[LINK] "Paris attacks: Who's next?"

[rfmcdonald]

Al Jazeera's Richard Giragosian argues that people looking for repercussions from the Paris attacks should look to the brittle North Caucasus.

In terms of this new cartography of terror, it is not Europe that is most vulnerable, however. Rather, it is the more remote regions that are most insecure, exacerbated by repressive authoritarian regimes offering more of an opportunity for entrenched insurgency to take root.

Although the low-intensity nature of these latent insurgencies have continued to impede Russian attempts to pacify and placate local grievances, the past several years have been marked by a fairly fragile, yet manageable period of control.

And the most vivid example is the Caucasus. Despite the apparent "stabilisation" of Chechnya and other earlier rounds of war in the North Caucasus, the lingering and restive insurgencies have festered for some time.

Although the low-intensity nature of these latent insurgencies have continued to impede Russian attempts to pacify and placate local grievances, the past several years have been marked by a fairly fragile, yet manageable period of control.

Yet, the recent events in Paris suggest a change, and will likely trigger a renewed cycle of violence and terrorism in the Caucasus.