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rfmcdonaldFrom the RFE/RL Russian Political Weekly, the posting of 19 November 2003 (Volume 3, Number 46), the interesting article "Russia's Ethnic Groups By the Numbers," by Liz Fuller:
The population of the Russian Federation is not only dwindling as a whole, but ethnic Russians now account for a slightly smaller percentage of the country's overall population than they did at the time of the last Soviet census in 1989 -- 79.82 percent in 2002 compared with 81.54 percent in 1989. The total number of Russians fell over that period from 119.86 million to 115.86 million. That is just one of the findings from the preliminary results of last year's census, which were reviewed in two articles published in "Nezavisimaya gazeta" on 11 November.
One article was authored by academic Valerii Tishkov, an ethnographer and former Russian nationalities minister, who also compiled a table appended to the second article that showed statistical data for 1989 and 2002 for the 22 largest ethnic groups in Russia. The 2002 census collected data on a larger number of ethnic groups than ever before: 160, compared with 126 in 1989. Cossacks, however, of whom there are an estimated 600,000, were not listed in the 2002 census as a separate ethnic group, although respondents were given the option of identifying themselves as Cossacks in addition to their "primary" ethnicity.
In 2002, there were seven ethnic groups in Russia numbering over 1 million people: Russians, Tatars, Ukrainians, Bashkirs, Chuvash, Chechens, and Armenians. The Bashkirs have "overtaken" the Chuvash, moving from fifth place to fourth, while the Chechens ranked in 1989 as the ninth-largest ethnic group in Russia, and have registered one of the highest rates of natural increase (51.39 percent). The Chechens are, however, eclipsed by the staggering 91.45 percent rate of natural increase registered by their neighbors, the Ingush. But Tishkov cast doubt on the reliability of the latter figure, suggesting that the raw data from that North Caucasus republic were "inflated."
Other North Caucasus ethnic groups also registered high rates of natural increase. The number of Kabardians grew by 34.71 percent and that of Ossetians by 27.99 percent, with both peoples now numbering more than half a million. Daghestan showed even higher rates of natural increase among the Avars, the largest group in the republic (39.17 percent) and now the 10th largest ethnic group in Russia (up from 13th in 1989); the Dargins (44.41 percent); and the Lezgins (59.97 percent). Those peoples now number 544,000, 510,200, and 411,600, respectively.
Among the Turkic and Uralic-Altaic peoples, the Yakuts registered a 16.78 percent increase, and the Buryats 6.68 percent. Both figures are interesting in the light of a further demographic trend pinpointed in an article published in "Nezavisimaya gazeta" on 25 April, namely the steady migration of the population of the north and east of Russia to the central and southern regions. That article pointed out that of the seven federal districts, only the Southern and Central registered population growth during the inter-census period. In the case of the Southern Federal District, the overall increase can be attributed partly to the high growth rate registered among indigenous ethnic groups, but primarily to the influx of Armenians over the past decade.
Other ethnic groups in Russia, however, are declining at an even more precipitous rate than are the Russians. The number of Mordvins, who ranked seventh in 1989, fell from 1.073 million to 844,500, or by 21.3 percent. The Udmurts decreased from 714,800 to 636,900 (minus 10 percent), and the Maris from 643,700 to 604,800 (minus 6 percent).
For all the ethnic groups listed above, the primary factor behind the growth or decline in their numbers was the rate of natural increase. But the census data also reflect other key trends that are clearly the result of out- or in-migration. Thus, although Ukrainians preserved their 1989 ranking as the third-largest ethnic group in Russia, their numbers fell by one-third from 4.36 million in 1989 to 2.94 million in 2002, as thousands returned to Ukraine following the demise of the USSR. The numbers of Belarusians and of ethnic Germans likewise fell by one-third. By contrast, the number of Armenians in Russia more than doubled, from 532,400 to 1.13 million, while the number of Azerbaijanis rose by 85 percent, from 335,900 to 621,500. Armenian sources estimate the number of Armenians in Russia as even higher, at 2.5 million, of whom 1 million are believed to live in Krasnodar Krai and 600,000 in Moscow.
Curiously, although experts believe that almost as many Georgians have traveled to Russia in search of employment over the past decade as have Armenians and Azerbaijanis (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," 17 December 1999 and 10 January 2002), Georgians do not rank among the 22 nationalities for whom Tishkov provides data. That absence raises the question of how many Georgians in Russia either identified themselves to census takers as belonging to another ethnic group, or were among the 1.5 million respondents who declined to specify their ethnicity. Tishkov paid particular attention to the Tatars, pointing out that their numbers have remained more or less the same (5.552 million in 1989 and 5.558 million in 2002). He pointed out that if one subtracts from the 2002 total "sub-groups" such as the Siberian Tatars and Kryaschens (Christian Tatars), the final figure might show an overall decline in the number of Tatars, to the horror of Tatar nationalists. The Bashkirs, by contrast, registered a 24 percent increase during the inter-census period, from 1.34 million to 1.67 million. Participating in a roundtable discussion organized by RFE/RL's Tatar-Bashkir Service, Tishkov said one possible explanation for the discrepancy in growth rates between Tatars and Bashkirs is an increase in national self-awareness among the latter. In other words, some Bashkirs who identified themselves in 1989 as belonging to another ethnic group may have chosen to designate themselves as Bashkirs in last year's census.
Some of the preliminary findings of the census have already been questioned. Interfax on 10 November quoted current Nationalities Minister Vladimir Zorin as telling a Moscow press conference that there are 14.5 million Muslims in Russia (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12 November 2003). But Ravil Gainutdin, chairman of the Council of Muftis of Russia, rejected that figure, saying that there are at least 20 million Muslims in Russia, according to "Izvestiya" on 12 November. Gainutdin suggested that census takers failed to count all members of the Azerbaijani, Kazakh, Tajik, and Uzbek communities in Russia, which he estimated total 4 million people. Zorin subsequently explained that he had been misquoted, and that the figure of 14.5 million refers to those ethnic groups in Russia that have traditionally professed Islam.
epanastatis, satyadasa, you might be interested in this article given past discussion about the numbers of Chinese in Russia according to the recent census.
The population of the Russian Federation is not only dwindling as a whole, but ethnic Russians now account for a slightly smaller percentage of the country's overall population than they did at the time of the last Soviet census in 1989 -- 79.82 percent in 2002 compared with 81.54 percent in 1989. The total number of Russians fell over that period from 119.86 million to 115.86 million. That is just one of the findings from the preliminary results of last year's census, which were reviewed in two articles published in "Nezavisimaya gazeta" on 11 November.
One article was authored by academic Valerii Tishkov, an ethnographer and former Russian nationalities minister, who also compiled a table appended to the second article that showed statistical data for 1989 and 2002 for the 22 largest ethnic groups in Russia. The 2002 census collected data on a larger number of ethnic groups than ever before: 160, compared with 126 in 1989. Cossacks, however, of whom there are an estimated 600,000, were not listed in the 2002 census as a separate ethnic group, although respondents were given the option of identifying themselves as Cossacks in addition to their "primary" ethnicity.
In 2002, there were seven ethnic groups in Russia numbering over 1 million people: Russians, Tatars, Ukrainians, Bashkirs, Chuvash, Chechens, and Armenians. The Bashkirs have "overtaken" the Chuvash, moving from fifth place to fourth, while the Chechens ranked in 1989 as the ninth-largest ethnic group in Russia, and have registered one of the highest rates of natural increase (51.39 percent). The Chechens are, however, eclipsed by the staggering 91.45 percent rate of natural increase registered by their neighbors, the Ingush. But Tishkov cast doubt on the reliability of the latter figure, suggesting that the raw data from that North Caucasus republic were "inflated."
Other North Caucasus ethnic groups also registered high rates of natural increase. The number of Kabardians grew by 34.71 percent and that of Ossetians by 27.99 percent, with both peoples now numbering more than half a million. Daghestan showed even higher rates of natural increase among the Avars, the largest group in the republic (39.17 percent) and now the 10th largest ethnic group in Russia (up from 13th in 1989); the Dargins (44.41 percent); and the Lezgins (59.97 percent). Those peoples now number 544,000, 510,200, and 411,600, respectively.
Among the Turkic and Uralic-Altaic peoples, the Yakuts registered a 16.78 percent increase, and the Buryats 6.68 percent. Both figures are interesting in the light of a further demographic trend pinpointed in an article published in "Nezavisimaya gazeta" on 25 April, namely the steady migration of the population of the north and east of Russia to the central and southern regions. That article pointed out that of the seven federal districts, only the Southern and Central registered population growth during the inter-census period. In the case of the Southern Federal District, the overall increase can be attributed partly to the high growth rate registered among indigenous ethnic groups, but primarily to the influx of Armenians over the past decade.
Other ethnic groups in Russia, however, are declining at an even more precipitous rate than are the Russians. The number of Mordvins, who ranked seventh in 1989, fell from 1.073 million to 844,500, or by 21.3 percent. The Udmurts decreased from 714,800 to 636,900 (minus 10 percent), and the Maris from 643,700 to 604,800 (minus 6 percent).
For all the ethnic groups listed above, the primary factor behind the growth or decline in their numbers was the rate of natural increase. But the census data also reflect other key trends that are clearly the result of out- or in-migration. Thus, although Ukrainians preserved their 1989 ranking as the third-largest ethnic group in Russia, their numbers fell by one-third from 4.36 million in 1989 to 2.94 million in 2002, as thousands returned to Ukraine following the demise of the USSR. The numbers of Belarusians and of ethnic Germans likewise fell by one-third. By contrast, the number of Armenians in Russia more than doubled, from 532,400 to 1.13 million, while the number of Azerbaijanis rose by 85 percent, from 335,900 to 621,500. Armenian sources estimate the number of Armenians in Russia as even higher, at 2.5 million, of whom 1 million are believed to live in Krasnodar Krai and 600,000 in Moscow.
Curiously, although experts believe that almost as many Georgians have traveled to Russia in search of employment over the past decade as have Armenians and Azerbaijanis (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," 17 December 1999 and 10 January 2002), Georgians do not rank among the 22 nationalities for whom Tishkov provides data. That absence raises the question of how many Georgians in Russia either identified themselves to census takers as belonging to another ethnic group, or were among the 1.5 million respondents who declined to specify their ethnicity. Tishkov paid particular attention to the Tatars, pointing out that their numbers have remained more or less the same (5.552 million in 1989 and 5.558 million in 2002). He pointed out that if one subtracts from the 2002 total "sub-groups" such as the Siberian Tatars and Kryaschens (Christian Tatars), the final figure might show an overall decline in the number of Tatars, to the horror of Tatar nationalists. The Bashkirs, by contrast, registered a 24 percent increase during the inter-census period, from 1.34 million to 1.67 million. Participating in a roundtable discussion organized by RFE/RL's Tatar-Bashkir Service, Tishkov said one possible explanation for the discrepancy in growth rates between Tatars and Bashkirs is an increase in national self-awareness among the latter. In other words, some Bashkirs who identified themselves in 1989 as belonging to another ethnic group may have chosen to designate themselves as Bashkirs in last year's census.
Some of the preliminary findings of the census have already been questioned. Interfax on 10 November quoted current Nationalities Minister Vladimir Zorin as telling a Moscow press conference that there are 14.5 million Muslims in Russia (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 12 November 2003). But Ravil Gainutdin, chairman of the Council of Muftis of Russia, rejected that figure, saying that there are at least 20 million Muslims in Russia, according to "Izvestiya" on 12 November. Gainutdin suggested that census takers failed to count all members of the Azerbaijani, Kazakh, Tajik, and Uzbek communities in Russia, which he estimated total 4 million people. Zorin subsequently explained that he had been misquoted, and that the figure of 14.5 million refers to those ethnic groups in Russia that have traditionally professed Islam.
