[LINK] "Final Ontario projection: Likely Liberal, possible PC victory"

[rfmcdonald]

Over at Canadian politics blog Three Hundred Eight, Éric Grenier notes that, while not much seems likely to change as a result of this election, small fluctuations are possible. (A Liberal majority is possible, as is a Conservative minority.)

Kathleen Wynne's Liberals stand the best chance of forming government in today's Ontario provincial election, with a likely return to a minority legislature. Tim Hudak's Progressive Conservatives will likely form the Official Opposition again, though they stand an outside shot of taking power themselves. Andrea Horwath's New Democrats should retain their role as third party in Queen's Park.

The Liberals are projected to win between 42 and 55 seats, putting them just in range of a majority government (54 are needed), with between 35.4% and 40.6% of the popular vote. While this would be their fourth consecutive election victory, it could also be the least decisive of the four. The precise projection gives the Liberals 49 seats and 36.9% of the vote. That is little different from the 48 seats the party had at dissolution and the 37.7% the party took in 2011.

The Progressive Conservatives are projected win between 33 and 44 seats with between 34.3% and 39% of the popular vote. This does make a minority victory by the PCs possible. The precise projection gives the party 36 seats and 35.8% of the popular, again little different from dissolution (37 seats) and their electoral performance in 2011.

The New Democrats are projected to win between 18 and 22 seats with between 20.4% and 23.8% of the popular vote. There is a chance, then, that the NDP could put up their best numbers since 1990. The precise projection gives them one more seat than they had at dissolution with 22, and slightly less of the vote than they earned in 2011 at 22.2%.

The Greens flirted with a seat for a period in the campaign, but in the end are projected to remain shutout of the legislature with between 2.9% and 5.1% of the vote. The precise projection gives them 4% support, which would represent their second best performance.