[LINK] "Bloc's drop in Quebec a big chance for NDP and Liberals, polls suggest"

[rfmcdonald]

Writing for CBC, Éric Grenier suggests, on the basis of two recent polls, that the popularity of the separatist Bloc Québécois is continuing to collapse and that the Liberals and NDP--especially the Liberals--are taking advantage.

The polls were conducted by Quebec-based pollsters CROP (for La Presse) and Léger (for Le Devoir), each surveying 1,000 Quebecers via the firms' internet panels. CROP was in the field between Sept. 17 and 22, while Léger polled between Sept. 22 and 25. As these surveys were conducted online, a margin of error is not applicable.

The Léger poll pegged support for the BQ at just 16 per cent, the lowest registered by the company in more than a year. CROP, meanwhile, had the Bloc at just 13 per cent, confirming the historic low it had reported in its previous survey in August.

This is not just a case of fatigue with federal politics, but rather disinterest with the Bloc Québécois itself. Before removing the undecideds from the sample, both CROP and Léger estimated support for the provincial Parti Québécois to be 18 per cent. The very same people polled by the two firms gave the Bloc between 11 and 14 per cent support. In other words, roughly a third of respondents who would otherwise cast a ballot for the separatist PQ at the provincial level opted to support a federalist party at the federal level.

[. . .]

The Liberals have made inroads at the expense of both the Conservatives and NDP since the last election, as CROP and Léger placed the party at 34 and 39 per cent support respectively (up from 14 per cent in 2011). The NDP was down to 29 and 36 per cent respectively from the 43 per cent they scored at the ballot box 3½ years ago.