[LINK] Two notes on changing party allegiances in Québec

[rfmcdonald]

The other day, Facebook's Mike kindly linked to Chantal Hébert's Toronto Star article, "Bloc Québécois MPs unlikely to stick around for next election". Continuing to lose support in Québec's regions, among non-Francophone communities, and among unions, the Bloc may plausibly disappear come the next election.

Of the four MPs who survived the NDP wave three years ago, two have since turned their backs on the Bloc. A fifth who crossed over from the NDP after the election is not expected to run again.

Ahuntsic MP Maria Mourani was shown the door by then-leader Daniel Paillé in the heat of the debate over the Parti Québécois’ proposed secularism charter last fall. She has since renounced sovereignty.

Jean-François Fortin who represents the eastern Quebec riding of Haute-Gaspésie—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia slammed the door on his way out last week. In a statement that was more akin to a manifesto than to a resignation letter, Fortin had nothing but harsh words for new leader Mario Beaulieu whose approach to sovereignty the MP described as folkloric.

Claude Patry was elected in Jonquière—Alma on Jack Layton’s ticket three years ago only to decide he did not belong in a federalist caucus a year later. But now he is chaffing under Beaulieu’s leadership and the new leader scrambled on Monday to talk him out of following Fortin out the door. Under any scenario, few expect this MP to seek re-election next year.

Of the remaining MPs, one — Richmond—Arthabaska’s André Bellavance — has yet to say a supportive word about his new leader since he narrowly lost the leadership to Beaulieu in June.

That leaves Richelieu MP Louis Plamondon who will celebrate the 30th anniversary of his first election (as a Tory) on Sept. 4. At 71, he is both the dean of the House of Commons and the most (only?) likely Bloc incumbent to stick around for another election. If he does he may get to turn off the lights on the party that he helped create almost twenty-five years ago.

CBC's Michelle Gagnon, meanwhile, wonders in "http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/never-mind-the-west-can-justin-trudeau-crack-fortress-quebec-1.2741145?cmp=rss">"Never mind the West, can Justin Trudeau crack Fortress Quebec?" exactly that question. Will the Liberals progress or will the NDP consolidate its gains? Much comes down to how the Trudeau name is perceived.

Belonging, of course, is key to politics in Quebec. The nationalism that divides party support provincially often cuts across partisan lines in the federal arena.

Being a native son, as Pierre Trudeau and Brian Mulroney were, or a reinstated one as le bon Jack Layton became, can often be a deciding factor in winning Quebec and forming a national government.

True, Stephen Harper's Conservatives have won successive governments without much backing from Quebec. But Conservative MP Denis Lebel's current 12-day charm offensive to court Quebec voters suggests that even they know the province is not to be discounted.

By all measures, Trudeau is undeniably from here, from Montreal in particular, where he spent his teen and university years after his father retired from politics.

His French is flawless, and his knowledge of the province's set-piece political battles almost intimate.

More, his stance on abortion, legalizing marijuana, and LGBTQ issues feel homegrown, in line with Quebecers' more progressive instincts.

But he is also the son of a man considered by many here to have betrayed his own. First, by invoking the War Measures Act during the 1970 October Crisis, and then by outmaneuvering Quebec and leaving it on the sidelines during the 1982 constitutional negotiations.