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rfmcdonaldWhat do you think will be the likely outcome of what Wikipedia is calling the 2014 Crimean crisis?
I'm willing to bet that a likely outcome will be the emergence of a Russian satellite pseudostate, something not very different from neighbouring Abkhazia. (What the Crimean Tatars will make of this, I don't know. I'm willing to bet a significant worsening of ethnic tensions vis-a-vis the Crimean Russians.)
The critical question is whether or not Russia will move further into Ukraine. The three easternmost oblasts of Ukraine--from north to south, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk--have a combined population of just over nine million people, populations that are not only mostly Russophone by language but have substantial ethnic Russian minorities (a quarter of the population in Kharkiv, two-fifths in the other oblasts), and industrial economies closely tied to Russia. Will Russia try to carve these off with local allies, and perhaps others?
Discuss.
I'm willing to bet that a likely outcome will be the emergence of a Russian satellite pseudostate, something not very different from neighbouring Abkhazia. (What the Crimean Tatars will make of this, I don't know. I'm willing to bet a significant worsening of ethnic tensions vis-a-vis the Crimean Russians.)
The critical question is whether or not Russia will move further into Ukraine. The three easternmost oblasts of Ukraine--from north to south, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk--have a combined population of just over nine million people, populations that are not only mostly Russophone by language but have substantial ethnic Russian minorities (a quarter of the population in Kharkiv, two-fifths in the other oblasts), and industrial economies closely tied to Russia. Will Russia try to carve these off with local allies, and perhaps others?
Discuss.
(no subject)
Date: 2014-03-04 01:04 am (UTC)