liberals will hold their seat in Vaughan, a fast-growing riding north of Toronto. Liberal Greg Sorbara held it for 20 of the past 22 years before quitting last month to focus on preparing the Liberals for the next provincial election.
The real fight is expected in Kitchener-Waterloo, where a three-way race is emerging between the major parties. Barry Kay, a political science professor at Wilfrid Laurier University, said it's rare to see such high stakes in a byelection vote.
"I don't know of a parallel situation in Ontario's history ... where one byelection could make the difference between a majority and a minority government," he told The Canadian Press.
McGuinty triggered the Kitchener-Waterloo byelection by convincing veteran Progressive Conservative Elizabeth Witmer to give up her seat to become chair of the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board. The riding is a traditional Tory stronghold — Witmer held it for 22 years — but the NDP has made gains in the area following McGuinty’s move to legislate a wage freeze for teachers.
Voters in Kitchener-Waterloo appear to have been turned off by McGuinty's attempts to get a majority, said Kay.
"I thought that would play better than it has," he said. "I think they are disinclined to give the party a majority. It's not just a neutral factor. I think it's a negative factor."
