[LINK] "The Russian-Chinese geopolitical game"

[rfmcdonald]

I suspect Immanuel Wallerstein's column at America Al Jazeera might have Chinese motives off. Chats with Chinese netizens make me suspect China places much less importance on the Russian link as grounds for a permanent and enduring alliance than Russia does. Still, it's worth noting.

The unilateral sanctions that the United States has already imposed on Russia because of its alleged behavior in Ukraine and the threat of still more sanctions has no doubt hastened Russia's desire to find additional outlets for its gas and oil. And this has in turn led to much talk of a revived "cold war" between Russia and the United States. But is this really the main point of the new Russia-China agreement?

“What China wants is not consonant with the prevailing ideological language in the United States. Nonetheless, there seems to be quiet support for such an evolution of alliances within the United States, especially within major corporate structures. ”

It seems to me that both countries are really interested in a different restructuring of interstate alliances. What Russia is really seeking is an agreement with Germany. And what China is really seeking is an agreement with the United States. And their ploy is to announce this "forever" alliance between themselves.

Germany is clearly internally divided about the prospect of including Russia within a European sphere. The advantage to Germany of such an arrangement would be to consolidate Germany's customer base in Russia for its production, guarantee its energy needs, and incorporate Russia's military strength in its long-term global planning. Since this would inevitably mean the creation of a post-NATO Europe, there is opposition to the idea not only within Germany but of course within Poland and the Baltic states as well. From Russia's point of view, the object of the Russia-China friendship treaty is to strengthen the position of those in Germany favorable to working with Russia.

China, on the other hand, is fundamentally interested in taming the United States and reducing its role in east Asia. But this said, it wants to reinforce, not weaken, its links with the United States. China seeks to invest in the United States at the bargain rates it thinks are now available. It wants the United States to accept its emergence as the dominant regional power in east and southeast Asia. And it wants the United States to use its influence to keep Japan and South Korea from becoming nuclear powers.

Of course, what China wants is not consonant with the prevailing ideological language in the United States. Nonetheless, there seems to be quiet support for such an evolution of alliances within the United States, especially within major corporate structures. Just as Russia wants to use the friendship treaty to encourage certain groups in Germany to move in the direction it finds most useful, so China wishes to do the same with the United States.