[BRIEF NOTE] On Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada

[rfmcdonald]

The Montreal Gazette is one news source of many reporting that Justin Trudeau, eldest son of famed Canadian prime minister Pierre Elliott Trudeau and federal MP for Papineau, will be running for the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada. (This CBC report traces the leak of his plans to Radio-Canada.)

Trudeau refused to answer questions on Parliament Hill on Wednesday morning, saying he had nothing to announce before disappearing into a Liberal caucus meeting.

The reports could not be immediately verified, but if correct, the move will generate a massive amount of excitement and interest in the upcoming leadership race — at a time when the party needs it the most.

The 40-year-old son of Pierre Elliott Trudeau has been under immense pressure from Liberals across the country to throw his hat in the ring.

But there have also been fears that if he does so, other potential candidates will opt not to challenge him, and that the race will become little more than a coronation.

Trudeau had initially said earlier this year that he was not interested in the leaders’ job, but that position began to soften after he defeated a Conservative senator in a charity boxing match in March.

Then when interim Liberal leader Bob Rae announced in June that he would not be seeking the permanent position, Trudeau publicly acknowledged he was considering a run.

But Trudeau, who has spoken in the past about the devastating impact politics had on his parents’ marriage and how it affected him as a boy, has cited his young family when explaining why he is hesitant to throw his hat in the ring.

The Liberal leadership campaign officially begins on Nov. 13, with the next leader to be revealed during an event in Ottawa on April 13.

Justin Trudeau is probably the only viable candidate for leadership that the Liberals have, if (as makes good sense) one limits the candidates for party leadership to people with national name recognition who actually still hold seats. John Ibbitson's Globe and Mail analysis is something I basically agree with. Can his charisma really overcome the long list of problems facing a man with little political experience running for the leadership of a broke and fragmented political party that is facing collapsing support nationally?

[T]he young aspiring leader is also potentially a great danger to his party. He lacks, for one thing, any real experience leading a complex organization, and the Liberal Party is, if nothing else, complex.

Not just complex: atomized, disorganized, unpopular and broke. It would take a leader with the skill, patience and steadiness of a Stephen Harper to weld its disparate parts together and then lead it against a foe as intimidating as Stephen Harper.

[. . .]

While the Trudeau name may evoke nostalgic affection in the East, it remains anathema in the West. Choosing Pierre Trudeau’s son as leader may alienate the party from the Prairies and British Columbia for another generation. Do Liberals want to be that ostracized from the part of Canada that embraces the country’s future, its potential?

Finally, having Justin Trudeau in the Liberal leadership race may doom that race. Other credible contenders may decide it’s not worth the effort and expense to fight so prohibitive a favourite, leaving the young champion only fringe candidates to contend with.

[. . . T]he Liberal Party is being offered a politician with little experience, organizational acumen or concrete ideas for where he would take a troubled party if its leadership were entrusted to him.

That an individual with such a slender C.V. could be considered so strong a contender speaks to the fragility of the organization he seeks to lead.