[LINK] "Defying Russian warnings, Moldova and Georgia head for EU pact"

[rfmcdonald]

Margarita Antidze and Alexander Tanas' Reuters article suggests that Georgia and Moldova, two post-Soviet states with problematic relationships with Russia, are heading towards the European Union. This will certainly worsen relations with Russia, and are themselves controversial within Georgia and Moldova. Still, the European Union's attractive force seems to be combining with Russia's repulsive force to produce decided shifts in Russia's post-imperial periphery.

Undeterred by the conflict triggered by Ukraine's swing towards Europe, the former Soviet republics of Moldova and Georgia will sign a trade and political pact with the European Union this month with Russia warning both countries against the move.

The two small countries - Moldova has a population of just over 3.5 million and Georgia 4.5 million - see the signing of an association agreement as the crucial step towards mainstream Europe, leading to eventual membership of the powerful EU trading bloc.

But, as has been shown by their regional neighbor Ukraine, Russia sees their westward move further away from Moscow's sphere of influence as a geo-political setback that could threaten its markets too.

Last November, Russia persuaded a now-ousted Ukrainian leader to pull out of an identical pact with the EU. When protests then chased him from office, Russia, in a backlash, annexed Crimea, and armed pro-Russian separatist groups sprang up in Ukraine's east and the battle there is still raging.

How Russia - which went to war with Georgia in 2008 - will react now remains the big unknown but officials have warned of "possible consequences".

With Moldova and Georgia harboring pro-Russian breakaway enclaves themselves within their borders - all of which are hankering after union with Russia and look askance on EU association - both states have valid grounds for concern from a Russian response to the June 27 signature.