[URBAN NOTE] Three links on Rob Ford's 2014 candidacy for the Toronto mayoral race

[rfmcdonald]

The CBC carried the story that Rob Ford was filing for re-election.

Toronto Mayor Rob Ford wasted no time relaunching his bid for re-election, officially filing his nomination papers Thursday shortly after the clerk's office opened on the first day for acceptance of nominations.

"I've got the strongest track record, I've been the best mayor this city has ever had," Ford told reporters shortly after submitting his nomination papers and officially declaring his candidacy in the Oct. 27 municipal election.

When asked about the personal problems that have dogged him throughout 2013, Ford, in a testy exchange with reporters, responded: "That's all personal. Let the people speak for themselves."

Dennis Pilon, a political science professor at York University, thinks Ford's might have a tough road ahead of him.

"I think that his coalition of support is going to break apart," Pilon said.

"The Rob Ford diehards are going to stick with him — they look pretty strong — but I think that the run of the mill Conservatives, the right of centre voters, some of them are going to decide to vote for maybe even a centrist candidate who they looks a bit more normal, acts a bit more normal than Rob Ford."

Torontoist's David Hains analyzespoll numbers suggesting that Ford is doing well. His base does seem to be consistent, but it may be overestimated. More importantly, other potential candidates have stronger approval ratings.

The problem for Ford is that one politician’s “resilient” poll numbers are another politician’s rut. Canadian mayors tend to have much higher approval ratings than their provincial or federal peers, and low- to mid-40s range is not good at all. Results from across the country give us a rough idea of the kind of approval ratings we should expect from an incumbent mayor, which is at least north of 50, and probably somewhere in the mid-50s to mid-60s range.

[. . .] Ford’s numbers don’t look too hot: he trails Olivia Chow by 17 points and John Tory by 10. It’s not as bad as you’d expect given everything that’s happened, but still not good. Worse still for Ford is a November 18 Ipsos poll that had Ford’s approval at 40 per cent. In that survey, voters approved of council as a whole at 57 per cent, and of their local councillor in particular at 74 per cent—again, it’s in light of the comparison that we get a sense of how Ford is really faring.

While the mayor’s approval numbers can tell us a bit, there are better ways to gauge a candidate’s chance of success in an election. As Ipsos pollster John Wright recently cautioned, this metric tends to indicate the upper band of a candidate’s support; actual voting numbers are almost always lower, and often substantially so.

There’s every reason to think this will hold true for Ford. Despite near constant campaigning over the past year and a half, the mayor struggles to win when people are surveyed about plausible mayoral matchups. Over the past two years, Forum has conducted 39 polls asking about Ford vs. Chow, with and without variations of other candidates included. Ford has led Chow a grand total of two times, both by one per cent; he tied her in a third. In the unlikely event Chow does not run, Tory has led Ford in 11 of 16 polls that include him but do not include Chow. In polls where Chow and Tory are not included but Ford and Karen Stintz (Ward 16, Eglinton-Lawrence) are, Stintz wins 10 of 12 times. Over the past two years of polling, one thing has been made clear: there are very few scenarios in which Rob Ford beats a serious candidate.

A big part of this problem is captured in a December 13 Ipsos poll question. Asked whether voters “would consider voting for Mayor Rob Ford in the next municipal election,” 61 per cent said no, and 39 per cent said yes. This might seem like another example of Ford’s famously enduring support—39 per cent is a good starting point for a campaign—but that’s looking at the glass half full. The question does not ask “will you,” but “would you consider.” In other words, only 39 per cent can see some scenario where they would vote for Rob Ford in 2014, while 61 per cent cannot. That 61 per cent is particularly firm: 48 per cent of the total number surveyed didn’t just disagree but strongly disagreed when asked whether they’d consider Ford. These numbers are absolutely awful for an incumbent.

Finally, writing for Toronto Life's The Informer blog, Steve Kupferman notes "Four lies Rob Ford told within minutes of officially launching his mayoral campaign".