[LINK] "Europe's Herky-Jerky Russia Sanctions"

[rfmcdonald]

Bloomberg View's Marc Champion makes the case that apparent European Union caution on imposing more stringent sanctions against Russia over Ukraine might, or might not, be deeper. Much depends.

There is a straightforward explanation as to why the EU went ahead with adopting the new punitive measures despite the truce: It holds a deep suspicion that Russia -- which still denies any role in the Ukrainian conflict -- promoted a temporary deal precisely and solely to stave off those sanctions.

The real issue, therefore, is not whether ground offensives halt for a few days, but whether President Vladimir Putin withdraws his troops and equipment back to the Russian side of the border and seals it. So far -- and admittedly here we are largely reliant on information from unreliable witnesses, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Ukraine's government -- that doesn't appear to be happening.

If the EU really were delaying imposition of the newest round sanctions against Russia's state-owned oil companies and banks to leave time for Putin to start pulling back his troops, that would be smart. There are two reasons, though, to suspect that isn't the case.

The first is that in announcing the delay, EU President Herman Van Rompuy didn't mention a withdrawal. [. . .]

The second reason to doubt EU resolve (apart from its generally weak foreign policy record) is the identities of the nations that demanded the delay, which reportedly include EU countries that have had to be dragged kicking and screaming into supporting sanctions against Russia in the first place -- such as Austria, Cyprus and Slovakia.

We'll see if the terms of the cease-fire are implemented by both sides, in particular the sealing of the border by international monitors, and removal of all illegal units and equipment from Eastern Ukraine. And we'll see whether the EU responds by imposing the latest sanctions, should it become clear that Russian troops aren't pulling out. Georgia is still waiting for Russia to honor the terms of its cease-fire agreement, six years after the war there ended.