[LINK] "Byelection results show Liberals, NDP going in different directions"

[rfmcdonald]

CBC's Éric Grenier analyzed two recent federal by-elections, one in Ontario and one in Alberta. He argues that these indicate a continuing revival of Liberal strength across Canada, along with a pattern of NDP decline from its 2011 peak.

The Conservatives won both ridings up for grabs Monday with healthy shares of the vote, taking 49 per cent in Ontario's Whitby-Oshawa and 63 per cent in Alberta's Yellowhead. The Liberals finished a strong second in the former with 41 per cent, while garnering 20 per cent of the vote in the latter, the party's best performance there since 1993.

The New Democrats had no silver linings to find in the results, however, taking 10 per cent in Yellowhead and just eight per cent in Whitby-Oshawa, their lowest results in both since 2000.

[. . .]

The Liberals gained significantly in their share of the vote, almost tripling it in Whitby-Oshawa and increasing it nearly seven-fold in Yellowhead. The party picked up an average of 21.9 points in the two ridings, better than the average 18.6-point gain the party made in other byelections since Justin Trudeau became leader in April 2013.

The Conservatives dropped an average of 11.8 points, virtually identical to their average loss in other recent byelections. But that drop came from a higher share of the vote to begin with — the party actually decreased by a lower proportion on Monday than it has elsewhere since the last federal election.

For the New Democrats, the loss of an average of 8.9 points was worse than the party's previous byelection performances since 2011 (an average drop of 6.3 points).